Smart Value Plays for the Belmont Derby
By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper
Back to Saratoga, isn’t that refreshing? What a great track, but my fear is that it has rained so many weekends around Albany and the vicinity, yet the forecast is for fair weather.
There’s a great field in Friday’s Belmont Derby, with many who can contend. One Rabbit and a bunch of closers who like various positions to strike.
The odds in this field are very tight for the listed top contenders, and it’s hard to imagine a good longshot to come in the money with them, but if you’re going to wager, you must find value where you can as a handicapper or bow out. As a ThoroFan, pick your favorite and enjoy the race with a small wager on your pick. It should be a well-run race at a shorter than usual distance.
The 1 1/8 mile, Grade 1 event is featured as the ninth on an 11 race card with a 5:45 PM ET post time.
Here are my top picks based on Brisnet Prime Power
#6 Final Gambit – Cox/Prat – Gotta love the connections here. No question the form from the Derby says he can close like a freighter and had trouble getting there with many horses in front of him. He has great form on synthetic and a nice run first time out on the lawn….will that turf form shine through? Can’t leave him off the ticket.
#5 Test Score – Motion/Franco – Never gone the distance but has all the breeding to go long. Kitten Joy mare, the colt is well suited for any turf, anywhere. Is ITM 6 of 7 races against some good company. Missed last out by 1.25 in the Grade I American Turf at Churchill…have to consider a top play and at 4-1 will be worth a single wager.
#4 New Century - Walsh/Murphy - Murphy has been up on all but one race, has the speed and pace to close on others. Has the most Grade I experience in the field. Last out, he didn’t gain anything in the last turn. If he runs his race like the Summer or the BC Juvenile Turf, he may well win. The one that looks like he should win based on form and prior races. Top pick for me
The Field
#1 Tank – David/Saez – Here is the Rabbit of the field. Has been tearing it up at Gulfstream in some listed stakes. This is a big step forward. I think he will start and set the pace, which will definitely make the race. All horses behind him are closers, midpack or longer. Don’t see him winning, but might use in the bottom of exotics. Luis can set and reset the pace in his favor as we’ve seen before, leaving deep closers out in the cold.
#2 Early Adopter – Brown/Ortiz J. – No doubt this guy should be on the turf and run forever in a longer race. Don’t think his speed will match others in the race. Great trainer, but his stats entering this level under these conditions have not proven successful for him. Not one I would wager on in the top two.
#3 Luther – Fellowes/Shoemark – This little devil (no pun, well maybe a bit) is quite stout given his company. He raced against my top pick, losing by a small margin as a 2-year-old. You have to consider that Euro horses run on rather uneven, undulating turf, not flat, and often quite gnarly, soft, and heavy. Not flat tracks like we have here. Give this guy some respect. He might surprise. Could be a good solo play at 6-1 and likely higher…win and exacta play.
#7 World Beater – Mott, R./Torres – Look at the history. He tried the dirt two times and could not find the track. Moves to turf and OMG, He’s a new horse. Not a high-level player, but what great form coming into this race. I like the thought of young Riley moving into this level. The colt is two for two at the distance and keeps up with 1:35 at a mile and pressed on to win in excellent times at Churchill. Two back, he split horses, and Jamie wasn’t afraid to do it. Sounds like a confident combination. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the exacta at all at 10-1. Excellent longshot play.
#8 Flying Mohawk - Beckman/Dettori - We are racing in the land of the Mohawks, so what better to have this entry. Things to note: last race was a wash. He wasn’t able to get out and play with the field with 18 others, a sloppy track is not his preference, He has run against the ML favorite and closed well with a 106 pace to finish second against Final Gambit, finally, one of the world’s best turf riders is up for this race…Danger… don’t leave this guy off your ticket.
Handigambling
It’s going to be a contentious pace with Tank taking the lead and deciding how that will play out till the mile mark. Expect someone to press, likely World Beater or Test Score.
You can pick one here at a reasonable price to WPS or not. The odds don’t preclude a wager, but the prospects are narrow. I’ll do the below☆ as it makes sense to me without spending wild sums for a ‘perfect’ win
$3 EXACTA – All with 3,7,8 $63 hoping two longshots team up.
Or my wager…
The best longshot bet based on his form and odds is #7
☆Another way to play for $63….$3 exacta All with 7, $12 to Win 7, $30 to show 7 $63
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