Friday, November 18, 2016

Handicapper's Corner: Delta Downs Jackpot (G3)

Cool Million on the line in Delta Jackpot

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers Off


Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (GIII), two-year-olds, one and one sixteenth miles on the dirt, post time 4:45pm CST


The Delta Jackpot may only be a Grade III, but it is one of the richest races on the two-year-old calendar, with a purse of a cool million dollars.  In addition to their share of a $1,000,000 purse, the runners in the Delta Jackpot also have the chance to earn Road to the Kentucky Derby points: 10, 4, 2, and 1, respectively, to the top four finishers.  It has been run since 2002, except for 2005 when Hurricane Rita forced its cancellation. 

Just this spring, it produced its first Classic winner: last year's Jackpot winner, Exaggerator, splashed home a convincing winner of the 2016 Preakness Stakes (GI).  The race has also produced a two-time Breeders' Cup winner: though 2012 Jackpot winner Goldencents found the Classics too long, he proved to be an excellent miler, and won the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (GI) in both 2013 and 2014.  From a more local perspective, Birdbirdistheword won the Delta Jackpot in 2006.  Though he never raced in Illinois, he did stand stud in the state after retiring from racing.  His progeny included Timeaday, winner of the 2014 Showtime Deb Stakes at Hawthorne.

The race drew well for morning line favorite GUNNEVERA -- assuming he can take to the smaller track that is Delta Downs, he deserves serious respect.  Gunnevera comes in second off a freshening, and takes a class drop from a fifth-place effort behind Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Classic Empire last out in the Breeders' Futurity (GI).  A confirmed off-pace type, Gunnevera should be well suited by the setup here.  Line Judge and Hot Sean should be forward, DANGERFIELD should be pushing them along, and both of the Casse pair of THIRSTFORLIFE and OUR STORMIN NORMAN have shown some front-end gas as well.  Gunnevera should be sharper than he was last out, and well tuned to run down the speed.

Behind that, it's price horses who catch this space's eye.

It's always hard to count out GEE MONEY at Delta Downs, and Tip Tap Tapizar gets a long look, as well.  Gerard Melancon returns to the irons with Tip Tap Tapizar after a second-place finish in the local prep, and this start has him second off the lay.  He has tables to turn on Gunnevera, behind whom he was third two starts back in the Saratoga Special (GII).  He also has tables to turn on Line Judge, who beat him in the Jean Lafitte (the local prep) last out.  But, Line Judge will have far more to handle up front.  And, unlike Gunnevera, Tip Tap Tapizar has proven he can handle the Delta course.  On pace, though his maiden win came on the lead, Tip Tap Tapizar came form off the pace to win the Sapling two back, and replicated that style for his second in the local prep.  A reasonable step up in form coming second off the lay, and Tip Tap Tapizar figures at a price.  He is certainly the most attractive option coming from the local prep.

PAT ON THE BACK tries open stakes company for the first time here, as all five of his career starts thus far have come against New York-breds.  But, on speed, he fits with this set.  He has also shown pace versatility.  Last out, he fought early, kicked clear, and scored by daylight in his first time going a mile.  Even though that came on the front, his sprint outings at Saratoga, Finger Lakes, and even Belmont suggest that he has everything he needs to stay engaged and competitive from off the front end as well.  It also stands out who has the call on Pat On the Back: though Robby Albarado rode well-connected J BOYS ECHO in his first two starts, he instead turns up to ride Pat On the Back.

Selections:

#6 Gunnevera (5/2)

#10 Tip Tap Tapizar (10/1)

#1 Pat On the Back (15/1)

Longshot:  #7 Balandeen (10/1) has shown some speed, but has been able to both fight and rate, depending on the circumstances.  Pace is the biggest question, but there are other things to recommend him at a price.  Balandeen finished second last out in the Street Sense Stakes at a one-turn mile, and being by Bernardini out of Mamma Kimbo (a Grade II winner going a mile and a sixteenth), two turns ought to suit him.  A reasonable step forward in his first try going two turns makes Balandeen a contender.  The humans suit, too.  Trainer Chris Hartman has a solid 17% win rate with runners hitting the road.  And, his last two starts suggest a solid rapport with rider Channing Hill, who ships to Cajun country to ride.
 

Hadicapper's Corner: Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash (G1)

Jetin’ or Walkin’? – De Francis Memorial Dash

By: Dylan Jarmulowicz, Wire Players


The third busiest racing day of the year in Maryland, and by far the biggest day of the Laurel Park fall meet coincides with the 25th running of The Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash. While racing tends to take a little break after the Breeders’ Cup, this race always boasts a solid field of horses looking to end the year with a graded stake win. This year is no exception; this field of nine is diverse and features three top horses and others who will bring plenty of speed to the party.



Laurel Park Race 9 – Grade III 6 Furlongs - Post Time – 3:35pm (Eastern)
Advance Weather: Sunny, 60s

I mentioned above that there is plenty of speed in this race. #3 POMEROYS’S PACKAGE (20-1), #4 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY (6-1), #2 IVAN FALLUNOVALOT (5-1) and #8 XY JET (9-5) all are speed horses and have run their best races while on the lead. That should ensure a quick early pace for the race. 


 #8 XY JET is the one horse who looks like he needs the lead to win and has to use his high cruising speed to get into the winners circle. After running in Dubai last March, he was giving a lengthy vacation and came back to work last month at Belmont Park, running a disappointing fifth at short odds. He clearly needed a race after the almost seven month layoff. He is a good horse but with so much speed in this race, he may be up against it again in this spot and at a short price, he can beat me.


The other speed horse that should take some money is #2 IVAN FALLUNOVALOT. Rider Calvin Borel jumps back aboard after Lindy Wade rode him to consecutive victories at Remington Park. Borel has had a decent year since returning to the saddle after a brief retirement but he’s never been a favorite jockey of mine and combine that with being up against it tactically in this race, I do not like his chances to win.


My play will be #9 STALLWALKIN’ DUDE (5/2). This veteran horse should be in the perfect spot for trainer David Jacobsen. He likes to come from off the pace, has beaten rivals in the race previously and he has run some of his best races in his last four efforts including two stakes wins (one graded stake). He usually gets hug out wide and has overcome it before so the outside post isn’t much of a concern. I think he is the best bet of the day anywhere!   

My Plays:
Win: #9
Exacta: 9/4,5
Trifecta: 9/4,5,8/4,5,7,8

Good Luck!