Harlan’s Holiday Stakes: Key Contenders, Live Longshots, & Wagering Angles
By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper
Saturday brings us to Gulfstream Park with an 11 race card and five stakes races, including Race 10, the Harlan’s Holiday (G3). The weather should be ideal and should not influence the race. The 1 1/6 mile contest features three 3-year-olds taking on four older horses, including Skippylongstocking.
Let’s review the field:
1. Hold My Bourbon - Joseph/Ortiz, I – Has no races at Gulfstream but shows good early speed. Irad Ortiz was up when winning wire to wire at Saratoga, going 7 furlongs. With Gulfstream’s fast track, I expect he will be on the lead or immediately behind if challenged.
2. Skippylongstocking - Joseph/Gaffalione - Multi graded stakes runner and reaching year 7 soon. His last two races did not show him in his previous form, although he did show some middle speed in the Whitney, then regressed. Not sure what to think about him, but his works look good, and he shot a bullet a week ago. I expect he is an ITM contender.
3. Catalytic – Sano/Castellano - Although his last two races when he raced out of town were not up to par for him, this horse has 9 races at Gulfstream and 100% over the track with 3 wins and 6 seconds, two seconds at the distance. He’s had six works at 5 furlongs and very good times. His best speeds are over this track. At 20-1 ML and Castellano up for the ride, I like him ITM and might surprise.
4. Classic of Course - Biancone/Alvarado - This homebred is 3 and has had 16 races. 11 of those were at Gulfstream with 3 wins, 3 seconds and 3 thirds, with one win and two seconds at the distance and 102 Bris speed going one and a sixteenth. Alvarado won the Tropical Park Derby last week. I think he’ll take his charge into the money here as well at 10-1 ML.
5. Poster – Hartly/Prat – Top graded stakes jockey gets the mount on a lightly raced 3-year-old. ‘Lightly Raced’ but in some challenging races. Won the Remsen and was tracking the Derby trail through the Sam F. Davis and the Jack Ruby Steaks, then rested from March till his return, winning a 100k OC at Churchill on the lawn. He goes well on all surfaces, and distance is not an issue. I think he is a win contender.
6. Racing Driver – Delgado/Zayas – He is 66% at Gulfstream against lesser company, has one race at the distance for third place, and he won last out here going a mile. Zayas knows his craft, but my concern is that the horse has not seen the likes of the others and lacks the speed that might show up in the early stages. I’ll put him in the bottom of my tickets.
7. Con Compania – Dibona/Vasquez - This 5-year-old Chilean runner has the most races of any of the others except Skippylongstocking. He is a speedball going shorter. His odds are 5/2, so the handicapper sees something. He’s had 6 races at Gulfstream, won 3, a second and a third with an on the pace running style, winning last out here at one mile. I expect he will challenge Hold My Bourbon for the lead. If he goes the distance, he’ll be ITM again. Dangerous.
Analysis
The class of the race is Skippylongstocking and Poster. The rest have all done well in their races, but in a short field with fast speed up front, I think the class will show through.
Poster is my top pick because he is second off a layoff, winning his last race, and he gets the top stakes jockey in the country.
The top longshots are Catalytic and Classic of Course. I like the connections for both, and they have the best closing pace of the runners today. Let’s get to it.
Handigambling…. Menu
$3 EXACTA - ALL with 3 & 4
$8 win 3, $14 win 4
$2 Trifecta - 5 with 2, 3, 4 with AL
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