Seeing Stars in the Haskell Stakes
Hey folks,
another exciting Triple Crown season is behind us, and the world of horse
racing gets back in action in a big way when eight three-year-olds compete for
the biggest event at the Jersey Shore – the $1 million Haskell Stakes, which is
set to celebrate its 56th renewal at Monmouth Park on Saturday.
The Haskell
is a part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" series,
with the race winner receiving an automatic spot with fees paid for the
Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday, November 5.
Highly
regarded runner, Arabian Knight, the G3 Southwest Stakes winner, who has not
had a competitive race in nearly six months, was installed as the 5-2 morning
line favorite and will be saddled by nine-time Haskell winning trainer Bob
Baffert
A pair of
Grade 1 winning horses who loom large in the 1 1/8-mile contest, Gustavo
Delgado-trained Kentucky Derby winner Mage and the Todd Pletcher-trained Tapit
Trice, standing next to each other in the starting gate, were made the
co-second 3-1 choice.
The Haskell has
been dominated by favorites in recent years, and overall, in 55 running’s of
the Haskell, the post time favorite has won the race 27 times.
The Haskell
serves as prep for the G1 Travers Stakes next month at Saratoga, and with three
different winners of the 2023 Triple Crown races, champion 3-year-old is there
for the taking — so now is the time for sophomore horses to stake their claim
for year-end honors beginning with a win here in the Haskell.
Since 2001,
the Haskell winner has gone on to capture Horse of the Year honors four times
and seven winners have been named the top 3-year-old, and both Tapit Trice and
Mage, each with a Grade 1 win on their resume, will be part of that discussion
with another G1 win here, especially the latter horse.
Post Time is
slated for 5:45 E.T.
Let’s go
through the field from the rail out.
PP – Horse –
Jockey/Trainer – ML Odds
1 - Geaux
Rocket Ride – Mike Smith/Richard Mandella – 9/2 - He was forced to miss the
G1 Santa Anita Derby in April due to an illness, but he returned nicely from
that absence in June to take the Affirmed Stakes. He has won 2 of 3 races and
his other finish was a second place showing in the G2 San Felipe. This bay colt
is eligible to improve but is sure to get tested in his first start outside of
California. Drew inside and that should allow him to get a nice stalking trip
from the rail. The last time trainer Mandella brought a horse to the Haskell,
the West Coast conditioner won it with Dixie Union in 2000.
2 - Awesome
Strong – Jose Batista/Jorge Delgado – 30-1 - As a juvenile, this colt
followed up his winning maiden debut by convincingly sweeping the Florida
Stallion Stakes series at Gulfstream Park. He then subsequently went to the
sidelines and resurfaced last month at Delaware Park where he looked flat in
his fifth-place effort. He’s a longshot for a reason.
3 - Salute
the Stars - Joel Rosario/Brad Cox – 8-1 - He had some trouble in the early
going of the Pegasus but rallied determinedly through the stretch to nip the
race favorite, Kingsbarns, by a neck over this oval last month. He went into
that event off an allowance score at Churchill in his season debut back in May.
Another move forward could be enough to put him in the mix for the win. Cox has
won the last two editions of the Haskell.
4 - Mage
– Javier Castellano/Gustavo Delgado – 3-1 - His bid to become the sports 14th
Triple Crown winner ended with a third-place finish in the Preakness, where the
Derby champ ran well but was the victim of a slow pace, which certainly
affected his closing run. Up until the Preakness, Mage trained and raced
regularly since January, so the quick turn around after wearing the roses two
weeks earlier may have also affected his performance in Baltimore. All in all,
it added up to a refreshening for a summer campaign which begins now.
Obviously, this is strictly a prep for the Travers, but his appearance here
must be respected, and he could have a say in the outcome.
5 - Tapit
Trice – Luis Saez/Todd Pletcher – 3-1 - Prior to the Triple Crown, he was a
winner of the G3 Tampa Bay Derby and the G1 Blue Grass and now looks to get back
to those winning ways following a seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Derby
and then third in Belmont. Has had some issues getting untracked after the
starting gate opens, so Saez will need to keep him alert and then hope for a
clean break. Tapit Trice is a deep closer who makes one-run from about the top
of the stretch so if all goes well, and that’s a big IF, look for him to be
motoring late. He has previously won at this nine-furlong distance.
6 - Howgreatisnate
– Paco Lopez/Elizabeth Dobles – 20-1 - This bay gelding won all four of his
starts as a juvenile, then lost his rider in his 2023 seasonal opener in the G3
Gotham Stakes. His disappointing showing in the Private Terms Stakes in his
next race prompted his owner to make a change in trainers. The barn switch paid
off as the horse won the Long Branch Stakes here on opening day in a convincing
hard-fought battle. A third-place finish in the Pegasus here last month was his
most recent effort where he stalked the pace throughout but was no match for
the top two finishers. A win over the local surface is always a plus, but the
water is deep here.
7 - Extra
Anejo – Tyler Gafflione/Steve Asmussen – 5-1 - Things looked good in 2022
for this colt after winning his maiden by nearly 10-lengths and he was considered
for the 2023 Derby trail, but as luck would have it, issues arose, and he was
taken out of Derby consideration and sent to the sidelines. After a seven-month
layoff, he resurfaced in May on the Derby undercard and his one-length defeat
that day, after breaking poorly, is the lone blemish that has kept him from
being unbeaten after three races. He is a lightly raced improving runner who
ships into Monmouth Park off an impressive 6 ¼-length allowance win last month
at Ellis Park. Time to show if he can compete with the big boys.
8 - Arabian
Knight – John Velazquez/Bob Baffert – 5/2 - This $2.3 million son of Uncle
Mo won his first two races for Baffert, taking a seven-furlong maiden race by 7
1/4 lengths on the Breeders' Cup Day undercard at Keeneland last November, then
steamrolled to a 5 1/2-length win over a sloppy Oaklawn Park track in the G3
Southwest Stakes in January. Due to Baffert’s suspension by Churchill Down, the
talented colt was transferred to trainer Tim Yakteen’s barn to be given an opportunity
to compete for Kentucky Derby points but was withdrawn from consideration in
March when he disappointed during a morning workout, and then it was decided
the horse would be pointed to a summer campaign. At the time of his removal,
Arabian Knight was the second choice behind champion Forte in the Kentucky
Derby future betting. The probable pace setter has been working lights out.
ANALYSIS
The main
track at Monmouth during the current meet has been favoring speed horses big
time, with either front-runners or early-pressers having dominated over 70% in
dirt routes. Traditionally on Haskell Day, the dirt surface is like a paved
highway and if it is again on Saturday, it certainly will aid a few contenders
and likely hinder two big names.
Arabian Knight,
Geaux Rocket Ride, Salute the Stars and Extra Anejo are horses that could
benefit from how the track has been playing, while Mage and Tapit Trice, who
both have the class to win this, but come from off the pace and the latter from
even further back, may not get an ideal setup for their respective closing run.
Either horse can win, but I’ll play against the Derby winner and the Blue Grass
winner.
Arabian
Knight is the lone front runner, he possesses big time speed, his sizzling
workout pattern has him ready for this nine-furlong distance. For me, it
doesn’t matter if the horse hasn’t raced in nearly six months, he goes out for
Baffert who excels at getting horses to win off extended layoffs. Bottom line,
Baffert owns this race with nine wins and many of them have come via horses
with blazing speed. In addition, Arabian Knight will be ridden by John
Velazquez who is a terrific judge of pace. The Baffert/Velazquez team is a
lethal combination.
Salute the
Stars continues to improve after being transferred to the Brad Cox barn. The
colt has won two in a row for Cox and 3 of 4 lifetime. He paired up speed
figures in his last two starts, vastly improved from his two-year old season
and this being his third start off a layoff could signify a peak performance.
In his last race, he did run down Kingbarns who looked home free late in the
Pegasus, and that was after being steadied early, a bit rank and getting
shuffled back. He should be in a good position just behind the pace setter.
Geaux Rocket
Ride gets the services of Mike Smith, who has won this race three times.
Together they should enjoy a nice inside stalking trip. Mandella is a stranger
to these parts, so when he shows up with a talented horse that has a chance to
win a million-dollar event, one must respect.
Extra Anejo
annihilated the competition in his two victories and now moves into stakes
competition for the first time. The Asmussen colt is getting better each start
and might be any kind. He could settle in a nice position behind the leader or
possibly challenge on the front end. This is his third race after the long
vacation and a peak effort here is a possibility if he handles the class jump.
As mentioned
earlier, Mage and Tapit Trice appear to be at a pace disadvantage unless a
challenger or two decide to push Arabian Knight and force a swift pace that
tires out the front flight. If that scenario unfolds, look for one of them to
be your winner.
The other two
horses, Awesome Strong and Howgreatisnate, have the running style that is
winning at Monmouth, but both are outclassed and should not be any factor.
PLAY
Let the odds
dictate - If Arabian Knight is anywhere near his morning line odds, I
will make him a win bet and box him in exactas with Salute the Stars, Geaux
Rocket Ride and Extra Anejo, as all four runners fit the current
winning track profile.
If the odds on the Baffert runner dip too low,
then my betting strategy will be to still box him with the three mentioned
horses, but I’ll play Salute the Stars to win instead.
The odds
should be generous, he has Brad Cox in his corner, a recent win over the
surface, favorable running style and I believe this horse has more to give. I
like how he’s coming up to the race in his current form cycle.
Good luck and
as always, enjoy the race!!
