Turf stars seeking green in Arlington Stakes
By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper
Churchill is featuring a multi-stakes day on Saturday with five graded stakes and a black type in alternating dirt and turf surfaces. We’re looking to capitalise on the Arlington (G3). Weather should be good; however, rain is in the forecast for Friday and may impact the lawn races.
We have several horses who have recently raced against each other except #7 Silent Heart, who’s been racing at Gulfstream since last fall. Except for Silent Heart, all have seen each other in a race at some point in their careers, and every one of today’s runners is familiar with Churchill’s lawn. Some with great success, so let’s start there.
#5 Lagynos – Asmussen/Prat – Just missed against Brilliant Berti above going a mile here on May 1. The video shows a good battle between them in the stretch. Part has taken this horse into the money 3 times with one win. He is a stalwart runner, and he is also on a third time out after a layoff. Must use ITM and exotics.
#8 Mercante – Knippenberg/Ramos JD – You may not be familiar with the trainer, but, he has entered 9 races this year and is winning at 56% and 67% ITM. JD Ramos missed by 3/4 of winning the Grade I Turf Classic here on a good turf going longer. I think he likes the artificial surface best, but he can show his talent on the grass as well, going ITM 5 of five attempts. Dangerous to leave off your tickets.
I see the above as your top contenders and below are the longshots that could very well upset or make you exotics bloom.
#6 Call Protection – Maker/Ortiz, I. Jr – Maker sends his charge out after winning a 100K optional, claiming race by 2 & 1/2 going a mile and an eighth a month ago in near record time, 1:45.52 going through traffic. He’s two for three on the grass. Maker has upgraded his jockey choice, in my opinion. The win above came on a firm turf going 98 Bris speed. That may well do it. If he runs like last out and makes a mile in the lead at 1:33, he could crush the field. My top longshot and must play in exotics.
#3 Gigante - Asmussen/Ortiz JL – He was in the Turf Classic here earlier in the month along with Mercante, and he took the lead in the backstretch as the jockey saw the pace as too slow, I guess. Held on until the final eight and then gave in. Jockey change to a guy who has won with this horse two for three. If you look at the PPs, this is a horse who has steady speed throughout usually tracking the pace. Grinders get the job done when nobody is watching them. Another dangerous horse. ITM.
#7 Silent Heart - Lynch/Saez – He has not faced any of these before. In his last 10 races, he has only missed the money twice. He was third by a neck to a fine horse at Gulfstream, Fort Washington. Does his best racing when he is close to the pace and applies his middle space speed. He could be the speed of the race. Half to use him.
#4 Herchee – Pitts/Morales - Brilliant speed in his first race back since the fall, winning at the distance against 12 others at Keeneland. Morales being his exclusive rider is a plus. His tracking style, middle-pace figures and times between the calls show a horse that has matured and is ready to do something special. I can’t not put him in the mix.
The Others
#1 Event Detail – Walden/Rosario - He finished second behind the very hot pace from Call Protection above. Likes to be a late closer, but he has too many others here that can do that faster.
#2 Cameo
Performance - Walsh/Curtis - Wasn’t able to keep up the pace in the Turf
Classic last out and got lost in the crowd.
Handigambling….. Let’s not go crazy since there are 5 other stakes races to go Saturday.
$2 Trifecta $30
9 with 5, 6, 8 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
$2 Exacta $24
5, 6, 8, 9 with 3, 4, 7
Win bets on 3, 4, 7…..You choose how much based on the odds
Bonus bet
$1 Pick 3 Race 9-11 $8
9, 6, 3, 4 with 3, 6 with 2
