Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Bing Crosby Stakes (G1)

  

The Doctor Diagnoses the Pace

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chair 

The race is named for entertainer Bing Crosby, a founding partner of Del Mar Racetrack and a racehorse owner and breeder. Its inaugural running came in 1946, as it completes its eighth consecutive year this year. In 1946, the race ended in a dead heat between War Allies and Indian Watch.

This year will be a perfect Southern Californian day for racing, with the temperature hovering around seventy-eight degrees with zero chance for precipitation. Nine horses, 3-year-old and up, will run six furlongs for a share of the $400,000 purse. Featured as race 10 of 11, post time is 6:40 PM PT

Let us look at the field.

 

 

1.   Maximum Bourbon (Maximum Security) comes to Del Mar for the first time to take on horses that have more graded experience than him. By the purchase price of $400,000, his connections think highly of his chances. He belongs to a cohort of horses that appear to want a fast pace.

2.   Listenupshance (Shancelot) This one has a similar challenge against this field. His last showed his prowess in a grade three race, The True North at Saratoga on the undercard on Belmont Stakes Day, which he lost by 3/4s of a length to Book’em Danno. Jockey Jaramillo returns to ride. He is 2-for-2 at Del Mar, which should mean something.

3.   Dr. Venkman (Ghostzapper) The race is the second of a layoff, before which he ran third in the 2925 in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (GI). He has won four out of seven tries at Del Mar. His running style suggests he will love the likely early pace. Jockey Rispoli, who piloted him in that Breeders’ Cup race returns.

4.   For All Mankind (Into Mischief) He is a private purchase at an undisclosed amount which suggests the owner has extreme confidence in him. Although his performance will have to improve greatly to have his picture taken against these.

5.   Stronghold (Ghostzapper) He won his last race in 2026, a grade three, by 2.5 lengths after about a seven-week layoff. With five grade one races under his girth this group is in his wheelhouse.

6.   Cornucopian (Into Mischief) He is trained by Bob Baffert, who holds the record for wins in this race. His last highlighted his speed by recording a 103 Beyer, which paired him with four others who topped the 100 level. Could go wire-to-wire if the others are not paying attention.

7.   Gold Sweep (Speightstown) Although new to Del Mar and stepping up in conditions is one who will love a speed duel. Gets Jockey Money Mike Smith, who is at home at Del Mar and can never be counted out. His bullet workout screams ready.

8.   Mad House (Vekoma) Comes in with a bullet workout and a 102 Beyer in a gate-to-wire race at Oaklawn Park in a grade three event in April. Has the hard-knocking, all-business jockey Leon, who has won with him in similar fashion in March. He will be blasting out of the gate hoping to get in front for the rest of the race. Big challenge.

9.   Moon Light (Audible) Victor Espinoza, his new jockey, had better be ready to call an audible at the right time as he closes from far back down the stretch. A win is a tough ask, since his showing in grade three races leaves much to be desired.

 

The key to sorting through the race is pace. Four of the horses run their best on the front end, suggesting that the pace in this six-furlong event will be hot, with a good chance they will be vulnerable to off the pace runners. The one and the six are most likely to endure the pace but suffer from it. The two and the three will be coming in the stretch trying to pass the front runners.

Here is how I believe the race will end: 

#3-Dr, Venkman (4-1)

#2-Listenupshance (8-1)

#6-Cornucopian (3-)

#1-Maximum Bourbon (7/2)

 

Handigamble ($100) 

$20 to win on Dr. Venkman $20

$40 to place on Dr. Venkman $40

$2 Exact Box—Dr. Venkman/Listenupshance/Cornucopian $12

$1 Trifecta Box-Dr. Venkman/Listenupshance/Cornucopian/Maximum Bourbon $24

$4 to treat yourself. 

Good Luck but Keep the Day Job!

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Haskell Stakes (G1)

 

Is Further Ado Really the Haskell Horse to Beat?

By: Robert Marks, (@theyreinthegate)

We have a Grade 1 race for 3-year-olds at Beautiful Monmouth Park this Saturday, 1 1/8 miles on the Dirt with a $1,000,000 purse. The Haskell features a short but competitive field featuring 4 horses of the 7 runners who ran in a Triple Crown race this year.  The event is carded as race 12 of 14 with a 5:45 PM ET post time. 

Here is who we like:

Further Ado at 2-1 is your morning line favorite. With this short price, let’s look elsewhere for better gambling choices. 

Iron Honor (3-1) Trained by Chad Brown with Flavien Prat as the Jockey, this horse is our best value win bet.  If you have been playing Saratoga this summer, you already know that Flavien Prat is hot with a bunch of multi-win days up at the spa.  Iron Honor looked great placing second in the Preakness, and his tactical running style fits Monmouth perfectly. He has been resting for 2 months with a nice 4-furlong workout last week. Seems primed for this race, he will be tracking the leaders before making a sustained move

   The Puma (7-2) trained by Delgado Gustavo, with Luis Saez aboard, he has the highest last-race speed figure in the field. He also has a win over Further Ado, the favorite, in the Tampa Bay Derby.

   As always, pace makes the race, but if the early leaders collapse, his closing kick could put him in the winner’s circle. He is coming off a long 112-day layoff, so he might need a race, but certainly worth a look if his odds stay or creep higher come post time. Will be coming late regardless.

    Ocelli (6-1). This Whit Beckman-trained colt with Tyler Gaffalione on board is still a Maiden. It’s not for lack of trying, as he has 9 starts, with 2 place finishes and 4 show finishes. He’s run in the Kentucky Derby, finishing third, then fourth in the Preakness after getting bumped at the start and second in June at the Ohio Derby after leading in the stretch. He is a stalker type and always finds a way to be in the mix; he just can’t figure out how to win. He has Curlin as his grandfather, so he’s bred for these types of races.  Once again, I don’t see him winning, but he can get in the Trifecta.  He is all class and always competes.

This will be an interesting race.  We look for a moderate to fast pace with Iron Honor making a move at the final turn, tracking the pace setter Napoleon Solo. Further Ado will be there too, but for value purposes, we are tossing him and hoping for a big score. The Puma and Ocelli should both be coming down the stretch late.  As always, watch the horses in the paddock and the odds as Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$5 Trifecta Box: Iron Honor, The Puma, Ocelli (total bet $30)

$10 Exacta Box:  Iron Honor, The Puma, Ocelli (total bet $60)

$10 Win Bet: Iron Honor (Total bet: $10)

 

  

Hndicapper's Corner: 2026 Caress Stakes (G2)

  

 

Picking against the favorite in Caress Stakes

By: MaryJo Moncheski, ThoroFan Handicapper

The $250,000 Grade 2 Caress Stakes drew six older fillies and mares who will sprint 5 1/2 furlongs over the Saratoga turf course. Carded as race five of 11, post time is 2:47 PM ET. 

It is a short field for the G2 Caress Stakes. I don’t like to play superfectas on fields with six or fewer horses as it’s not worth the payout. With that being said, I am going with a trifecta using 3-6-5. Most people may pick 1. Zeitlos or 4. Sunna. I will start with these two, then dive into who I do like.

Zeitlos has a lot of things going wrong for her. She hasn’t won a race in 10 starts. She was so close in the G3 Winning Colors at Churchill Downs on May 25, 2026; however, she just missed. Zeitlos has been consistent, running in fifth or fourth position at every quarter pole in every race. She has won with Jockey Jose Ortiz, though.

Now, Sunna has consistent speed and has won her last three starts… and that’s where she loses me. Jockey Joel Rosario picks up her mount. I simply cannot trust Rosario to deliver. He has been on a little hot streak as of late, though, not enough for me to trust he’ll see Sunna over the finish line. I like to see horses that have changes in distances, especially the last three races. There’s nothing wrong with a horse that likes one certain length of distance; however, they can eventually get bored. Sunna is jumping in class pretty big, too.

For these reasons, I am knocking those two from my picks. Let’s take a look further.

TOP PAIR: 3-6

I really love 3. Italian Soiree with Jockey Dylan Davis. She has the speed to beat the short field as well as experience in this class. Trainer Graham Motion brought her back from a six-month layoff to win and earn a 93 Beyer Speed figure. While she finished second by a length in her last race, I like that she was consistently moving every quarter. Her speed figures haven’t been consistent, but I think she has what it takes to get to the lead.

Of the Trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. horses in this field, I like 6. In Our Time the most. She could be the rabbit for 2. Movin’ On Up. In Our Time won coming back after a layoff and currently fits my “rested criteria”: off 30 days, paid under $4.80 last time out, at least 10% win rate of total lifetime starts, and has speed. The only reason I didn’t put her on top is that she will likely be the heavy favorite. It is better to put heavy favorites in the middle.

Lastly, to round out my trifecta, I have 5. Obstreperous. Jockey Jaime Rodriguez has been on fire in New York. Out of 17 starts in the Saratoga meet, he already has an 18% win rate and a 22% Jockey/Trainer combo win rate with Trainer Michael Simone. This horse has the speed capability to win; however, my only hesitation is bumping up significantly in class. Last year, Obstreperous raced in the Caress when it was downgraded to a G3 and placed ninth. Her workouts have been pretty good, so we’ll have to see if she can handle this short field.

Trifecta: 3,6,4

3. Italian Soiree (7-2)

6. In Our Time (5-2)

5. Obstreperous (15-1)

 

  

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Belmont Oaks (G1)

 

 

Fireworks at the Spa: Handicapping the Belmont Oaks

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper 

Happy 250th, America!  You don’t look a day over 225.  What better place could there be to eat hot dogs and drink a cold beer on the 4th of July than Saratoga Race Course? 

NYRA has put together a stellar card for the festivities, and The Belmont Oaks is one of four graded stakes on offer.  As one would expect, a competitive cast of 10 has signed up for this prestigious G1 for 600k. 

Post time is 4:06 PM ET.  Projected Track Condition: Firm, good, soft? Really, who knows?  It’s Saratoga, where storms pop up randomly.

Let’s look at the field:  

1.   Just Aloof (8-1) Some will say this is “The other Chad” as Chad Brown also sends out Fitz Right for whom his main rider Flavien Prat “chose” over this one.  ‘Aloof may be overlooked in this spot off that.  But she’s a horse that has tactical speed from the inner turf rail, seems improving and is a neck and a half from being undefeated.  She’s kept good company and will face a few familiar faces in here.  Any improvement, which Chad seems competent in doing, puts her right there.  Manny Franco picks up the mount, which is fine.  He makes the most of it when given the opportunity. 

2.  Time to Dream (12-1)  Looked like the goods last year, winning her 1^st two starts over this course.  She went off 4-1, 2^nd choice (behind today’s foe, Ultimate Love) in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last fall.  I’m not so sure she has taken a step forward from her 2yo form to her 3yo form.  Her last race, again at Saratoga, was a step in the right direction.

3.  Kensington Lane (IRE) (10-1) This Irish-bred from the yard of Donnacha O’Brien has run 3 times this year.  She won a G3 and was beaten 5 3/4 lengths in a G1 at the Curragh.  Her pressing running style concerns me as US races are generally run at sharper paces.  Can she carry the speed another eighth of a mile?

4.  Faithful Departed (5-1)   Has already won at today’s distance while taking the G3 Regret at Churchill.  What a dream trip she had that day, riding the rail and catching a split in the stretch.  The foes she beat both had wide trips, with one of them in today (Storm’s Wake) and the other, who came back and won by 5 lengths on Stephen Foster Day at Churchill last weekend.   I’m wary of perfect trip winners right back. 

5.  Storm’s Wake (10-1)  Ran a bang up second to the aforementioned Faithful Departed in the Regret G3 last out.  Storm’s Wake ran an improved race visually.  Not only was she hooked wide on both turns, but, as a deep closer, she put herself much more into the race.  Don’t hold the fact that she lost ground in the stretch against her.  She is a strong closer, but just gave up too much ground to the rail-skimming winner.  Her trainer Brian Lynch has been on a tear this year with a 25% strike rate.

6.  Fitz Right (6-1) As mentioned, Flavien sticks here for Chad.  I get it.  She’s won 3 in a row “climbing” the class ladder.  She’ll appreciate the added ground.  But, again, she’s coming off a perfect trip win and will most likely be shorter than her 6-1 ml.  She seems like a grinder to me and will need to trip out against the likes of these.  This is the toughest group to date.

7.  Carmenista (ARG) (30-1)  Will be the longest shot on the board.  She did close in a decent allowance race on Belmont Day, but the top two finishers ran away from her in the stretch.  I think there are other stronger closers in this field.    

8.   Abashiri (GB) (5-2)  It’s no secret that Charlie and Godolphin send the right horses here for these races.  Abashiri (GB) sure looks the part.  Yes, she has only one win, on synthetic last year, on her scorecard.  But her two runs this year, one in the English 100 Guineas and the other in the Irish version 3 weeks hence, were bangers.  Her company lines are simply better than those she faces here.  That said, she also has that Euro forward style and will be the betting favorite. 

9.   Ultimate Love (10-1)  She entered last year’s Breeders’ Cup undefeated and was bet to favoritism.  She ran well.  Didn’t really finish but ran well.  Her comeback race this year was in the Hilltop, a 125k stake at Laurel on Black Eyed Susan day.  She ran ok but didn’t pick up a loose leader.  Again, she didn’t really finish but ran well.  Those efforts aren’t going to be good enough against these.  Perhaps she improves immensely.  She’ll have to.  You will get paid if she does.  I’ll wait and see… 

10.  Imaginationthelady (4-1)  What’s she done wrong?  She’s progressed from her 2yo form, where she just missed against Storm’s Wake and then won the Edgewood G2 on the Oaks undercard.  She gives you an honest try every time, puts herself in good spots and doesn’t seem to need any particular type of track.  On the downside, she also was a perfect trip winner in her last and breaks from the outside.  I would want more than her 4-1 morning line, but it wouldn’t surprise me if she was right in the picture again. 

SUMMARY 

I’m not solving any great mysteries here by telling you that Charlie Appleby and his Blue Brigade will be tough here.  The odds board will tell you that. 

What I can offer you is that you will see some improved efforts from a few of these at fair prices, and that’s where my focus will land. 

Storm’s Wake at 10-1 ml and Just Aloof at 8-1 ml offer great value.  Of the two, I lean slightly more with Storm’s than Aloof because I like when dead closers get more aggressive in their races.  They have less to do in the stretch.

THE BET:  (based on $100 wagered)

$30 win Storm’s Wake

$6 exacta box Storm’s Wake, Just Aloof, Abashiri (GB)

$10 exacta box Storm’s Wake & Abashiri

$14 straight Exacta Abashiri – Storm’s Wake