Malibu Stakes Chaos: Favorite Under Fire
By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
Sunday’s Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita attracted ten 3-year-old colts seeking their first Grade 1 victory, including five from the Bob Baffert barn.
How soft is the field? Only one graded stakes winner, Barns, entered. In the previous 11 years, nine Malibu heroes exited a Breeders’ Cup race, and three earned championship honors during their careers.
The 7-furlong event is featured as race 10 on a stakes-filled 11-race card. Post time is 3:49 PM PT.
Let’s review the field.
The morning line favorite, Barnes (3-1), had a bumpy Spring and Summer, not living up to the hefty $3.2 million price tag. He finished behind Journalism in the San Felipe (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1), dashing his Derby dreams and placed third and fourth in graded stakes at Saratoga and PARX. The Bob Baffert trainee finally found the winners’ circle again with a dominant eight-length score in the Perryville (G3) when switched back to his preferred pacesetting style. Barnes is the only graded winner in this exceptionally soft Grade 1 event. Contender.
Goal Oriented (5-1) has spent the year playing in Grade 1 events. He finished behind Journalism twice, Baeza once and faded to sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile after a wide trip. Now he shortens up and takes on a softer crowd. The Baffert trainee has tactical speed and could pull off the upset. Contender.
Cornucopian (7-2) won his six-furlong debut in a dazzling 1:09, with a sharp 11.61 final furlong. Next, he faded to fourth in the Arkansas Derby and surfaced a month later at Aqueduct, when he placed second in an Allowance Optional Claiming event against two rivals. He had a six-month break before returning to training in October.
Baffert’s charge has a series of five-furlong breezes, where he has successfully rated a few lengths behind mates. He teamed with Barnes in their last work, a bullet 6 furlongs in 1:12.80. Cornucopian was moving better, while Barnes was pushed.
Cornucopian has excellent leg extension, targets and passes others without being pushed, but doesn’t like being near other horses; he turns his head away, and his body drifts outward. The knock against Cornucopian is that he may tangle with Modus Bestia and get cooked. Exotics.
Madaket Road (5-1) After a hit and mostly miss experience on the Derby trail, Madaket Road shortened up for the Pat Day Mile and finished second. He shortened up yet another furlong for the Woody Stephens. Despite stumbling at the break, Madaket Road rushed into second place and stayed there. He didn’t run his usual race in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial, formerly known as the King’s Bishop, never getting into gear and checking in fifth, while stablemate Barnes was third and Midland Money seventh.
The Bob Baffert trainee has delivered the same good, but not good enough, performance throughout his career and is clearly a polite horse, deferring to others. If Madaket Road runs his typical race, expect him to finish in the superfecta. Exotics.
Midland Money (7-2) looked like a good thing in his initial two starts, winning by a combined 9 3/4 lengths. Then he took on a salty bunch, including stablemates Barnes and MM, in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1), his first attempt beyond six furlongs. Midland Money set a quick tempo, but was through by the time the real running began and quickly faded to sixth. He faced Allowance Optional Claiming class runners in his last two starts at Del Mar and Santa Anita, losing both times.
On a positive note, in his last race at 6 1/2 furlongs, Midland Money switched from a pacesetter/presser to a closing running style, and it almost paid off. He made a last-to-second move, circled the field and closed with each stride, missing by 1 1/4 lengths. The feat earned him a 106 Brisnet late pace figure, the Malibu field’s highest. Exotics.
Live Longshots
Speedy Wilson (15-1) has been in the money in six of eight career starts in restricted stakes and open optional claiming company. 7 furlongs is his sweet spot; he’s 3 for 3 at the distance and recently bested 8 rivals in an Allowance Optional Claiming contest at Del Mar, which included Comedy Town, a two-time stakes winner at Gulfstream. The Phil D’Amato trainee has tactical speed; he can press or close as the situation warrants. Exotics.
Why is Grade 3-placed Smooth Cruisein (30-1) dismissed at such long odds? He’s been out of the superfecta just twice in 8 career starts. In the shared Belief, he faced only Citizen Bull, who would just miss in the BC Sprint, and the always competitive Gaming, who Smooth Cruisein beat by 9 lengths. While the Karen Headley trainee isn’t in the same class as Citizen Bull, he generally runs his race and could hit the exotics, especially if there’s a fast pace.
Not Today
Modus Bestia (15-1) is a speedball on the rail. We’re talking 21 first and 44 second quarter speed. However, he hasn’t been capable of sustaining it until recently, when he beat maidens by three lengths, getting 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:14.98, and again against Allowance Optional Claiming class by 1 1/2 lengths, timed in 1:09.51 for 6 panels. Will he win? Probably not, but he could make things interesting on the front end. I predict speed/fade. Pass.
Technically, Berlin Wall (20-1) has two victories, but has crossed the finish line in front only once, in his last start, where he powered away from state-bred $20,000 Allowance Optional Claimers by 7 3/4 lengths, completing 6 1/2 furlongs in a modest 1:16.78. He’ll need to improve to be a threat. Pass.
Spenard (30-1) is the field’s “why?” horse. He was beaten like a dusty rug at Zia Park by a combined 9 1/4 lengths in his last two starts without apparent excuse. Pass.
Analysis
Previous Starts: 7 of the previous 10 Malibu victors exited a Breeders’ Cup race, including the last two. Five placed first through fourth. Six winners gained ground in their last start, although the previous two Malibu winners didn’t.
Run Style: Pacesetters and pressers rule. Only one closer, farther back than two lengths, won.
Favorites: Only 3 of the last 10 favorites didn’t win. None placed worse than fourth.
Post Position: The Malibu seldom attracts more than nine runners. No particular post is favored.
Barnes is the early favorite, yet Goal Oriented fits the historical profile as well.
Barnes has a 3:2-0-1 record at 7 furlongs, while Goal Oriented is cutting back to a sprint.
Modus Bestia will play catch-me-if-you-can. He may set a lively tempo with Midland Money, Cornucopian, Barnes and possibly Goal Oriented in hot pursuit. Cornucopian and Barnes have the early speed to challenge, but I expect Flavien Prat on the former and Jose Ortiz on the latter are wise enough not to get into a speed duel with a 15-1 shot.
I wasn’t thrilled with Barnes’s last breeze when he was pushed to stay with Cornucopian. Maybe he needed the work, although he has a solid string of 5 and 6-furlong breezes under his girth.
I’m going with Goal Oriented for the upset. He has won from on and off the pace and just missed the Haskell victory in an exciting blanket finish with Journalism and Gosger.
Madaket Road always runs his race, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish second or third. The talent is there, but the competitive nature isn’t.
10. Goal Oriented (5-1)
9. Barnes (3-1)
3. Madaket Road (5-1)
4. Speedy Wilson (15-1
