Handicapper's Corner: Red Smith Handicap (G3)

A Closer Look at the Red Smith Handicap

By: The Turk 

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan and the Handicappers Corner for inviting me to share my thoughts with you today.

This is not a race or a track I would generally handicap.  It's not that I'm biased, I just find the variables too many and the motivations of the connections too varied regarding the starting of turf runners in a northern climate track in late November.  You have the tight inner track, the weather, the horses who are building towards next year, the horses who are looking for one last kick at the can, the grizzled vets who are on their way to amassing 50 starts in their careers.  You get it all post Breeders' Cup, late season racing.

 All that said, what these types of races are good for to me is isolation:  Almost all the runners are outside of the hype and BS marketing that can skew a horse players opinion of a race, and quite frankly very few of them I have played this year.  It allows me in the isolation of just my red gel pen annotated DRF Formulator PPs (an unpaid endorsement)  to study the data and bet purely on what I see on paper and a bit of video.

Let's get after it!

The NYRA website is one of the more friendly horse player track sites in my opinion.  You'll find scratches and changes and track condition here.  The weather Friday/Saturday is for rains to end around 4 PM Friday and be pretty dry and windy after that.  The inner turf track is listed as Good right now, I can't imagine it getting much better or worse but I'll take note of track conditions at end of today.  This is an inner turf race, you'll find a press release here describing the new inner turf course which was unveiled in late 2018 replacing the "all weather" inner track.  I have never played it, but take into account the turns are tight and the field is big.  The race does not start in the chute.

 
I'd argue the finish line is off a bit but you get the idea.



 

Sadler's Joy on pure class, current form, solid connections.  If I bet the race I'll most likely single him but I really need to get a feel from the tote board what the value proposition is on an exacta or trifecta.  Comes in off two solid Grade 1 efforts.  His late speed, tactical speed and the race distance should allow him to close but there is a chance he made be further back at the top of the stretch than he may normally like.  Again, based on tote board, I may cover him in place and show but a lot of that depends on the price I get for the four horse group I have in yellow.


I'll work backwards.  Red Knight is intriguing but may come to odds with a shorter price than morning line.  I love the Alvarado/Mott 25% strike rate at AQA with 72 starts.  Cutting back off a win.  Ran last year's edition of race (5th).


Roger Attfield's Tiz a Slam is training exceptionally well at Woodbine and ships in for this.  Late speed, cutback distance.  I don't care for gate position so his trip will have so much to do with his outcome.

I really like Nakamura.   Training well for Conditioner Motion, this 4 YO son of Motion's most famous trainee, Animal Kingdom (although Turk's favorite was Shared Account, daughter of another Turk Favorite Pleasantly Perfect- I think I digress) I like the late speed.  5 of 5 In the money in 2019 (one bump from 4th from DQ), 10 of 12 in the money over grass.


A million dollar purchase, Marzo has earned $263,000 in 16 lifetime races, the gelding goes for Trainer Michael Maker after bouncing through alot of barns.  7 of 9 in the money in 2019, 7 of 8 in the money over turf, alot of potential in the right hands and patience level.  

Glorious Empire is of course dangerous.  8 YO deserves  to wind down soon and this may be the swan song.  6-1 morning line seems generous, I don't see him in the top four.  

Red Right Hand is interesting.  6 of 7 in the money in 2019, early tactical speed, I question if the gelded son of Looking at Lucky is good enough, fast enough, to step forward and beat the top of my chart.  I don't think so, yet.

Another that is very interesting to me at the start of 2020 will be 4 YO Petit Fils (Fr) trained by Christophe Clement.  Clement is 9% first time Lasix, 10% First Time Trainer, 4% first time North America.  This talented gelding I will have my eye on next few starts.

This is purely a tote board play for me.  I feel pretty strongly that this is Sadler's Joy race to lose.  I will need to believe the tote board would reward me for his misfortune.  I'd love to see him get bet down to 6-5 or better and then I would come in with a box 1-3-4-8, a $2 Exacta for $24.

 I think that's my base handicap and bet.

Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Bob Hope Stakes (G3)

Baffert vs. O'Neill in Bob Hope Stakes

By: Laurie Ross, ThoroCap

The Bob Hope Stakes, formerly known as the Hollywood Prevue Stakes has been contested since 1981. The Grade 3 contest landed at Del Mar with a new name in 2014.

Let's take a look at the field.

 

The Stars of the Show

Bob Baffert has captured three of the last four editions of the Bob Hope. This year he sends out two of the six entrants, Thousand Words and High Velocity.

The $1 million Keeneland Sales yearling Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile - Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy) won his 6 1/2 furlong debut at Santa Anita as expected. After settling three-wide in fourth position off the pace, Flavien Prat urged the colt to pick it up around the turn. The pair gradually wore down the pacesetter Thunder Code to win by a half-length.

Baffert’s second charge High Velocity (Quality Road - Ketel Twist, by Dixie Union)  brought $350,000 at the Keeneland Yearling Sale. And as expected, he also captured his debut, a 5 1/2 furlong maiden race at Santa Anita. High Velocity chased the early pacesetter, caught him under urging and won going away by two lengths, galloping out much the best. High Velocity has four post-race 5-furlong breezes all increasingly faster. His pre-race work was a quick 1:00.40 gate breeze in company with Noble Order (unraced Union Rags 2YO). High Velocity rocketed out of the gate and was much the best while breezing under a loose rein.

Doug O'Neill also sends out two charges, Strongconstitution and Howbeit.

After winning his turf sprint debut convincingly at Del Mar, Strongconstitution (Constitution - Earlybird Road, by Cherokee Run) took on California-breds in the 6 1/2 furlong Sunny Slope Stakes. He didn’t have the best start, stumbling slightly, yet moved up the rail to sit behind the pacesetter, Fore Left, who won the Tremont at Belmont and placed in the Best Pal (G3). Strongconstitution hugged the rail around the turn and challenged his stablemate at the 1/8 pole. As the pair hooked up, Mario Gutierrez on Fore Left kept Strongconstitution and Martin Garcia pinned on the rail with little room. Strongconstitution was intimidated by the more experienced stakes winner, finishing second by a narrow head, but galloped out in front.  Strongconstitution returned with two sharp breezes, including a pre-race 4F :47.80 (1/12) at Del Mar. Note that he and stablemate Howbeit are the only two contenders with a recent work over the track.

Also Featuring

Howbeit (Secret Circle - Emerlaude, by El Corredor) figured things out in his fourth start, getting up to win a 5 1/2 furlong maiden race at Los Alamitos by three lengths. After that victory, he transferred to O'Neill’s barn and prevailed by 1 1/4 lengths in an optional claimer at Santa Anita. Howbeit has experience at Del Mar but his works aren’t as strong as his stablemates.  

Last out maiden winner Rager (Into Mischief - Distorted Champ, by Distorted Humor) won his debut sprinting on turf and the Andrew Lerner hopes to transfer that form to dirt. Rager’s debut was odd. He broke well and was initially tucked in behind the leaders, but was checked for no apparent reason, and lost about 4 lengths. Rager cut the corner and was hesitant between horses before Garcia switched to the right-handed whip. Rager mentally moved forward, and his body followed, winning by 3/4 length. Rager returned with two slow breezes.

After having his tail handed to him by Storm the Court and American Theorem,  Zimba Warrior (Khozan - Slick and True, by Yes It's True) found easier company at Fresno, winning in maiden company by 2 1/2 lengths. He shipped back to finish a distant third in the Sunny Slope.

Selections

The Bob Hope is an intriguing contest, despite being the typical six-horse field we’ve come to expect. There is usually one or two speed-happy front runners in most 2-year-old races, yet none of today’s entrants have shown that proclivity.

High Velocity is the only one with a recent gate work. He blasted out of the gate and kept going against an inferior foe, doing it on his own.

Despite the deep, tiring speed-favoring track, Thousand Words was able to wear down the pacesetter in his last.

Strongconstitution wired the field in his debut but returned to rate in the Sunny Slope, probably because he bobbled a bit at the start. He showed strong determination while being pinned on the rail, and has more experience than the two Baffert trainees. He’s also the only one in the race with a last out bullet work over the track.

Rager may turn out to be a nice miler over various surfaces; however, he’s still figuring things out. Taking on more experienced foes over a new surface may be more than he can handle. If he handles dirt throwback in his face, perhaps he could grab a minor award.

#6 STRONGCONSTITUTION (9-5)

#3 THOUSAND WORDS (7-5)

#5 HIGH VELOCITY (5-2)

#1 RAGER (12-1)

Handigambling: Unless one of the longer priced runners shows a new dimension, the ROI for this race will be single or low double digits. The race is still playable. If you don’t want to throw $100 at this race, I suggest having fun with exactas, tris and $0.10 supers using the top four selections. Replace Rager with Howbeit and Zimba Warrior in lower exotics for some supers.  

$100 ThoroFan Virtual Dollars:

$ Exacta box: #3, #5, #6 = $24.00

$1 Super box: #3, #5, #6, #1 = $24.00

$1 Super box:#3, #5, #6, #4 = $24.00

$1 Super box: #3, #5, #6, #2 = $24.00

Total Bet: $96.00

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Commonwealth Turf Stakes (G3)

Longshots at Play in Commonwealth Turf 

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

 

With heavy rain last Thursday, the Churchill Downs turf course should be soft. The weather prediction for Saturday is dry. Clint Maroon and Faraway Kitten have a strategic running style and have raced well on soft turf. However, the large field will demand great riding acumen from jockeys who know the course and their mounts well.

There appears to be sufficient early speed; seven in the field show ability to exit the gate quickly. Clint Maroon should be tracking the leaders and possesses a solid kick to excite the crowd as the finish line approaches. He won’t be alone; expect Pirate Punch, Knicks Go and Mr. Dumas to not let Clint Maroon run away. Tactically, here is how the race should set-up:

Early Speed: Which horses should be leading the field into the first turn?

• Osage Moon (Malibu Moon)
• Spectacular Gem (Can the Man)
• Louder Than Bombs (Violence)

Strategic Speed: Which horses should be in the second and third tier waiting to make a move in the second turn?

• Clint Moon (Oasis Dream)
• Pirate Punch (Shanghai Bobby)
• Marquee Prince (Cairo Prince)
• Tiz Plus (Tizway)
• Knicks Go (Paynter)
• Armistice Day (Declaration of War)
• Mr. Dumas (Majesticperfection)
• Faraway Kitten ( Kitten’s Joy)

Closing Speed: Which horses will be making their move down the stretch?

• Tobacco Road 1,7,14,15,16
• Tracksmith (Street Sense)
• Journeyman (Animal Kingdom)
• AE-Proliferate (Declaration of War
• AE-Clear Vision (Artie Schiller)

Spectacular Gem will likely take command on the far turn. Clint Maroon should make the first move to challenge Spectacular Gem with Pirate Punch, Knicks Go and Mr. Dumas making sure he doesn’t run away. The biggest late threat should come from Tracksmith; however it may be hard to surpass the five in the stretch. 

Here is how they will finish:

1. Clint Maroon (#3) (10/1)
2. Mr. Dumas (#11) (6/1)
3. Knicks Go (#9) (12/1)
4. Spectacular Gem (#6) (6/1)
5. Tracksmith (#7) (5/1)

Handigamble ($100)

$25 win on: Clint Maroon (#3) $25.00

$2 Trifecta Box: (Clint Maroon (#3), Mr. Dumas (#11), Knicks Go (#9) and Spectacular Gem (#6)) $48.00

$2 Trifecta Key: Clint Maroon (#3) over (#6,#7,#9 and #11) over (#6,#7, #9 and #11) $24.00

Good luck, but keep the day job!