Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Arkansas Derby (G1)

 Value, Pace and a Live Longshot in the Arkansas Derby

By: RobertMarks, (@theyreinthegate)

 

We have a Grade 1 big Derby prep at Oaklawn Park this Saturday, the always fun Arkansas Derby, on the dirt at 1 & 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds with a $1,500,000 purse. There are plenty of Derby Qualifying Points to be won, with 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points for the 1-5 finishers on the road to the 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Featured as race 13, post time for the Arkansas Derby is 6"48 PM CT.  

Here is who we like:

 Renegade (3-2) Trained by Todd Pletcher with Irad Ortiz Jr., the Jockey, this colt comes off a win at Tampa Bay last month, dueling Wayne’s Law down the stretch. This colt has placed in all 4 starts, 2 as a 2-year-old and 2 this year. He fits the Arkansas Derby historical profile of short odds horses winning with top connections.  This horse has tactical speed and can sit or press the pace. Your most likely winner.

   Silent Tactic (5-2) trained by Mark Casse with Cristian Torres aboard comes off a 2^nd place finish at this track at the Rebel Stakes 3 weeks ago.  Knows the track well, having won in February in the Southwest Stakes and a 2^nd place finish in January in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Silent Tactic has methodically improved with every start. Supremely bred too, by Tapit out of Magical Sign (Gun Runner). The jockey knows the horse and knows the track well, and has been red hot the last week, winning at a 30% clip.  Silent Tactic is improving at the right time, and his strong closing style suits a contested pace. If he gets the pace to close into, this horse will be in the money.  

Taptastic (20-1). This Steve Asmussen-trained horse with Erik Asmussen on board has 1 start, finishing first in his first time out at 1 mile in a Maiden race at Oaklawn Park. This gray/road beauty has what looks like a nice late stalking style kick, winning that way up the rail in his Maiden win. Although he is by Tapit with Curlin as the damsire, it is asking a lot to win at 1 1/8-mile in his second start, but don’t ignore him at a big price.

This will be an interesting race pace-wise. We think front-runners Redland Rebels and Blackout Time lead the pace with early speed and a bunch of horses right behind, setting up the race for our 3 picks, all of whom have a stalking closing style.  

We will hope to hit a Trifecta, and then an Exacta, boxing our 3 highlighted horses with a value win bet on Taptaskic. As always, watch the horses in the paddock and the odds as post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$5 Trifecta Box: Taptastic, Silent Tactic, Renegade (total bet $30)

$10 Exacta Box: Taptastic, Silent Tactic, Renegade (total bet $60)

$10 Win Bet: Taptastic (Total bet: $10)

 

   

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Louisiana Derby (G2)

 

Louisiana Derby Value Plays

By:  MaryJo Moncheski, ThoroFan Handicapper

 

Saturday, the $1,000,000 Twinspires.com Grade 2 Louisiana Derby kicks off at 1 3/16th miles with a nine-horse field with a 5:42 PM CT post time.

There are many viable options to choose from, including Cherie DeVaux, Bob Baffert, Chad Brown, Brad Cox, and more. Let’s review the best bets and betting strategy. 

None of today’s entries have raced at this distance yet, so it really is anyone’s race. With two Cherie DeVaux options, I am going with #5 Golden Tempo (7-2) as my top pick.

Brad Cox has two horses coming off Maiden wins. I am going to take #8 Easterly (6-1) for my second choice. Most people will probably put Baffert’s Blacksmith or Brown’s Emerging Market on top, but they seem too obvious and won’t go off at a price. Therefore, #3 Chip Honcho (3-1) and #4 Universe (12-1). 

TOP PAIR:

#5 Golden Tempo & #8 Easterly

I love Golden Tempo for many reasons. There are several early pacesetters in this race with #7 Blacksmith (6-1) and #8 Easterly (6-1).

Other potential pace setters could be #9 Emerging Market (6-1) and #1 Pavlovian (6-1).

Golden Tempo struggled in the Risen Star to find a clear path, leading to him going four wide. He couldn’t get there on time. This horse can cover a lot of ground quickly. He also fits my rested criteria. Consistently increased Beyer speed, and he keeps DeVaux’s go-to jock, Jose Ortiz. Golden Tempo is sure to be the amazing closer we know.

#8 Easterly is my choice of the Brad Cox horses. He has speed, is rested, and has good distance. The only downside is he’s moving up significantly in class, which could hinder a win, but still keep him in the money. 

BOTTOM PAIR:

#3 Chip Honcho & #4 Universe 

#3 Chip Honcho could surprise and take the win with Jockey Luis Saez onboard for Trainer Steve Asmussen. He placed second in the Risen Star by a half-length, so he has the speed and distance. Can he get there in time? I think he will go to the front with either Blacksmith or Emerging Market. I just have a theory about Steve Asmussen: he's had more Allowance Claiming and Maiden winners than Stakes winners over the last year or so, which makes my trust in Chip Honcho falter. I am glad Saez remains on him, as I think he has the best chance for keeping Chip Honcho on the lead to finish in the money.

Lastly, my picks round out with #4 Universe. My whole objective is to find prices. Universe can add significant value to this superfecta. He finished 4th in the Risen Star; however, he kept gaining positions. His last two starts were from the inside rail, which alone could be a reason to toss them out.

Universe placed 3rd in the G1 Champaign against Napoleon Solo, jumping from a 68 Beyer in his Maiden to an 83. Wavering in the Smarty Jones, he came back to speed form in the Risen Star. McPeek putting Brian Hernandez, Jr. aboard is enough for me to include him in my Super. 

$10 Win: 5 Golden Tempo

$2 Exacta box: 5-8

.50 Trifecta box: 5-8-3

.10 Superfecta box: 5-8-3-4

Total Bet: $19.40

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Whitmore Stakes (G3)

  

Sprinters set for tactical showdown in Whitmore Stakes

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Hello racing fans! This Saturday, our travels take us to Hot Springs, Arkansas, for the ThoroFan race of the week: the Whitmore Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

The Grade 3 event at six furlongs brings together a compact but competitive seasoned group of sprinters aged four and up, looking to establish dominance in the division or reassert themselves after winter campaigns.

Here’s a look at the field: 

1. Wendelssohn
Draws the rail and owns the tactical speed profile that has been extremely effective in Oaklawn six-furlong races this meet. His strong local record and ability to sit just off the pace give him a major tactical advantage. Win Contender

2. Ryvit
A seasoned sprinter with tactical speed and a solid record at the distance, though his recent form suggests he may be a notch below the top contenders. Still capable of picking up a minor share with the right trip. Exotics

3. Tough Catch
An improving four-year-old who comes off a sharp Oaklawn win and has the early pace figures to stay involved from the start. If he handles the step up in class, he has the speed to be a serious threat. Win Contender

4. Tejano Twist
The class horse of the race with strong late pace figures and an excellent record at six furlongs. His closing style is the main concern on a track that has been favoring speed. Win Contender

5. Gold Sweep
Shows some early speed but appears slightly overmatched against this level of competition based on recent figures. Would need significant improvement to threaten the top runners. Pass

6. Bourbon Bash
A consistent sprinter who has run competitive figures in stakes company and possesses tactical speed. Could stay close early and hang around for a piece of the trifecta. Exotics

7. Spankster
Typically settles mid-pack and finishes late, a running style that has struggled over Oaklawn’s speed-favoring six-furlong surface this meet. The projected pace scenario makes him difficult to support. Pass

Race Analysis:

Oaklawn’s six-furlong profile has strongly favored early speed, with E and E/P runners winning a large share of races and inside posts performing especially well. That trend could play a major role here, as several contenders possess tactical speed, and the rail draw gives Wendelssohn an ideal setup to secure a forward position early.

Expect Wendelssohn, Tough Catch, and Bourbon Bash to be prominent in the early stages, while the accomplished closer Tejano Twist will likely settle toward the back and attempt to make one late run. If the track continues to favor speed, the advantage could belong to the horses closest to the pace.

 

Wagering

$30 Win - 1                                                                         

$20 Exactas - 1 over 3,4 ($40 Total)                                              

$10 Exacta saver – 4 over 1                                                                     

$1 Trifecta Wheel - 1 over 3,4 over 2,3,4,6  ($12 Total)                            

.50 cent Superfecta Wheel - 1 over 3,4 over 2,3,4,6 over 2,3,4,6 ($6 Total)

 

Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!