Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Goodwood Stakes (G1)

  

Full Speed Ahead in the Goodwood Stakes

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Handicapper 

The Goodwood Stakes (GI) has had a rocky time with its identity and home. It was birthed in the United States at Santa Anita in 1985 because of a partnership between the Oak Tree Racing Association and the Goodwood Racecourse in Chichester, England.

Since then, it has undergone numerous name changes and distances.

In 2012, it received a new name, the Awesome Again Stakes. Then, in 2024, the name changed to the California Crown Stakes.

This year, it reverted to the Goodwood Stakes (GI). Nonetheless, the race still means a lot in the Black Type, grade one category.

This year, the race doesn’t disappoint. Seven horses, 3 years old and up run the 9 furlongs for a share of the $300,000 purse. The weather will be beautiful with temperatures in the high seventies, with a possible chance of rain.

 

Here is the field.

1.  Gaming (Game Winner) is one of three entries for trainer Bob Baffert. Looks like the rabbit for one of his other two. Should be out front as far as he can go. Distance may be too far for the 3-year-old. Will need to regain his form of last year to compete.

 

2.  Ultimate Gamble (Medaglia d’Oro) Keeps jockey Kimura, who rode him to a third place finish in the Pacific Classic, a neck behind Fierceness at 10 furlongs. Working OK. Likes Santa Anita. Will need a fast pace to close to win.

 

3.   Privman (Justify) Another Baffert entry. Will be moving in the stretch if the pace is fast. Distance will challenge, since the farthest he has run in his career is one mile. May drop anchor at the quarter pole.

 

4.  First Mission (Street Sense) running at the right level. Ran in four grade one races, but with only one finish in the money. Experience is his main weapon. New at Santa Anita with a new jockey. Too many “news” to like him to win at such a short price. Should be in the mix for piece in the exotics.

5.   Nevada Beach (Omaha Beach) Takes a big step up to grade one company, although secures a new jockey, (Money) Mike Smith, for the assignment. Seems to be Baffert’s best change to get a piece of this race. Does well at Santa Anita. His old jockey, Hernandez, gets off to ride Full Serrano (#7). Not a good sign.

 

6.   Express Train (Union Rags) He is the senior citizen in the race, at 8 years-old. Is in the money frequently, yet with only 7 wins in 27 starts. He seems to be improving with the hope he can regain some of his Beyers figures where he ran 103 on a wet track and 106 on a fast track. Could surprise as a real long shot.

 

7.   Full Serrano (Full Mast) He is an Argentina bred, kept by his breeder, Hronis Racing, LLC.. Ran at Del Mar in 2024 in two grade one races with a first and second, respectively. Off 10 months before his last race at a mile that he won, winning by seven lengths. Retains jockey Hernandez off last win. Should be ready for this one.

 

Analysis

The pace should be reasonable with Gaming and Full Serrano leading the pack. Beyers suggest a paired race sprint to the turn, however Timeform numbers and distance suggest that competition will end at quarter pole with Gaming dropping out of it.

Ultimate Gamble, First Mission and Express Train should be closing with the first two having the best chances to get there. Full Serrano should have the best stamina to continue on to the wire.

 Here is how I think they will finish:

7. Full Serrano (2-1)

2. Ultimate Gamble (8-1)

4. First Mission (8-5)

6. Express Train (20-1)

Handigamble

$25 to win on Full Serrano (#7) = $25

$50 to place on Full Serrano (#7) =$50

$1.00 Trifecta Box:  Full Serrano (#7), Ultimate Gamble  (#2), First Mission (#4) and Express Train (#6) = $24

 

Good luck but keep the day job.

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Pennsylvania Derby (G1)

Penn Derby Drama: Can Baeza Shed the Bridesmaid Tag?

By Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate) 

We have the Grade 1 Penn Derby for 3-year-olds with a $1,000,000 purse this Saturday at Parx Racing.

As pointed out by Ed Derosa on X (@EJXD2), this year’s race attracted a grand total of 0 Grade 1 winners, only 1 Grade 2 winner (Magnitude) and 2 Grade 3 Winners (Gosger & Mo Plex).

The good news is that we have a competitive field that should make for good betting opportunities.

 Here is who we like:

Baeza (2-1) Trained by John Shirrifes with Hector Berrios the Jockey, Baeza ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes behind Sovereignty and Journalism and 2nd in the Jim Dandy Stakes. Those races featured the 3-year-old superstar Sovereignty or Journalism; this race does not. Will the Bridesmaid finally step up and win. Pace-wise, it looks like the race sets up nicely for Baeza, with enough speed up front for him to close in. After a busy Spring campaign, he comes into this race off a 56-day layoff and a sharp workout last week at 6 furlongs. The Distance will be no problem, as Baeza has gone 1 1/8 miles or longer in his last four races. If you think he steps up, this is the race.

Gosger (4-1), trained by Brendon Walsh with Luis Saez, is lightly raced but has been in the money all five times, with two wins and three place showings. Like Baeza, he likes to close into a fast pace. Not sure he is as fast as Baeza, but he’s well rested and comes off a bullet workout last week. If he stays anywhere near his 4-1 morning line, there is plenty of value here, and I would jump on him in your exotics. Speed figures show he is just as fast as Baeza so why not take him at double the morning line value over Baeza.

Goal Oriented (5-2). This Baffert-trained horse, with Irad Ortiz Jr. on board, is lightly raced, having started only 4 times, but 2 of those starts have been Grade 1 races: the Preakness (4th place) and the Haskell (3rd place, behind Journalism and Gosger). He’s plenty rested (2 months) and would appear to be ready to take a step up. Gets a Jockey switch from Flavien Prat to the always dangerous Irad Ortiz Jr.

Magnitude (6-1) This Steve Asmussen trainee has plenty of experience, having run 9 times with 4 wins, with last race a well back 2nd to Sovereignty in the Travers. He will be part of the early speed and will appreciate the cut back from the 1 1/4 mile Travers to this race at 1 1/8 miles. He has had injuries and been inconsistent, but speed is always dangerous and figures to be part of the exotics if her runs to his best prior speed figure.

 

Analysis

This will be an interesting race pace-wise. Looks to be pretty fast with good early pace.

We think front-runners Big Truzz (10-1) and So Sandy (15-1) lead the pace with Magnitude right behind them early.

From there, it’s a stretch duel between the closers Goal Oriented, Gosger and Baeza.

We hope to hit a Trifecta Boxing our 4 highlighted horses. We also think a win bet on Gosger at 3-1 or higher odds is good value.

As always, watch the Horses in the Paddock and the odds as Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.

Bets: $100 Budget

$50-win Gosger

$2Trifecta Box: Gosger, Baeza, Goal Oriented, Magnitude (total bet $48)

$2 Longshot pick: Big Truzz (10-1)

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Woodbine Mile (G1)

  

Notable Contenders vie in Grade 1 Woodbine Mile

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Hello racing fans! As summer gives way to autumn, all eyes turn north to Woodbine Racetrack for one of Canada’s signature events: the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile.

Traditionally contested on the expansive E.P. Taylor turf course, this year’s edition will instead be run on the inner turf due to ongoing renovations. The race showcases top-class milers and serves as a steppingstone to even bigger stages later in the year.

Since its inauguration in 1997, the Woodbine Mile has attracted elite turf horses from around the world, with champions such as Wise Dan, Tepin, and Modern Games etching their names into history.

With a purse of one million dollars (CAD), the Mile consistently draws a world-class field and stands as one of North America’s premier one-mile turf events.

This year’s edition will feature Notable Speech, trained by Charlie Appleby for Godolphin, as the powerhouse team looks to add another Woodbine Mile trophy to their collection following wins in 2022 and 2023.

Adding international intrigue is One Stripe, trained by respected conditioner Graham Motion, who already secured a Breeders’ Cup Mile berth by capturing the prestigious Group 1 L’Ormarins King’s Plate in South Africa.

Local hopes will be well represented too, with multiple Canadian conditioners taking their shot, including Mark Casse, Mike DiPaolo, Martin Hinkson, Kevin Attard and Catherine Day Phillips, all of whom bring home-court experience to this year’s Mile.

Adding to the excitement, the Woodbine Mile shares the spotlight with two key Grade 1 races for 2-year-olds: the Summer Stakes and the Natalma Stakes. Together, these three races make up Turf Champions Day and are all “Win and You’re In” qualifiers for the 2025 Breeders’ Cup, giving horses of all ages the chance to earn a berth on racing’s biggest stage. This trio ensures that Woodbine remains at the center of the racing world on an action-packed day.

This year’s edition promises another compelling chapter, with a field blending proven class and emerging talent. Fans and connections alike will be watching closely to see who can rise to the occasion and claim their place in Woodbine Mile history.

Post time for the Mile is scheduled for 5.39 p.m. 

Let’s look at the field from the rail out.

1. Stanley House (De Paulo / Salles)   10-1
Hard-trying local who’s danced a lot of dances but usually finds himself a cut below Grade 1 company. The inside draw could help him save ground, but he’ll need everything to fall his way just to get a minor piece.
Category: Underneath

2. Notable Speech (Appleby / Buick)   8-5
The class of the field on paper. Lightly raced but brilliant Euro miler with a serious turn of foot. Appleby/Godolphin have made this race their Canadian calling card in recent years, and with Buick aboard, he’s the one they all have to beat.
Category: Win Contender

3. One Stripe (Motion / Velazquez)   5-2
Already a Group 1 winner overseas and carries a “Win and You’re In” ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Motion is excellent with imports, and Velazquez should have him well-placed to launch his late kick. Major threat if he adapts quickly.
Category: Win Contender

4. Hunt Master (Hinckson / Flores)   20-1
Ambitious placement from a small barn. Admirable consistency, but against this kind of company, he’s in deep water. Likely to be outrun when the real running begins.
Category: Toss

5. Wyoming Bill (Day Phillips / Dettori)   15-1
Interesting mid-priced player. Versatile running style and gets the services of Frankie Dettori, who can work magic on turf. Still has something to prove against Grade 1 company, but not without a puncher’s chance if the pace suits.
Category: Exotics Use

6. My Boy Prince (Casse / Rosario)   10-1
Canada’s hope. Last year’s King’s Plate winner and runner-up in the 2023 Summer Stakes. Genuine and consistent, with tactical speed and Rosario’s patience a plus. Might lack the raw turn of foot of the top internationals but cannot be dismissed.
Category: Exotics Use

7. Naptown (Magana / Carrasco)   20-1
Lightly regarded outsider. Hasn’t shown the class or figs needed to match up with this field.
Category: Toss

8. Win for the Money (Casse / Husbands)   8-1
Casse’s “other” runner, and a solid Woodbine-based turf horse. A notch below his stablemate but could stick around for a minor slice if the trip works out.
Category: Underneath

9. Gas Me Up (Attard / Prat)   5-1
Wild card. Brings tactical speed and gets one of North America’s best turf riders in Flavien Prat. Attard is a shrewd local trainer who can have one ready for a big run. Could be the value play to spice up the exotics.
Category: Exotics Use

Race Analysis

The 2025 Woodbine Mile sets up as a showdown between international class and local pride. Notable Speech arrives for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin with the kind of credentials that have made this race their playground in recent years. His devastating turn of foot should be well-suited to the inner turf, and William Buick knows exactly how to time his run.

South African star One Stripe, now in Graham Motion’s care, adds intrigue as a proven Group 1 miler. He’ll get a pace to run at and looms the most dangerous late threat if he adapts quickly to North American racing.

Among the locals, My Boy Prince carries Canada’s hopes. A King’s Plate winner and Summer Stakes runner-up, his tactical speed ensures Rosario can keep him in the fight. He may lack the killer turn of foot of the internationals, but his grit makes him a strong exotics player.

The wild card is Gas Me Up, who could be the pace player with Prat aboard. If left alone, he’s talented enough to stick around and blow up the trifecta or super. Wyoming Bill, under Frankie Dettori, also deserves a look as an exotics candidate with a versatile style.

Top 3 Selections

Notable Speech (#2) – The class and trip horse, looks poised to follow Appleby’s winning script.

One Stripe (#3) – Strong international closer, Motion/Velazquez a deadly combo.

My Boy Prince (#6) – Best of the locals, tactical and tough enough to secure a board spot.

Note to Readers:
The wagering strategies below are simply suggestions based on how the race projects. Everyone has their own comfort level, so the key is to play within your means. Whether it’s a win bet, an exacta, or a small trifecta, adjust the amounts to what feels right for you — nothing here is rigid or set in stone.

Win Bet: Notable Speech (#2), if 2/1 or higher If lower, shift focus to exotics

Exacta: Exacta Savers: 2,3 over 6,9 (My Boy Prince / Gas Me Up)

Trifecta: 2,3 over 2,3,6,9 over 2,3,5,6,8,9 2 over 3,6,9 over 3,5,6,8,9

Superfecta: 2,3 over 2,3,6,9 over 2,3,5,6,8,9 over 1,5,6,8,9

Closing Thought: However you decide to play it, the Woodbine Mile always delivers high drama and a glimpse of future Breeders’ Cup stars — making it one of the most compelling days on the turf calendar.

Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Kentucky Turf Cup Invitational (G2)

12 clash in Kentucky Turf Cup

By: Mary Jo Moncheski ThoroFan Handicapper

With a hefty purse of $2.5 million, and a ticket to the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Turf on the line for the winner, Saturday’s Grade 2 Kentucky Turf Cup Invitational attracted a dozen older horses who will travel 1 1/2 miles.

Kentucky Downs is a fun and equally frustrating track. It is not a typical U.S. track in the standard oval format. It looks more like an odd-shaped carabiner or one of those safety pins that hold a price tag on a piece of clothing.

That being said, it’s often a handicapper’s worst nightmare! However, if you do take a poke at handicapping this track, you will find the reward to be fruitful with long shots.

The Turf Cup is carded as race 11 of 12 on a stakes-filled card, with a 5:21 PM CT post time. 

Top Pair: #2 El Rezeen - #5 Mercante

While this 1 ½ mile race isn’t in a typical shape, 2. El Rezeen (8-1) has the English Channel genes to go the distance, especially with a Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. and Trainer Todd Pletcher pairing. El Rezeen has won 1 of 2 starts at this distance. Despite not having won since August 23, 2024, this horse hasn’t lost his form with increased Beyer speed every race. Additionally, El Rezeen moves up at every quarter, making him a definite closer. Combine all of this with blinkers off and a slight jockey switch (he last won at this distance with Dylan Davis), El Rezeen beats out 5. Mercante (5-1) for my top pick.

Jockey JD Ramos is only at Kentucky Downs for two mounts. As an underrated Horseshoe Indianapolis-based jockey, Ramos flies under the radar with a price. Mercante is more consistent in speed and winnings than 6. Grand Sonata. This horse is moving up in class but has done well against others in higher classes. I couldn’t put Mercante on top since he hasn’t run this distance. I will be curious to see how he takes to the uphill slopes.

Bottom Pair: 10. Corruption – 6. Grand Sonata

10. Corruption (6-1) gets in my trifecta due to his consistent Beyer speed figures, preference to this distance and fitting my “rested” criteria (see previous writings). It also helps to have Jockey Jose Ortiz on board for Trainer Mark Casse. This duo has been on fire at Saratoga this summer. My concern is Corruption will get lost in the shuffle, as he likes to be out front. As with a lot of these horses that haven’t run at KD, the hills are unpredictable. Some horses love them; some just plain despise them.

The wildcard remains #6 Grand Sonata (4-1), ridden by Jockey Tyler Gaffalione for Trainer Todd Pletcher. Grand Sonata hasn’t won a race since winning this exact race in 2024. Maybe Kentucky Downs is the only track Grand Sonata loves, or maybe, as a 6-year-old, he hit his peak last year. He seems to hang in his last several races, which is why I can’t count on him to win this year. He hasn’t shown enough effort to prove he still has it in him.

I am going with 2-5-10-6 as my picks for today’s feature race.

Longshot: #5 Mercante (5-1)

$2 Exacta box: 2-5 ($4 total)

.50 trifecta box: 2-5-10 ($3 total)

.10 superfecta box: 2-5-10-6 ($2.40 total)

$10 Win: 2

Total bet: $19.40