Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Louisiana Derby (G2)

 Digging for Gold in the Louisiana Derby

By: MaryJo Moncheski, Instagram @RacingWithJoJo  

 

The Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Racetrack looks to be a tough race with many early speed duelers with the most hyped contenders, Trainer Brad Cox’s John Hancock, and D. Wayne Lukas’ Caldera. 

 

Saturday's Louisiana Derby is highlighted as race 12 of 13 with a 5:42 PM CT post time. 

 

 

 

I am not one to follow the crowd and enjoy looking for horses that have the most potential to beat the chalk AND pay me a price. My picks for today will be 2-5-1-6. My background is in Horse Judging so let’s break it down Horse Judging Style.

 

 Top Pair: 2 over 5

#2 Chunk of Gold with Fair Grounds mainstay Jockey Jareth Loveberry and Trainer Ethan West. With the speed favoring 1-4-5-6-7-8, I looked for a horse that has the speed to compete but most potential to win as a closer. He is a little out of my “rested” criteria with a $43 payout last time out. I like them to be rested between 30-60 days, have speed, and $4.80 or less last time out. This is an angle that has done pretty well for me. However, with only three races and coming in second to Magnitude in his last race, I will give him a pass. He kept up with the distance. I don’t think another half furlong will be a detriment with him being a presser and a closer. Lastly, Chunk of Gold has experience in a G2 class.

#5 Caldera with Jockey Tyler Gaffalione fits within my rested angle with several bullet workouts. This horse has gotten better with every race increasing his Beyer speed figure each time. It’s still a question mark as to why Trainer Lukas shipped him to Sunland; however, we’ll just believe it was a prep for today. He’s had 4 starts with 1 win and 2 seconds, not too shabby. He is moving up in class, which puts him below #2 Chunk of Gold.

Bottom Pair: 1 over 6

#1 John Hancock will be the heavy favorite, especially after so many anticipated his run in the Colonial Downs Derby. I really want to believe this horse can win three in a row, but like Caldera, he has to overcome the bump in class. Jockey Flavian Prat can get him the speed needed to win; however, will he be able to get him to the front where he likes to sit? We shall see. #5 Caldera just has a little more in Past Performances for me than John Hancock for the competition in this race.

#6 Built rounds out the Superfecta with Jockey Jose Ortiz. He gave a good effort behind Chunk of Gold in the G2 Risen Star; however, Magnitude couldn’t be matched by anyone. While he also fits my rested angle, he just doesn’t have enough consistent Beyer speed for me to place him higher. I do like that he came back in form after a 60+ day layoff with a 92 Beyer in the Gun Runner Stakes, then lost by a neck in the Lecomte in slop. In a duel to the front, I think he will tire before John Hancock and Caldera.

Handigamble:

$10 win: 2

$2 exacta box: 2-5

.50 trifecta box: 2-5-1

Feeling lucky .10 superfecta box: 2-5-1-6

Total: $19.40

 

Born and raised in St. Louis, MO, MaryJo Moncheski currently resides in Indianapolis, IN. MaryJo have been an equestrian for 33 years and involved in various sectors of the Equine Industry. Horse Racing has been in the background of her life as her Grandpa Eddie owned a racehorse at Fairmont Park in St. Louis during the 1970s and 80s. He was a handicapper, too.

 

Beyond participating in handicapping contests, she never grows tired of connecting to people and understanding their role in the industry with every track she visits. There is something magical about horse racing- maybe it’s the familiar smells and sounds of the barn, the collective energy of people who love horses (all things horses), or even the mental stimulation of horseplaying (Equine Chess, as she calls it), but it feels like home to her. Recently, to share her passion, enthusiasm, and positive narratives about the industry, she created an Instagram @RacingWithJoJo. Please be sure to give her a follow!