Over
the next two weekends, a quartet Kentucky Derby prep races offering
100-40-20-10 qualifying points to the first through fourth place finishers will
be contested. At the end of the prep series, that began last fall, the Top
Twenty horses accumulating the most points throughout the prep races are
awarded berths in America's most famous race. For those horses that are
currently lacking in points to safely put them in the starting gate on Saturday,
May 6th, their accomplishments in this quartet of final prep races, all run at
1 1/8-miles, will ultimately decide if they have passed the Derby audition.
Three
of the four will be run this Saturday, one of those races, the Santa Anita
Derby, is covered here.
The
Santa Anita Derby, the premier Kentucky Derby prep race on the West Coast, has
long been a great race. The list of horses that have won this event over the
years is truly remarkable - Swaps, Sham, Triple Crown winner Affirmed, Winning
Colors, Sunday Silence and, more recently, California Chrome.
A
low point for the Santa Anita Derby came from 2007 through 2010, when the race
was conducted on a synthetic surface, and California horses weren't at their
best. However, since 2011, when the race returned to dirt, it has once again
proved prolific, by producing two Kentucky Derby winners (2012, 2014), as well
a pair of horses that went on to finish second (2016) and third (2015) on the
first Saturday in May.
The
top spot in the California 3-yr old division is wide open following the
defection of Mastery from the Kentucky Derby trail, so the Santa Anita Derby
winner will likely head to Louisville as one of the leaders for the Run for the
Roses.
A baker's
dozen will take to the track at the "Great Race Place." 9
of the 13 horses that make up the field come from the stables of
three Kentucky Derby winning trainer’s - Doug O’Neill saddles a
quartet of horses, Bob Baffert enters a trio and a there's a pair
from John Sheriffs. It should be noted that Baffert, who won the Triple
Crown two years ago with American Pharoah, currently doesn't have a single
horse with enough points to make the Derby field. Like I stated at the outset
of this preview: It’s time to get serious.
Post
time for this important G1 prep is 3:30 pm E.S.T.
Let's
take a look from the rail out.
PP -
Horse/Jockey/Trainer
1-
Term of Art/Baze/O'Neill--This
race marks the fourth and final prep Santa Anita offers for Kentucky Derby
hopefuls, and this colt competed in the first three. Improved
his finishing position in each of those three starts, including runner-up
to Mastery last out. Closed from off the pace to win the Cecil B Demille stakes
in late November at Del Mar, a race originally scheduled for the turf course. Closer
drew the rail, so he’ll need to work out a trouble free trip just to get a
piece with his late run.
2 -Reach The World/Smith/Baffert--Grey
colt didn’t race as a 2-year old, which is a big negative when you’re talking
Kentucky Derby. Made his debut in January, and in three lifetime starts,
all two-turn events, he has recorded a win, a second and a third. Is in
good form and now takes on stakes company for the first time. Based on his
pedigree, there's potential for a break-out performance at this
9-furlong distance.
3
-Battle of Midway/Nakatani/Hollendorfer--Another
horse that debuted in January where he won by over three-lengths. Off that
race, he went straight into stakes company in the San Vicente where he
burned a lot of bettor’s money as the 4-5 favorite in an 8-length loss to
Iliad. Show his gameness when rebounding back to win a first condition
allowance by a neck, over Reach The World, when stretched out to
two turns. This colt has been a factor every time out.
4
- Comma Sister/Ocampo/Papaprodromou--Was
well-beaten by 8-lengths in his only two dirt starts last fall, despite
finishing third in his maiden debut. Was shelved for nearly four months before
reappearing in February and winning on the turf. Connections are shooting for
the moon in this spot.
5
- So Conflated/Gutierrez/O'Neill--Won
the California Derby on synthetic at Golden Gate in his two-turn debut. Sent to
Louisiana for the Risen Star Stakes at Fairgrounds, but was scratched
after drawing a wide post. Then shipped to New York's Aqueduct to
contest the Gotham Stakes, but never got involved in the running, finishing
sixth. Now back in California where he's run well, including a second-place
finish on this track. and maybe the confides of home will bring about a better
performance.
6
- American Anthem/Garcia/Baffert--Displayed
talent in first two races, including a narrow loss in the slop behind Gormley
in the Sham Stakes. His last start in the Rebel was an absolute
disaster. He didn't get a good start and ripped off a shoe during the
running. Clearly a valid excuse for his poor 10th-place outing, so I'm
willing to draw a line through it. Recorded spectacular works pre-and-post
Rebel. Loses Mike Smith who rode the last two races, but Martin
Garcia rides regularly for Baffert and together they have combined for
many graded stakes wins.
7
- Kimbear/Talamo/Kruljac--Scratched
out of Sunland Derby two weeks ago to go here. Has placed in 5 of 6 career
starts. Makes stakes debut having finally broke maiden ranks last time
out over this course back in late February in an impressive performance.
Prior to that, he recorded a third and a second respectively in MSW
races. Is working lights over the track surface. Can his latest
success step him up to victory against this competition?
8
- Gormley/Espinoza/Sheriffs--Won
at first asking as a 2-yo, then stepped up in class against a tough field
to score in the G1 Frontrunner Stakes at Santa Anita. Flopped in the
G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile where he finished 7th. Started off 3-yo
season by narrowly winning the Sham Stakes in the slop over American
Anthem after a lengthy duel on the front-end, finishing 13-lengths in
front of the others. Mastery totally dominated the San Felipe, but this
colt challenged on the far turn before fading to fourth. Has already
proved himself one of the better horses out West.
9
- Iliad/Prat/O'Neill--Is the best of the foursome sent out by
O’Neill. Broke his maiden in his second try, then following a two-month
respite, he won a 5-horse San Vicente, but did it impressively enough to emerge
as a contender toward Kentucky. In the San Felipe, his first two-turn try, he
couldn’t keep up with Mastery through the far turn and had to settle for
second. Son of Ghostzapper is a seriously talented horse and shouldn’t be
ignored.
10
- Milton Freewater/Pererira/O'Neil--Six of
this colt’s seven starts have come sprinting and against state-bred horses,
with a couple of wins to show for his efforts. He stepped out of the Cal-bred
races for the first time last month and was runner-up facing entry level
allowance company. The farthest he’s raced is 1-mile, and that came at Los
Alamitos in a third-place finish in the King Glorious Stakes, a race won in
2014 by a 2-yo named California Chrome. Is in good form, but this is the big
stage now.
11
- Irish Freedom
/Bejarano/Baffert--The highlight for this colt after two starts, was his maiden
win in his debut last summer. After being away for over six months, he returned
early last month and was given the opportunity against first level allowance
rivals in his first route try, finishing fifth. His effort there was okay,
considering he needed a race, but he should be back in against that level of
competition, rather than be facing this group.
12
- Midnight Pleasure/Theriot/Ruis--
Colt has been okay so far. Owns a win and two third place finishes in four
career starts. Won his debut at Del Mar last summer and followed that with a
decent third in the G1 Del Mar Futurity in September. Was third again last time
out again in an allowance optional claiming company over on this track last
month, That followed on the heels of a 5-month break after a fourth-place
finish in the G1 Frontrunner Stakes last fall.
13
- Royal Mo/Stevens/Sheriffs--From the connections that gave us
Zenyatta and Derby winner Giacomo, this colt wired a maiden field going 1-mile
in his third start to close out his juvenile year. He opened his 3-yo campaign
in identical fashion to win the Robert Lewis Stakes. He then headed to Oaklawn
for the Rebel, but had no excuse for his disappointing ninth-place finish.
Looks to turn around his last race form and also prove he can compete
successfully in top stakes company.
Analysis: With the absence of Mastery, the race has
become a wide-open contest and that is main reason why so many 3-yr old horses
have come out of the woodwork for a chance to stamp their “go to Louisville”
ticket.
For
me, too many questions arise and too many variables abound, making this contest
very tough and difficult to decipher, but I’ll do the best I can.
Since
the beginning of the current Santa Anita meet last December, a total of just six
races have been run at the 9-furlong distance, but front-runners have been
successful nearly 85% of the time. That bodes well for Gormley, who seems comfortable running on the lead. Last race, he
was unable to outrun Mastery to the front, and backed up after battling for a
half- mile, However, he did wire the field in the G1 Frontrunner Stakes and
basically won the Sham in a front running head-to-head battle with American
Anthem. The latter race was run over the sloppy Santa Anita surface, and with
rain in the forecast on Saturday in Arcadia, it helps strengthen the basic case
for Gormley. He’s the lone G1 winner in the field and may even have a slight
class edge. If he goes untested early, he could scamper home a winner.
The
rest of the field is basically made up of early/pressers and mid-pack stalkers
or closers. If one of the early/pressers decide to get bold and challenge
Gormley early, it may take the starch out of the Sheriffs runner, setting it up
for one of the others from off the pace. If that scenario unfolds, who can rate
in behind and finish strongest? My best guess, and it’s just a guess, would be,
Reach The World. The Tapit colt is
well-bred to handle the distance and possesses the strongest BRIS final
fraction with his finishing kick to the wire in his last race. His lightning
quick work should have him ready for a big race, and maybe even a winning race.
Play: If I can get
anywhere near the 9-2 morning line on Gormley
he’s my win bet. I’ll exacta box with Reach
The World. If odds dictate, a win saver on Reach The World. For tri’s and super’s, use any horse that you
fancy.
Good
luck, and as always, enjoy the race.
