It's Post Time for the 2024 Cigar Mile
By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan
The Cigar Mile is a grade two event of handicap weight conditions. Eleven horses will run the mile on the dirt for a purse of $500,000. The weather at Aqueduct will be beautiful, with the temperature around 40 degrees at the 3:35 Post Time.
Let’s look at the field.
1.Book’em Danno (Bucchero) is a seasoned 7-furlong runner winning the Woody Stephens (GI) in June at Saratoga. Working bullets. In the money for both tries at Aqueduct. Keeps Irad Ortiz. Drops weight off the last 8 races. One of three 3-year-olds taking on older horses. Should be strategically placed for a stretch run. Mile distance concern.
2.Nelson Avenue (Into Mischief) One of four challenging for the lead. Stepping up to grade two company. Retains hot NY-based jockey Dylan Davis. Likes mile distance. Others faster.
3. Repo Rocks (Tapiture) Another speedster. Working bullets. Hasn’t regained his 2023 form. Mile distance a plus.
4. Vinsanity (Tapiture) Another 3-year-old getting weight advantage; twelve pounds under Mullikin and Post Time. Slower than most of the field. Gets a new jockey for a better fit.
5. Mullikin (Violence) can run on the lead but closed for third in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Keeps top jockey, Flavien Prat. Owns the top speed figure. High weight at 124 may be a problem. One-for-one at Aqueduct. May like it shorter.
6.Law Professor (Constitution) Won prep going long at Aqueduct. May like the early pace for position, but should be doing his best work late. Performed better at longer distances. Asking a lot.
7. Locked (Gun Runner) Second start as a 3-year-old. Coming off an eleven-month rest after placing third in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Fierceness and Muth. Retains Johnny Velazquez. Hard to know how he will perform in this race. Worth a play.
8. Pipeline (Speightstown) Working bullets. Gets a new jockey. Ran a 7-furlong race once, finishing fourth in the Forego (GI) at Saratoga in 2023. Distance OK. If the early pace is very fast, he may be moving down the lane for a piece.
9. Senor Buscador (Mineshaft) Woking bullets. Hasn’t won since February. Top money winner at $12.9 million. Knows how to win the big races. Fast enough to be competitive. Better at longer distances. Which Senor B will show up?
10. Coastal Mission (Great Notion) Solid closer who likes this distance. Speed figures are questionable. He’s at the right level with his regular jockey up. He won the Forty Niner (G3) at Aqueduct by a length and gave Millikin a scare in July at Aqueduct in 7-furlong race. Should be competitive.
11. Post
Time (Frosted) Three wins at 7 furlongs out of 4 tries, but he’s better at a
mile and keeps his regular jockey. Carries the high weight for the Cigar Mile. He’s
won and placed at Aqueduct and should be running late.
Analysis
This a very tough race to Handicap. Four horses will likely contest the pace but will not win. The fast pace will favor a closer. The 3-year-olds will be disadvantaged, although one could do well. Senor Buscador has a great resume but needs to show better recent form. That leaves three with a greater chance to win---Mullikin, Coastal Mission and Post Time.
Here is how I think they will finish:
11. Post Time (7-2)
5. Mullikin (3-1)
10. Coastal Mission (12-1)
7. Locked (9-2)
Handigamble:
$20 to win and place on Post Time #11-- $40
$2 Exacta Box: #5,#10, #11----- $12
$2 Trifecta Box: # 5,#7, #10, #11 ---$48
