Crowning the Cotillion Queen
By: Alex Sausville, Off The Turf Podcast
This year's edition has no shortage of exceptional talent as well, with several former Grade 1 winners setting the stage for one of the top races on the calendar. Chad Brown brings in one of his dirt stars in Guarana, an undefeated filly who has taken back to back Grade 1’s on the New York circuit. She will have to deal with many others, including the speedy Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress, who has run valiantly in back to back Grade 1’s for 2nd place finishes. The likes of Grade 1 winners Bellafina and Jaywalk join the fray along with several other contenders to make the 2019 Cotillion a wide-open race with exceptional talent.
My Analysis:
Despite
the heavily talented field that is set to go for the 2019 Cotillion Stakes, I
would assume there will still be a short-priced favorite in Guarana. A horse
that is 9/5 on the morning line and has done nothing short of spectacular in 3
career starts. One thing that does play well to Guarana’s strengths is the fact
that she does have an off the pace Grade 1 victory two back in the Acorn at
Belmont.
One
of the biggest challenges that will face this field tomorrow is just how much
speed will be shown from the group and whether that percolates any early speed
duels along the way. One horse that fits the mold of needing that type of
scenario to go the correct way is Serengeti
Empress. The Kentucky Oaks winner will be looking to get to the lead as she
does in all her starts, but will also be looking for an easy uncontested pace,
one that could be tough to find this Saturday. If Serengeti Empress does get an
uncontested lead on the front end, I do not think she will be beaten. However,
if she is pushed at all on the pace and based on the number of horses in this
field that seem to want the top, it feels almost inevitable, it will take a
gutsy effort to get the job done.
One
horse that could sit off the pace at a nice price and has been improving is Street Band. A winner of the Grade 3
Indiana Oaks this year, Street Band was a solid 3rd in the Alabama and is a
tactical enough horse to make a move if given the opportunity.
I am
expecting at least some level of speed from Serengeti Empress, Jeltrin, Jaywalk, and many others. If
that is the case, do not be surprised if it sets up well for a nice middle of
the pack closer as they turn for home.
One
horse everyone will be interested in seeing the performance of is Bellafina out of post 10. A multiple
Grade 1 winner at the age of 2, Bellafina just got back to the races with a
solid 3rd place finish in the Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga. It is tough to
tell what we are going to get out of Bellafina in this spot as she has not
shown similar tactics as she did as a 2-year-old. However, if the price is
right on Bellafina on Saturday she is absolutely worth the play.
The
one horse that I find even more interesting in this spot would be Horologist, who is coming off a nice
score in the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks where she defeated top contender Jaywalk.
Horologist has been ultra-consistent on the front end, but this may be a
different ball game for the horse. I do not question that Horologist is a good
horse, and I truly believe she can compete at this level. However, this race
just does not seem to be one that will set up too well for her, and that could
be a pretty big problem as time goes on.
My Bets:
$4
Tri - 1 with 3,6,8,10 with 3,6,8,10 = $24
$4
Tri - 8 with 1,3,6,10 with 1,3,6,10 = $24
$4
Tri - 1,3,6.10 with 1,3,6,10 with 8 = $24
Total:
$72
Conclusion:
As I
look more and more at the race, I can see it really playing out one of two
ways. Despite the number of super talented horses running, I see either Serengeti
Empress getting the lead and being able to settle, or she will get
pressured early and Guarana will be coming to pick up the pieces. I
think a nice spot to make some money in the wagering for this race will be a
couple of prices underneath of your tris and supers. I am not saying there is
no value to be had in many of these other horses, and there are so many quality
horses in this field. However, I see that being the way this race plays out,
and that is how I will take my swing for the Cotillion.
The Cotillion
is one of the top races in the US for the Filly Division, and we will get the
chance to see who can be crowned the “Cotillion Queen.” Grade 1 winners galore
all colliding for a super exciting 1 1/16 Miles. Will the crown land in the
hands of current champions like Guarana, Bellafina and Serengeti Empress, or
will the top class newcomers make their statement in the first $1 million race
of the afternoon? Only time will tell.
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