Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Arlington Million (G1)

  

Will it be a Mystikal Million?

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Hadicapper

I’ve always loved the Arlington Million. The history. The prestige. Everything about it. I’ve learned to continue my affection now that it’s at Colonial (R.I.P. Arlington). The sweeping turf course, like Arlington, gives everyone a chance.

Unfortunately, this year’s addition is a bit watered down with Saratoga running the Sword Dancer on the same day. But that doesn’t mean we can’t dope out a bet or two.

The Grade 1 is featured as race 11 of 12 with a 5:54 PM ET post.

Let’s look at the field: 

1.  Mystic Dan (9/2) – Things seemed to go south on the 2024 Derby winner for a few starts. Kenny seems to have him going good again. His Stephen Foster effort is better than it looks on paper. Mindframe stalked a slowish pace and held sway against Whitney winner Sierra Leone and Dan was only 2.5 lengths away. His turf work looked just fine, and I would expect him to transfer his form to the grass. WIN CONTENDER

2.  Time Song (30/1)  This speedy son of Not This Time has one win in 12 tries. Perhaps he can wire them, but it won’t be with any of my support. TOSS

3.  Vesting (12/1)  Mike Maker sends out another entrant that seems to like it up on the engine. He doesn’t seem like he needs the lead, however and could work out a stalking trip. He’s cutting back in distance but has only cleared his Allowance other than condition.    This is a G1, folks. TOSS

4.  Runaway Storm(20/1)  With only 8 starts on his card, Runaway Storm has a G3 win to his credit…2 years ago. This seems like a tall order, but this is the first time since that win that he has put three efforts in a row together. Perhaps he can get a slice. LONGSHOT CHANCE

5.  Cairo (IRE) (7/2)  Fresh off a placing in the Group 1 Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, Cairo (Ire) comes in with some solid credentials. His company lines alone make him fancied, but seems challenged in the win department. He is 0 for 12 over the last 2 years in top Euro company. I’m also suspicious of his forward style in a race with other speed types here Stateside.   TOSS

6.  Fort Washington (4/1)  He always puts forth a good effort to be there or thereabouts lately. He is a solid G2 or G3 runner. In this field, that makes him one of the most accomplished. I like his closing style in today’s speed laden event. On the downside, his last race seemed a bit flat as he was on his wrong lead finishing. He may relish today’s distance. WIN CONTENDER

7.  Grand Sonata (8-1)  Cuts back after a nice run at Monmouth in the United Nations, where he was second to a Chad runner. Grand Sonata has quietly amassed a $2.2 million bankroll and is another runner who seems to always show up and grab a slice. Not sure he can win here, but he will round out some exotics. BOARD RUNNER

8.  Integration (8/5)  Our morning line favorite is deserving of that role. Integration has been on a steady diet of G1 events running with the likes of Deterministic, Carl Spakler and Spirit of St. Louis. He has 3 wins and a 2^nd in four tries at Colonial, including a run in this race last year where he lost to Nation’s Pride – the Sword Dancer favorite. WIN CONTENDER

SUMMARY

The first question one must ask here is, can Mystik Dan transfer his form to the turf? If you answer that as a yes, he’s a major player. He will most likely be over bet based on familiarity.

The second question here is how much credit does one give to Cairo (Ire) coming in on top European form? For me, I respect his company, but I just don’t like forward running Euros in speed type U.S. races. He will take money, and I am looking elsewhere. 

Finally, this race sets up for both Fort Washington and Integration, with the latter garnering more support at the windows. 

THE BET:  (based on $100 wagered)

$30 exacta box – Mystik Dan & Fort Washington

$20 exacta Fort Washington with Mystik Dan & Integration

Good Luck!

  

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Whitney Stakes

 Showdown in the Whitney Stakes

By: The Turk  

Fierceness opening in The Alysheba

 Welcome friends to the ThoroFan Blog, where I generally handicap turf races and construct exacta bets.  

While I do like Turf Racing, especially older horses over a route of grass, I don't ignore the dirt, especially this current crop of older dirt runners that is deep and very talented.  

I still generally avoid 2-3 YOs on dirt because I just find I'm not that good at that, but a field like today's Whitney at Saratoga, who can't be excited?

I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan as always for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.  You can find my work at my new Facebook Page as well as a new Twitter/X handle, or just come to my blog.  Thank you.

Let's just dive right in.  I'm only highlighting two videos today, Mindframe's Stephen Foster Handicap win and Fierceness at The Alysheba.  I could have kept going but something like the Met Mile, run in slop, just isn't that relevant.  

28 June 2025; Stephen Foster Handicap G1 at CD:  1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt

 

2 May 2025; The Alysheba Stakes G2 at CD: 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt (Track Record for Fierceness)

 

I generally don't get that hung up on stats such as post time favorites who win, but as this shows below, two turn dirt races at Saratoga are kinder to chalk than the moniker of "graveyards of favorites" would have you believe.  There is also difficult odds with deep closers . 

I define deep closers as I'm handicapping by subtracting Timeform US Pace Late from Early.  Anything greater than 50 points and I consider that a deep closer.  For example today, Sierra Leone has Early of 62, a Late of 132, a +70 differential.  You can see it in the running lines.  Because of the placement of the gate right before the first turn, Sierra Leone will fall further back tactically and will need a pace collapse to rally against.  My identified deep closers also includes Disarm and Post Time.  

Outside posts, like most tracks, will have lower odds.  Quality horses defy those odds.  For no particular reason, I give you 2008's Kentucky Derby and Big Brown (rest in peace Eight Belles).  

Some facts to nibble on regarding Saratoga (with sources linked below):

• Among all two‑turn dirt races at Saratoga, the completion‐of‐the‐distance (post time favorites) win rate is around 42.8%. (1)
• In those races, the majority of winners tend to be either early speed horses (pacesetters) or trackers/stalkers, while true deep closers have notably less success, especially on the main track—closing types rarely prevail unless the pace collapses. (2) 

• Wire‑to‑wire/front‑runner winners likely account for roughly 30–40% of wins at this distance, depending on pace.
• Closers probably win in the low‑teens percentage, especially on main‑track routes.
• Stalkers/pressers dominate many of the remaining races. (2) (3)

• The starting gate for 9‑furlong dirt races at Saratoga is positioned just before the first turn, which gives inside posts (1–4) a meaningful advantage if the horse has early speed, as they can secure a favorable position before the turn. (4)
• Historically, the inside four posts have shown a slight edge in win percentage in Saratoga two‑turn dirt races (i.e. at the 9 furlong distance). (5)
• Races from posts 8 and wider have been statistically disadvantaged: in one analyzed sample, horses drawn from post positions 8 and outward combined to be 1‑for‑31 in victories, roughly ~3% win rate from those wide posts. (5)
• That leaves middle posts (5–7) winning a substantial share of races, sometimes outperforming expectations or at least compensating for favoritism bias. (5)

• If drawn post 1–3 in a 9‑furlong dirt route at Saratoga: your horse has historically enjoyed a ~50–55% chance of being the winner.
• Drawing post 4–6 still offers a solid ~10–12% win rate, reflective of middle-post performance.
• Posts 7 onward yield drastically lower success rates—typically <5% per post—mainly due to early turn dynamics and shorter run to the first bend. (6)

The weather should be dry.  You'll find Track Condition and Scratches and Changes here.

Fair Odds: The Whitney Grade 1 at Saratoga.  

 

A race like today's Whitney for me is about establishing who should win, how the public views them (via the flawed morning line, my fair odds chart and the tote board), and what sort of contrarian view I can take in my exacta bet construction.  I say in today's race, but this is a process I follow for every race, with the only difference on a big handle day like today will be, I may go a bit deeper as the reward will be greater with the bigger handle.  

While I want contrarian, and the odds still say somewhere between 60-67% of favorites lose, it's hard not to like either Fierceness of Mindframe here.  Early speed, Late speed, tactical speed, Pletcher brings two beasts into the gate.  

From a contrarian point of view, White Abarrio and Highland Falls are Grade 1 winners over this track and can easily be overlooked.

White Abarrio at 6 YO now won this race as a 4 YO.  He's been training at Saratoga steady since late June after running in the slop of the Met Mile.  A $1.7 MM 2025 winner  can't just be ignorned.  Highland Falls, true value at 8-1 or so, took the classic distance Gold Cup at Saratoga last September.  Prat jumped off, but Cox brings the lightly races 5 YO son of Curlin in off a heavy favorite 1 mile win.  

I'm going to take a $2 Flyer and put Highland Falls/White Abarrio OVER Sierra Leone, Fierceness and Mindframe, a $2 exacta for $12.  

As always, have fun with it and don't be afraid to lose.  As your handicapping improves, trust your own instincts over the bias of the media articles or track commentators, or bald, third person talking handicappers like The Turk.  Look for value over betting favorites.  

Turk Out!

Sources

1: Link

2: Link

3: Link

4: Link

5: Link

6: Link

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Haskell Stakes (G1)

 

Journalism Headlines Deep Haskell Field with Breeders' Cup Implications

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Hello, racing fans. When we think of summer hotspots, Saratoga and Del Mar usually steal the spotlight. But come late July, all eyes shift to Monmouth Park on the Jersey Shore for the $1 million Grade 1 Haskell Stakes, our ThoroFan Race of the Week. With its ocean breeze, rich tradition, and a reputation for showcasing three-year-old stars, Monmouth becomes a must-visit summer destination—especially when the Haskell is on the schedule.

This year’s edition is shaping up to be a compelling chapter in the race’s storied history, headlined by Journalism, whose presence brings serious star power to the Haskell field. 

The Preakness winner and runner-up in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, Journalism arrives as one of the most accomplished 3-year-olds in the country. In the aforementioned Preakness, he unleashed a powerful late run to run down a gutsy Gosger, who had opened up a clear lead in the stretch and nearly pulled off a major upset. With both colts returning for this year’s Haskell, the rematch adds another layer of intrigue to Monmouth’s signature event.

The Haskell also serves as a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday, November 1st at Del Mar, with the winner earning an automatic berth and all entry fees paid as part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series.

Analysis – 2025 Haskell Stakes

The likely pace scenario sets up with Gosger and Bracket Buster as the primary speed players. Gosger showed front-running strength in the Preakness and figures to go straight to the front again from post 6. Bracket Buster, drawn on the rail, doesn’t have the class edge but may be asked for early speed to avoid getting trapped inside.

One wildcard in the early mix is Wildncrazynight, a local runner with natural early foot who could add some pressure to the front end if he’s sent. His presence adds a layer of uncertainty—if he joins the fray, the early pace could get lively.

Goal Oriented and Kentucky Outlaw should sit just off the leaders, while Journalism and Burnham Square will likely settle midpack and look to launch late. Journalism in particular has shown the ability to rate and finish—ideally suited to capitalize if the leaders soften one another up.

Expect the front end to get contested, tilting things in favor of the stalkers and closers.

Top Selections

1st: Journalism – Classy, tactical, and proven against the best and suited to a contested pace.
2nd: Burnham Square – The grinding, consistent type who will benefit from pace pressure up front.
3rd: Goal Oriented – Improving Baffert colt with a good trip setup behind the speed.
Note: Gosger – Still dangerous, but more likely to hang on for a piece than hold off everyone.

Haskell Wagering Strategy

$25 Straight Exactas – Total Cost $50

• Journalism (2) over Burnham Square (4)                                                     Journalism (2) over Goal Oriented (8)
• $3 Trifecta Part Wheel – $18 Total
• 1st: Journalism (2)                                                                                   2nd: Burnham Square (4), Goal Oriented (8)                                             3rd: Burnham Square (4), Goal Oriented (8), Gosger (6), Kentucky Outlaw (7)
• $3 Superfecta Part Wheel – $24 Total
•  1st: Journalism (2)                                                                                   2nd: Burnham Square (4), Goal Oriented (8)                                              3rd: Burnham Square (4), Goal Oriented (8), Gosger (6)                               4th: Burnham Square (4), Goal Oriented (8), Gosger (6), Kentucky Outlaw (7)

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!!