Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Rebel Stakes (G2) Div. 1

Improbable vs. the rest in Rebel Stakes Div. I 

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

Over the last 18 years, the Rebel Stakes has produced a roll call of elite stars that figure prominently in the Triple Crown events.  Fans at Oaklawn have seen the likes of American Pharoah, Smarty Jones, Curlin, Afleet Alex, Lookin at Lucky, Oxbow and Creator compete in the  1 1/16 mile Grade 2 event.  

   

The Rebel was split into two divisions in order to give the beleaguered California horses a Kentucky Derby prep. Let’s take a look at Division I.

The Invaders

Improbable — There have been comparisons made between this colt and Justify. Both are huge Chestnuts with lots of chrome, and both have been unstoppable. As a juvenile, Improbable looked like a much older horse in the Street Sense on Breeders’ Cup day, both physically and in his demeanor. If he runs like he did last year, you’re looking at the Rebel winner. Contender.

Galilean — Vote him most likely to steal the race if Improbable stubs a hoof. Hollendorfer’s charge has been terrorizing the California state-bred class his entire life and has the speed figures to handle this. Beware California speed on the front end. Contender.

Extra Hope — It’s nice to see an old timer like Mandella with a Derby horse. Extra Hope wasn’t in the same class as Improbable and Mucho Gusto last year, but this is a new year. They could be drag racing on the front end early, which would benefit Extra Hope and Mike Smith.  A finish in the top 3 wouldn’t surprise me.  Contender.

Easy Shot — The Desormeaux charge didn’t embarrass himself in the RB Lewis Stakes. He wasn’t going to catch Mucho Gusto, and just missed second to Gunmetal Gray by 3/4 length. A better start could see him in with a shot. Exotics.  

Local Hotshots

Long Range Toddy — Richard Eramia did a nice job of getting Long Range Toddy over to the rail from post 10 in the Southwest Stakes.  The problem is that they got stuck behind a wall of horses around the turn and Long Range Toddy was stopped momentarily behind a tired Gray Attempt.  Eramia sent Long Range Toddy between horses, and the colt responded, lengthening stride and grabbing the third spot.  Jock switch to Jon Court, from Long Range Toddy’s regular jock Eramia, who jumps on Easy Shot. A good trip puts him right there. Contender.

Classy John — Here’s an interesting colt. Never out of the money beating up on state-breds and he’ll be winging it on the front end. That last race at Delta Downs wasn’t bad, but (there’s always a but), his pedigree and running style screams speed. He’ll liven things up early, and fold like a lawn chair in the stretch. Maybe he can hang on for a minor award.

Creatively Placed

Corruze — Chis Hartman shakes things up, switching from turf sprints to dirt routes with this son of Into Mischief. No reason it won’t work. Corruze’s half-sister Rugula placed in the Fantasy (G2), and Honey Bee Stakes at Oaklawn and most of his other half-siblings were best on dirt. Over the last five years, Hartman is 21% with the turf to dirt switch, but speed figures aren’t the best.  Lower Exotics longshot, at best.  

Ninth Street — Big horse in a small pond at Delta Downs.  They had to send out a search party to find him after the Southwest. Blinkers off might help him find the finish line faster, but he’s gonna need a lot more than that. Pass.

Proud Nation — Rumor has it they had to hold up the start of the next race in order to let Proud Nation find the finish line in his 3-year-old-debut. The full brother to Golden Rod (G2) winner West Coast Belle is still a maiden and belongs in either Race 1, 3 5 or 11. The race’s “why?” horse. Pass.

Track bias:  Over the last ten years, we’ve seen a transformation of the Rebel Stakes into a display of California speed, and Bob Baffert’s charges have dominated six of the last eight editions. Pace pressers have won four of the last ten Rebels, while pacesetters won three. Late running closers have hit the board in the last three editions.

Selections:

I’m not going to get creative and look for a long-shot winner.  Baffert owns this race; he’s saddled six of the last ten winners.  Improbable’s outside post is to his benefit. He can get a clean trip settling off the pace on the outside. The distance is well within his scope, so going wide shouldn’t bother him, and there’s not much in here to challenge him, and just 80% fitness would still get him the victory.  Galilean to Improbable’s inside can go to the lead or sit off what could be a contentious pace. He’s Improbable’s biggest threat. 

#9 IMPROBABLE

#8 GALILEAN

#1 EXTRA HOPE

#2 LONG RANGE TODDY

Handigambling

Your best bet is to hope Improbable isn’t cranked for his best and a longshot surprises. It happened last week in the Gotham when “can’t lose” Instagrand did just that, in his first start off a long layoff. Use Improbable on some tickets, and leave him off in a few others.  Let’s toss a few more horses into the mix for the exotics.  

$0.20 Super Key: 9/8,1,2,7,4,3 = $24

$0.20 Super Key: 8/9,1,2,7,4,3 = $24

$0.20 Super Key: 1/8,9,2,7,4,3 = $24

Total bet: $72

Note: If Improbable looks hot and bothered in the post parade, take a look at the other listed contenders. If their odds are attractive, toss a few dollars on them across the board.

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Gotham Stakes (G3)

How to Make an Instagrand in the Gotham Stakes

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

Saturday at 5:40 pm eastern time is the Grade 3 2019 Gotham Stakes for 3- year-olds. This is a Derby Prep race with points given to the first 4 finishers of the race. This is important as the top 20 horses with most Derby prep points get into the Kentucky Derby.

Here is your field:

#6 Instagrand – Undefeated at 2-0 but has had a long, long layoff, not racing since August. This colt out of Into Mischief, has looked fine in workouts but hard to put our money down on a 1-1 favorite who hasn’t raced in 7 months. He may indeed be the best horse in the race, but you will get no value betting him.

#7 Not That Brady – Comes off a nice 103 Beyer Speed figure on this same track as runner up to Tax in the Withers Stakes. That was at 1 1/8 miles and now he will cut back to the mile. He will be outside of the speed horses so if he sits off the pace and makes the right move, we really like this horse, especially at the morning line odds of 5-1. A must use in all your exotic plays.

#4 Much Better – With no racing at Santa Anita Race Track Trainer Bob Baffert is shipping one of his many 3 year olds out east for a shot at some Derby prep points. He debuted on the grass before shifting to dirt racing. He comes off a 6 ½ allowance win at Santa Anita. His sire is Pioneer of the Nile, same Sire of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. It doesn’t hurt that Mike Smith also comes east to ride this horse. His morning odds are a juicy 10-1.

Our strategy will be on the Exacta’s and Trifecta’s hoping Not That Brady or Much Better can come out on top with Instagrand finishing in the place or show position. We are looking for value and bypassing any win bets on Instagrand.

Wagering/Betting Handigambling Bankroll: Here is our $100 worth of betting for the race

Exacta Box: $5 Exacta Box ($30)

4,6,7

Trifecta ($10 Box for $60 Total)

4,6,7

Win Bet-$10

7

As always, watch the Board and if at the track watch how the horses look in the Paddock and adjust your bets accordingly. Good Luck!

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Tampa Bay Derby (G2)

Defining the Tampa Bay Derby

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

Saturday marks the 39th running of the Tampa Bay Derby, whose $400,000 purse makes it the richest race of the season at Tampa Bay Downs.  In addition, it offers Road to the Kentucky Derby Points to its top four finishers – 50, 20, 10, and 5 to the horses placed first through fourth, functionally punching its winner's ticket to the Derby and going a long way to get its second-place finisher there.

Only one winner of the Tampa Bay Derby has parlayed that win into Kentucky Derby glory. Street Sense, coming off a championship juvenile season, made his three-year-old debut in the 2007 Tampa Bay Derby. Engaged in a stretch duel with Any Given Saturday, he prevailed by a hard-fought nose. After landing on the wrong side of a similarly close photo in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, Street Sense rode the rail to victory in Louisville. One other horse who has hit the board in the Tampa Bay Derby has won the roses: Super Saver, 2010 Kentucky Derby winner, opened his three-year-old season by finishing third behind Odysseus in this race.

In recent years, the Tampa Bay Derby has proved fertile ground for Belmont runners.  In 2016, winner Destin finished second in the longest race of the Triple Crown, as the Todd Pletcher trainee was just nosed out by Creator.  The following year, Tapwrit did one better for the Pletcher barn come June, edging clear to claim the Belmont.  However, the best of last year's Tampa Bay Derby horses bucked that long-winded trend.  World of Trouble, third as the favorite in the 2018 edition of the race, has emerged as a top sprinter on dirt and turf, and finished second behind Stormy Liberal in the 2018 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint.

 This year’s edition of the Tampa Bay Derby drew a field of eleven, including both winners of Tampa’s series of three-year-old dirt stakes: Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) winner Well Defined and Pasco Stakes winner Win Win Win.

As with any race over this track, a major question is whether some of the major contenders will like Tampa Bay Downs or not.  The track has a well-earned reputation for being one that horses either love or hate.  Good horses who ship in from elsewhere are sometimes not the same when they try the Tampa dirt; other times, horses who may not be quite as good elsewhere can run inordinately well over the deep, sandy Tampa footing.

Out of eleven entrants, only three have raced at Tampa.  All three are winners: the two stakes winners, as well as Lord Dragon, who needs a huge step forward from a maiden score.

From a pace perspective, the race appears to hinge upon what Zenden does from the outside.  Well Defined is going to go to the front – he did so when the won the Sam F. Davis, all his best races have come on the front, and he has the early pace to outjump anyone inside him and save ground from a good spot.  Zenden stretches out to two turns for the first time and has crackling sprint speed.  However, he has never led at first call, proving that he can rate – and he may want to do so even at this route distance, from the outside spot, instead of being hung outside while trying to get to the front into the first turn.  Given how well Tampa Bay Downs can play for speed on big race days? 

This uncertainty is great news for Well Defined, who looms a threat to grab the early lead and make it a merry chase all the way around.  And, with “name” trainers like Todd Pletcher, Mark Casse, and Bill Mott sending horses, Kathleen O’Connell’s youngest barn star might go off at an overlaid price yet again.

We know Win Win Win likes the track – in his only try over the course, he won the Pasco by open lengths, in track record time.  But we don’t know if he is going to take to the distance, since he has not gone any longer than that seven-furlong distance.  Pedigree is a mixed bag: the top side (Hat Trick) suggests he could stretch out, though the bottom side suggests shorter distance.  It’s certainly not a Classic pedigree, but a mile and a sixteenth is, at least, not a stretch.  The other big question is how Win Win Win gets out of the gate.  In his first two starts, he raced near the pace and win a pair of five-and-a-half-furlong sprints.  In his next two, both at seven furlongs, he didn’t start out well, settled well back, and rallied.  Perhaps he gets out of the gate better this time – he posted a gate drill on February 24^th and gets a switch to Irad Ortiz for this race.  Despite the questions about the distance, the known form over the course combined with the reasons he can improve make him a candidate to live up to his name once again.

Beyond these two, the field gets far more muddled.  The next tier of contenders includes Zenden, Dream Maker, and Tacitus.

Zenden’s early speed may prove to be an asset, and the connections appeal: he gets 28% Tampa Bay rider Samy Camacho in the saddle, and Victor Barboza has been choosy and successful with his shippers to this track this meet.  The question with Zenden is the distance – he has never stretched out past seven furlongs, and being by talented sprinter Fed Biz from a sprinting female family, his ability to stay two turns is a serious question.

Dream Maker has rider Florent Geroux, who won the Tampa Bay Derby last year, and he took a nice step forward in a route allowance last month at Fair Grounds.  That race has been franked, with second-place Courtyard coming back to win an allowance.  However, his win in the Fair Grounds allowance ranks has kind of a “big fish in the small pond” feel, and trainer Mark Casse hasn’t hit the board with any of his four Tampa shippers so far this meet.

Tacitus, unraced since a maiden win last November at Aqueduct, has plenty of upside with more ground and more age.  But, the Tapit son of multiple G1 winner Close Hatches is marooned in the 10 hole, and the connections (Bill Mott and Jose Ortiz for Juddmonte Farms) suggest he may get overbet.

Across these three, the cost-benefit analysis works out best with Zenden.  Despite the pedigree questions, in a race without a surfeit of early zip, his sharp early speed speaks loudly, especially when an excellent local rider signs on.

Selections:

#5 Well Defined (7/2)

#7 Win Win Win (5/2)

#11 Zenden (8/1)

Longshot:  Outshine may get the most attention from the optional claimer at Gulfstream on February 10 – after all, he won the race, and his trainer Todd Pletcher has won five editions of the Tampa Bay Derby.  However, between the pedigree questions and the fact that John Velazquez will ride at Aqueduct instead, he isn’t the one I’m interested in from that race. 

The horse placed second, #8 The Right Path (15/1), has longshot appeal.  He crossed the wire third but was placed second behind pacesetting longshot Admiral Lynch, who drifted out into his way in the lane.  The Right Path was close to the pace in that race, more attentive to it than the chart points might suggest, making him interesting in the likely case of a speed-friendly track on Tampa Bay Derby day.  Distance is a question, but the pedigree appeals.  She is by Quality Road out of an unraced Bernardini granddaughter of blue hen Yarn.  The connections appeal, as well; rider Joe Bravo doesn’t need to take his track with him, and trainer Jorge Duarte is a high-percentage Gulfstream trainer who remains relatively unknown among those who don’t follow that track closely.