Money can be made in Jockey Club Gold Cup
By: John DaSilva, Parx Oddsmaker
In this wild year of racing, it should be no surprise that
the 101st running of the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup came up with a small
field. While many have been critical of the depth and quality of the males this
year, there are so many opportunities for them to run so finding good fields
have been tough to find. But this field of five at Belmont Park is one of the
better races in terms of depth this year, with three Grade 1 winners and a
Grade 2 winner that many feel could be the best of his division.
Tacitus is a three-year-old that still has an outside
shot for the three-year-old championship. The Bill Mott trainee was the winner
of the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and Grade 2 Wood Memorial this year. He has
finished second as the favorite in his last three starts, the Grade 1 Belmont
Stakes, Grade 2 Jim Dandy and Grade 1 Travers Stakes. While some compare him to
Hofburg, he has definitely accomplished more than that Mott runner. With the
three-year-old division muddled with inconsistency, a victory here and the
Breeders’ Cup Classic could give him the championship over present divisional
leader Maximum Security. He drew the rail and just like the Travers, will
probably be closer to the front than usual. His regular jockey Jose Ortiz will
be aboard, and he is the 5/2 third choice on David Aragona’s morning line.
The morning-line favorite at 8/5 is Code of Honor.
The Shug McGaughey trainee has finally put things together, winning the Grade 3
Dwyer and the Travers impressively. Shug McGaughey said after the Travers he
wasn’t chasing championships so that is one of the reasons he skipped the Grade
1 Pennsylvania Derby last week for this spot. But a victory versus older horses
and Tacitus here could be enough in some eyes to overtake Maximum Security for
the divisional lead. Code of Honor might be compromised by the lack of quality
pace in the race so John Velazquez might have to move earlier to give Code of
Honor his best chance to win.
Vino Rosso has been a horse that was highly regarded
since his three-year-old season but has been inconsistent. But two starts back
he won his first Grade 1, The Gold Cup at Santa Anita. In the Grade 1 Whitney
last out, he stalked the pace and weakened to finish third to McKinzie. The
Todd Pletcher trainee loses regular jockey John Velazquez, but picking up Irad
Ortiz Jr. is not a negative. He is 7/2 on the morning line, but despite being
that low, he is the fourth choice on the line.
If races were won on the toughness of trainers, Preservationist
would be the winner already. On Monday, his trainer Jimmy Jerkens underwent hip
replacement surgery. On Wednesday morning, Jerkens was at Belmont to watch
Preservationist blow out in 36 1/5. Coming off a victory in the Grade 1
Woodward, Preservationist seeks his fifth victory in his last six starts. He
was an impressive winner over Catholic Boy in the Grade 2 Suburban this
distance in July. With a lack of quality pace, it would not be surprising to
see Junior Alvarado ask Preservationist set or be very close to the early pace.
He is the 9/5 second choice on the morning line.
The 30/1 longshot on the morning line is Olympic Village.
The Robert Hess Jr. trainee was claimed for $75,000 when making his seasonal
debut at seven furlongs at Saratoga. He has worked very well at The
Thoroughbred Center since that effort and now returns to route for his stakes
debut. He is three for four lifetime and the way racing has been this year, do
not discount his chances.
The mile and a quarter at Belmont starts on the far turn, so
it isn’t a true two-turn race. Inside horses seem to have an advantage and
horses good early speed seem to do well at the distance. The race could be won
by whoever can control the pace after the field straightens out for the run
down the backstretch.
I can see Preservationist getting control of the pace
over Tacitus and set relaxed fractions. The Jerkens trainee has been in
great form and should hold off all challengers for the victory, putting him in
line to be a horse to watch in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and in contention for
the older horse Eclipse Award.
While the prices will be short due to the short field, money
can be made. Despite being second choice in the morning line, I could see Preservationist
being an overlay third choice because of the public love affair with Tacitus.
Bet $40 to win on Preservationist.
$20 exacta part wheel Preservationist over Code of Honor
and Tacitus with a reverse $10 exacta part wheel.
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