Handicapper's Corner: 2025 King's Plate Stakes

 

Fillies set to rule the Kings Plate Stakes

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

This Saturday, the stage is set for one of the most iconic events in North American racing: the 166th running of the King’s Plate, to be held at Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto, Ontario.

The King’s Plate is not only Canada’s oldest and most prestigious thoroughbred race, but also the longest continuously run stakes race on the continent — a tradition that dates back to 1860.

Named in honor of the reigning Canadian monarch, the King’s Plate is more than a race — it’s a celebration of Canadian heritage and excellence in horse racing. With its rich history, passionate crowd, and top-class competition, this is a can’t-miss event for racing fans from coast to coast.

This year’s edition, scheduled as race 9 on a 13-race card, with a 5:34 PM ET post time, will once again serve as the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, drawing the nation’s top 3-year-olds to compete over a mile and a quarter on Woodbine’s all-weather Tapeta surface, with a $1 million purse (CAD) on the line.

As always, the race has attracted an accomplished and competitive group of sophomores, with proven stakes winners and promising up-and-comers ready to test their class at Canada’s most famous distance.

A field of 13 runners is expected to enter the gate, headlined by No Time, the morning line favorite. Trained by three-time King’s Plate winner and Hall of Famer Mark Casse, the talented filly enters the King’s Plate off a decisive victory in the Woodbine Oaks, showcasing tactical speed and a powerful finishing kick.

Fillies have won two of the last three runnings of the King’s Plate, a trend that could bolster her chances. Casse will also send out Ashley’s Archer, a pace-pressing colt looking to make his own mark.

Kevin Attard, trainer of two of those recent filly winners, returns this year with Mansetti, a sharp Grade 2 Marine Stakes winner, along with Dewolf and Faber, both of whom could factor into the exotics mix.

Another three-time King’s Plate winning trainer, Josie Carroll, will saddle Notorious Gangster, who impressed with a win in the Queenston Stakes before a troubled runner-up finish in the Plate Trial, demonstrating both class and resilience.

With a mix of seasoned trainers, rising stars, and a strong showing from the fillies once again, the 2025 King’s Plate promises to deliver another memorable chapter in Canadian racing history.

RACE ANALYSIS:
The pace should be honest, with a few speed types vying early. No Time can settle just off the leaders and make her move turning for home, while Notorious Gangster should save ground early before launching his late run. Sedbury’s Ghost figures to be closing from the back, picking up pieces late.

Top 3 Selections:

1.   No Time (10) – Sharp filly with tactical speed and a big kick

2.   Notorious Gangster (3) – Classy colt who finishes strongly

3.   Sedbury’s Ghost (12) – Late runner who can grab a share

WAGERING PLAN: $100 Total

Win Bets - $50 Total

$30 Win on 10 No Time    

$20 Win on 3 Notorious Gangster   

Exactas - $30 Total

$10 Exacta Box (10, 3) = $20                                                                               $5 Exacta 10 over 12 = $5                                                                                     $5 Exacta 3 over 12 = $5     

Trifecta - $20 Total

$.50 Trifecta Key 10 /3,1,12 /3,1,12,4,11 = $10

$.50 Trifecta Key 3/10,1,12/10,1,12,4,11 = $10

Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!!                                                                        

  

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Arlington Million (G1)

  

Will it be a Mystikal Million?

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Hadicapper

I’ve always loved the Arlington Million. The history. The prestige. Everything about it. I’ve learned to continue my affection now that it’s at Colonial (R.I.P. Arlington). The sweeping turf course, like Arlington, gives everyone a chance.

Unfortunately, this year’s addition is a bit watered down with Saratoga running the Sword Dancer on the same day. But that doesn’t mean we can’t dope out a bet or two.

The Grade 1 is featured as race 11 of 12 with a 5:54 PM ET post.

Let’s look at the field: 

1.  Mystic Dan (9/2) – Things seemed to go south on the 2024 Derby winner for a few starts. Kenny seems to have him going good again. His Stephen Foster effort is better than it looks on paper. Mindframe stalked a slowish pace and held sway against Whitney winner Sierra Leone and Dan was only 2.5 lengths away. His turf work looked just fine, and I would expect him to transfer his form to the grass. WIN CONTENDER

2.  Time Song (30/1)  This speedy son of Not This Time has one win in 12 tries. Perhaps he can wire them, but it won’t be with any of my support. TOSS

3.  Vesting (12/1)  Mike Maker sends out another entrant that seems to like it up on the engine. He doesn’t seem like he needs the lead, however and could work out a stalking trip. He’s cutting back in distance but has only cleared his Allowance other than condition.    This is a G1, folks. TOSS

4.  Runaway Storm(20/1)  With only 8 starts on his card, Runaway Storm has a G3 win to his credit…2 years ago. This seems like a tall order, but this is the first time since that win that he has put three efforts in a row together. Perhaps he can get a slice. LONGSHOT CHANCE

5.  Cairo (IRE) (7/2)  Fresh off a placing in the Group 1 Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, Cairo (Ire) comes in with some solid credentials. His company lines alone make him fancied, but seems challenged in the win department. He is 0 for 12 over the last 2 years in top Euro company. I’m also suspicious of his forward style in a race with other speed types here Stateside.   TOSS

6.  Fort Washington (4/1)  He always puts forth a good effort to be there or thereabouts lately. He is a solid G2 or G3 runner. In this field, that makes him one of the most accomplished. I like his closing style in today’s speed laden event. On the downside, his last race seemed a bit flat as he was on his wrong lead finishing. He may relish today’s distance. WIN CONTENDER

7.  Grand Sonata (8-1)  Cuts back after a nice run at Monmouth in the United Nations, where he was second to a Chad runner. Grand Sonata has quietly amassed a $2.2 million bankroll and is another runner who seems to always show up and grab a slice. Not sure he can win here, but he will round out some exotics. BOARD RUNNER

8.  Integration (8/5)  Our morning line favorite is deserving of that role. Integration has been on a steady diet of G1 events running with the likes of Deterministic, Carl Spakler and Spirit of St. Louis. He has 3 wins and a 2^nd in four tries at Colonial, including a run in this race last year where he lost to Nation’s Pride – the Sword Dancer favorite. WIN CONTENDER

SUMMARY

The first question one must ask here is, can Mystik Dan transfer his form to the turf? If you answer that as a yes, he’s a major player. He will most likely be over bet based on familiarity.

The second question here is how much credit does one give to Cairo (Ire) coming in on top European form? For me, I respect his company, but I just don’t like forward running Euros in speed type U.S. races. He will take money, and I am looking elsewhere. 

Finally, this race sets up for both Fort Washington and Integration, with the latter garnering more support at the windows. 

THE BET:  (based on $100 wagered)

$30 exacta box – Mystik Dan & Fort Washington

$20 exacta Fort Washington with Mystik Dan & Integration

Good Luck!