12 clash in Kentucky Turf Cup
By: Mary Jo Moncheski ThoroFan Handicapper
With a hefty purse of $2.5 million, and a ticket to the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Turf on the line for the winner, Saturday’s Grade 2 Kentucky Turf Cup Invitational attracted a dozen older horses who will travel 1 1/2 miles.
Kentucky Downs is a fun and equally frustrating track. It is not a typical U.S. track in the standard oval format. It looks more like an odd-shaped carabiner or one of those safety pins that hold a price tag on a piece of clothing.
That being said, it’s often a handicapper’s worst nightmare! However, if you do take a poke at handicapping this track, you will find the reward to be fruitful with long shots.
The Turf Cup is carded as race 11 of 12 on a stakes-filled card, with a 5:21 PM CT post time.
While this 1 ½ mile race isn’t in a typical shape, 2. El Rezeen (8-1) has the English Channel genes to go the distance, especially with a Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. and Trainer Todd Pletcher pairing. El Rezeen has won 1 of 2 starts at this distance. Despite not having won since August 23, 2024, this horse hasn’t lost his form with increased Beyer speed every race. Additionally, El Rezeen moves up at every quarter, making him a definite closer. Combine all of this with blinkers off and a slight jockey switch (he last won at this distance with Dylan Davis), El Rezeen beats out 5. Mercante (5-1) for my top pick.
Jockey JD Ramos is only at Kentucky Downs for two mounts. As an underrated Horseshoe Indianapolis-based jockey, Ramos flies under the radar with a price. Mercante is more consistent in speed and winnings than 6. Grand Sonata. This horse is moving up in class but has done well against others in higher classes. I couldn’t put Mercante on top since he hasn’t run this distance. I will be curious to see how he takes to the uphill slopes.
Bottom Pair: 10. Corruption – 6. Grand Sonata
10. Corruption (6-1) gets in my trifecta due to his consistent Beyer speed figures, preference to this distance and fitting my “rested” criteria (see previous writings). It also helps to have Jockey Jose Ortiz on board for Trainer Mark Casse. This duo has been on fire at Saratoga this summer. My concern is Corruption will get lost in the shuffle, as he likes to be out front. As with a lot of these horses that haven’t run at KD, the hills are unpredictable. Some horses love them; some just plain despise them.
The wildcard remains #6 Grand Sonata (4-1), ridden by Jockey Tyler Gaffalione for Trainer Todd Pletcher. Grand Sonata hasn’t won a race since winning this exact race in 2024. Maybe Kentucky Downs is the only track Grand Sonata loves, or maybe, as a 6-year-old, he hit his peak last year. He seems to hang in his last several races, which is why I can’t count on him to win this year. He hasn’t shown enough effort to prove he still has it in him.
I am going with 2-5-10-6 as my picks for today’s feature race.
Longshot: #5 Mercante (5-1)
$2 Exacta box: 2-5 ($4 total)
.50 trifecta box: 2-5-10 ($3 total)
.10 superfecta box: 2-5-10-6 ($2.40 total)
$10 Win: 2
Total bet: $19.40
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