Handicapper's Corner: Travers Stakes (G1)

ThoroFan Members vs. the 2016 Travers Stakes

The collective minds of the ThoroFan handicappers take a shot at pinpointing the winner of the 2016 Travers Stakes.

Below, the ThoroFan handicappers offer their selections for first through third place, plus their best longshot bomb. When it comes to which horse will wear the red and white Carnation floral blanket, the handicappers all have differing opinions. Handicapping a race is like viewing a painting. Everyone sees it differently. That’s part of the excitement and fun of our sport.  Some ThoroFan Handicappers added their individual thoughts about the Travers below the chart.  Good Luck to everyone and Happy Midsummer Derby Day!

HANDICAPPER	FIRST	SECOND	THIRD	LONGSHOT
Michael Amo	Creator	Destin	Majesto	American Freedom
Reinier Macatangay	American Freedom	Exaggerator	Destin	Governor Malibu
Nicolle Neulist	Governor Malibu	Gun Runner	Exaggerator	My Man Sam
John Caro	Destin	Exaggerator	American Freedom	Laoban
Laurie Ross	Exaggerator	Laoban	Gun Runner	Connect

ThoroFan Handicappers add their individual thoughts:

ThoroFan Chairman Michael Amo

This year’s Travers Stakes (GI) has the largest field since 1977. The field size mirrors the Kentucky Derby (GI). Experience in races with very large fields may be an advantage. All except four –Arrogate (1), Anaximandros (6), Gift Box (9) and Connect (10) – have had that experience in previous races.

The race will have serious early fractions with four liking to run out front ---Arrogate (1), American Freedom (2), Connect (10), Laoban (13) and Gun Runner (14). The convergence from inside and outside into the first turn may cause some difficulty for horses sandwiched in between.

The solid early pace should set the race up for horses charging down the lane to the finish line. The question is will it be a deep closer or a one with tactical speed that will take the Travers?  Creator seems like the likely deep closer with Destin the tactical speed horse.  Exaggerator, the favorite is an obvious concern. However, he may be forced too far back out of the gate to make an effective late run. Certainly, the weather won’t help him as it did in the Haskell. My prediction:

·         Creator (12)

·         Destin (8)

·         Majesto (11)

·         American Freedom (2)

Lady and the Track’s Reinier Macatangay:

The Travers might be more straightforward than people think. American Freedom will not wear blinkers, so Bob Baffert probably intends for a stalking trip this time, hopefully not too far from Arrogate and Laoban.

Exaggerator will come, but perhaps the fast track will slow him down a touch.

S. Florida ThoroFan Chapter Member John Caro:

Destin - tough guy

Exaggerator - a champion at the distance

American Freedom - might Win it here

Longshots:

Loban will set the pace and has a top jockey &

Creator and another top jockey on a stalwart fella

Bet - 2 w 7,8 w 7,8,12,13

 

Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds Laurie Ross:

Exaggerator’s confidence is at an all-time high. His comeback race in the Haskell shows that he’s back on top of his game. The son of Curlin is the most consistent three-year-old colt in training. He’s matured into a horse who can sit anywhere in a race, and with so many speedy pace setter/pressers, the Travers could set up for Exaggerator’s strong late kick.

Laoban should be nicknamed “Here comes trouble” he’s found all sort of it throughout his career. Was his maiden breaking Jim Dandy a fluke?  Were the other horses in the race just not fit enough?  Laoban just floated along on the lead doing his thing while the rest of the field were gasping and struggling to keep up. Granted, there is other speed in the race, but I have to think that this colt’s confidence is high and he’s starting to mature.

I liked Gun Runner to hit the board in the KY Derby and wasn’t disappointed. He completed a chalky trifecta.  Asmussen wisely skipped the rest of the Triple Crown and pointed towards the Travers, using the Haskell as a prep race. Unfortunately for Gun Runner, the Monmouth mud favored Exaggerator in the Haskell. Toss that race. Other than two out of the money finishes on muddy tracks, this constant colt always brings home a paycheck. On an unrelated pedigree geek side note, I’d love to see what he could do on the turf, since he has the breeding for it.

Connect hasn’t done anything wrong while beating lesser company. He’s a winner at Saratoga. He normally contests the pace, but doesn’t need the lead. Speed figures are very steady.

Bob Baffert is 1-6 in the Travers. He's only victory was with Point Given. Neither of his charges look up to the task this year. 

In his last two breezes, Destin was out-worked by Anchor Down, a G3 winner. According to Bruno de Julio, Destin struggled to get hold of the track.  

ThoFan Handicapper’s Corner News:

Until we meet again

Chicago Now’s Paul Mazur will be taking a hiatus from Handicapper’s Corner as he pursues his Master’s degree. All the best to Paul, who is one of the best handicappers in Chicago!   The classy and responsible Paul didn’t leave us high and dry, he suggested that Nicolle Neulist take over his position.   

Welcome Nicolle Neulist.Blinkers-off.com

Nicolle lives in Chicago, and spends just about every weekend at Hawthorne or Arlington.  A regular racetrack attendee since caching the racing bug at the 2013 Arlington Million, Nicolle has been writing about horse racing since the beginning of 2014.  Nicolle is always around on Twitter (@rogueclown) to chat racing, and writes about horse racing and Curlin's progeny in longer form at www.blinkers-off.com.

 

Handicapper's Corner: Pacific Classic Stakes (G1)

Surfing into the 2016 Pacific Classic Stakes (G1)

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan  Member

Del Mar - Pacific Classic Stakes Grade I – 1 & ¼ Miles $1M

Weather will be ideal for the 26^th running of the Pacific Classic at Del Mar with sunny skies, 78° and winds about 10mph down the stretch run. What a test of Champions is in store for the crowd at this prestigious event. With eight guys and a lady out for a frolicking date it should be exciting.

#1 - California Chrome – Who doesn’t like a great champion who has taken his talents around the globe? And what can I add to the past performances statements he’s made? Nothing. His four race win streak speaks volume about his ability. His come home race against Dortmund was visually impressive by every viewer’s standard. The battle down the stretch was incredible. His ability to generate middle and closing speed with his determination in the lane makes him the great champion he is. His works since his last and the bullet on the 14^th indicate he’s ready and Art Sherman’s numbers for graded stakes wins at 41% validates Chrome is ready. Enough said. He is the Champ and my top pick. Hopefully there will be value in his price with the other two champions finishing with him.

#7 - Beholder – Has there been a lady with this much winning talent since the Queen of Racing stepped down from her throne? No. Out of the money only twice in 23 races with 17 wins and 4 seconds. One came last out at a shorter distance breaking an 8 race win streak. I like everything I’ve seen. She was last year’s winner in this race with a 112 Bris speed, highest in the field, and she will likely wait in the first half mile as she did last year and rally to the lane with Chrome and her other date, Dortmund, trailing. She is my second pick and may be able to do it twice in a row. May be more value.

#8 - Dortmund – Stalwart winner with 8 victories in 11 races. Not afraid of a lane battle, keeps great company and enjoys his work. And had a great comeback race against Chrome last out after an 8 month break. Although I think he is a great winner I suspect this is not his ideal distance as he has only been in the money once in two tries at the distance according to Bris. He Herculean effort last out from a layoff concerns me as well. The jockey change is interesting and Buffett likes winning. Maybe a different tactic for this race???  Although he’s a great contender I will look at others for more value to add to the two above.

For me there are others for this event that provide betting value and have shown promise of being near the winners above. Based on their performances, connections, and rest cycle, I placed them in order of preference.  

#6 – Imperative well rested and works show he’s ready for a big one.  

#9 – Dalmore is rested and the connections are looking to make history. 

#2 – Hoppertunity is the closer with great connections and has faced the likes of the best here and overseas. 

And finally, #4 – Hard Aces showed his ability in the Cougar and can’t be overlooked. For me the others are a toss in the betting plan.

I don’t see a win bet worth playing for this race but if that is your frame of mind, or the only way you bet then a Dutch bet on three contenders may be the way to go. I will play a Trifecta and Superfecta as shown below. 

The betting money for today is $100.80.

$3 Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,6,7,9 with 1,2,4,6,7,9   Total:  $72

And good luck to the Lady…

$0.80 Superfecta: 7 w 1,6,7,9 w 1,2,4,6,7,9 w 1,2,4,6,7,9.  Total: $28.80

Handicapper"s Corner: Alabama Stakes (G1)

Songbird Ready to Fly In the2016 Alabama Stakes (G1)

by: The Turk

2009 Alabama Stakes Winner Careless Jewel; Photo Budmeister 26.2

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, a horse racing blog that focuses primarily on handicapping.  I'd like to start by thanking The Thorofan and their Handicapper's Corner for allowing me to share my thoughts with you.

The Alabama Stakes is typically a highlight race for me at Saratoga.  I've had conflicts with this weekend over the past few years and the last time I was able to be there for it, my son and his grandfather joined me in 2009 to see the absolutely gorgeous Careless Jewel win in a romp. It looked like the sort of performance that could catapult the filly to super stardom, but it just wasn't to be and the second best filly of 2009 behind Rachel Alexandra was retired soon after.  


Songbird, today's stupid-crazy heavy chalk favorite has skyrocketed to super heights already, winning nine straight and absolutely dominating all comers. Today's focus will be on figuring out if she can be beaten and by who, as well as just embracing the heavy chalk as a single and seeing who can bring value into the Place and Show spots on an exotic ticket.

Three Turk Generations at the Spa: Travers Stakes Day 2007

Today's race is not named after a person or a famous horse, but instead for the home state of William Cottrill, a former Confederate officer.   The race track was trying to remember the efforts of Mr. Cottrill who is credited with helping to revive horse racing in the North following the American Civil War.  Mr. Cottrill owned a farm near Lexington, Kentucky and bred a Kentucky Derby winner, 1884's Buchanan (Hale 2001). Horse racing remembers.

 A few years back I was deeply disturbed when many of the Oak Tree at Santa Anita Park meet's races were renamed by the Stronach Group.  I still don't like it and one of the most appealing things about horse racing to me besides the horses themselves is the tradition.  When I look at this picture of my father and son, together at the 2007 Travers Stakes, it means something to me, it's my roots, horse racing roots, the thing that ties one generation of fans to the next.  Imagine the hacks at the NYRA one day just deciding to rename The Alabama Stakes. I get heart palps just thinking about that.  I'm sorry, I digress, and I just want to end this thought with this: Horse Racing Remembers.

 I've been babbling a bit too much already, lets get after this race with a bit of video handicapping and then a peek at the fractions these horses are capable of. Let's get after it! 24 July2016 CCA Oaks G1 SAR  1 1/8 Miles; Fast Dirt


16 July 2016 Indiana Oaks G2 IND; 1 1/16 Miles; Fast Dirt


20 May 2016 Black Eyed Susan G2; PIM; 1 1/8 Miles; Fast Dirt


9 April 2016 Ashland G1; KEE; 1 1/8 Miles; Fast Dirt


Just some simply dazzling performances highlight in these few videos.  I could post all of Songbirds and what you see is complete consistency.  The Weep No More back to front finish at KEE in the Ashland was one of the memorable races of 2016 already, but nothing really from her since.

The chart below shows a small sample size of races at 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 of a mile.  Surprisingly Flora Dora ran a similar speed in an OC $62K at BEL in early Julyas compared to Songbird's Summer Oaks G2. At 1 1/8 miles there was a shocking disparity between Songbird, with the next closest horse Flora Dora finishing 8 lengths behind based on 1/5 of a second per length. Songbird is often slowed in the final 1/16 and that skews the data as this girl has tactical speed and Hall of Fame Jock Mike Smith knows how to use it.




  Songbird.  I'm not sure I need to say much else.  She won at SAR, she's 9-0 lifetime with $2.4 MM of earnings already, a 5 Time Grade 1 winner, a Breeders' Cup Champ, she's the complete package.  If it means anything, she has the lowest Tomlinson Number at the distance with a 269.  I expect her to soar.  

Family Tree, with hot jock F. Geroux up for trainer Wayne Catalano, comes in off two impressive outings in the mid west, in the Iowa Oaks in June and the Indiana Oaks 2 weeks later in July.   While the class in those races isn't terribly high, she was impressive.  

Going for Broke is making a big jump in class for trainer Chad Brown who places Ortiz up.  That combo has struck for 30% wins in 90 tries at SAR this meet.  

Go Maggie Go is on a layoff since June 11, something trainer Romans only wins 9% of the time.   A :58 4/5ths 5f bullet with 76 others in the workout tab on 12 August shows she's fit.  Black Eyed Susan winner wasn't visually impressive and ran a better, but out of the money, Kentucky Oaks a few weeks earlier.

 Flora Dora I think is too low in my base handicap.  Blinkers On, this First Dude daughter has two very fast bullets at SAR this month in morning work, I'm expected a focused and possibly career best effort to get in the money.  I'll be covering her from Place to 4th.  

Weep No More had alot of speed to run at in KEE.  She'll be running at alot of speed here too.  I'm not expecting a repeat performance.  No Place or Show finishes in her career yet.  Feast or famine and she's in the deep water today.

 I'm tossing Dark Nile at my own peril.


I'm leaning towards two very different bets:

Primary:
Songbird singled with 5-3-4-7-2 covered from Place to 4th in some combination I haven't fully thought through yet.  I don't think I'll cover that many horses in Place but a 6 OVER 5-3-4-7-2 OVER 5-3-4-7-2 $2 Trifecta will cost $40.

Secondary/Hedge Bet:
Exactas with Songbird in Place and the 5-3-4-7 in WIN spot.  $2 bet for $8.

 I'd like to end this post by again saying that I think Arlington Race Track is a wonderfully run, fan friendly place that I highly recommend to my horse racing friends.  They make it easy to buy tickets on their website and the track experience in the club seating is fantastic. I wish Illinois racing would get their act together and attract better talent with better purses, but you cannot beat Million Preview and Million Day at that track.  NYRA could learn a few things about race track experience from the team at Arlington.

2016 Arlington Millions

Have fun with it friends.  Turk Out! Works Cited Hale, Ron (2001). "William Cottrill Stakes?" About.com/Horse Racing. http://horseracing.about.com/library/blalabama.htm Retrieved 17 August 2016.