Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Whitney Stakes (G1)

 Vulnerable favorite in Whitney Stakes

By: John Caro, ThorFan Handicapper

Another of the great stakes races at Saratoga and a Win-and-You're-In for the 2024 Breeders' Cup Classic. The weather may play a factor against the well-known favorite, National Treasure. No, no, not the 2004 film with Nicholas Cage. This is Bob Baffert’s production and possibly older horse of the year.

The Whitney Stakes is featured as race 11 of 13 with a 5:42 p.m. EDT post time. As of this writing, according to the National Weather Service, there's a 50 percent chance of rain.

Let’s review the field.

There is not a lot anyone can say about #3 National Treasure except he is a top performer since turning four and he’s the top money winner in this field. There are some things that concern me if the track is going to be wet/off. His two races when the track was off were not stellar, and both his speed and late pace were well below his norm. He likes to be on or near the lead. He did neither when the tracks were off. Can't leave him out of the mix, but and low odds I'll look elsewhere.

 Given the conditions, my top pick for this race is #9 Bright Future. Castellano had him out for a win in the Salvador Mile last month at Monmouth and was on him twice before for two wins here in the Grade I Jockey Club at 1 1/4 miles and an optional claiming race last year going today's distance. Although he's never gone on an off-track, he is out of a Bellamy Road mare by Curlin, so he should be well suited for the surface.

There are several long shots here that deserve mention.

#11 Arthur’s Ride is a Bill Mott trainee who flew home to a 12-length finish here on June 7 and repelled other horses into the stretch. His prior race was in the slop at Churchill, where he was the favorite, and the pps say he hates the slip, but there is more to the gate departure and an 8-wide trip. He's had recent work on a good track here, so I'm not concerned.

#10 Skippylongstocking has more races at the distance than the others and is 2 for 2 on a wet track.

#5 First Mission is another who likes a wet track and a tracker off the lead.

#1 Post Time is an extreme longshot who has won ten times his purchase price in dollars and never out of the money in his 11 races. He finished second to National Treasure in the GI Metropolitan this past month. He is a late-closing guy who has won both of his contests on a wet surface.

The rest of the field just didn't stand out to me.

Analysis/Picks

I prefer not to bet overwhelming favorites with low odds. You folks, look through your handicapping materials and find who you like for this race. For me, it is going to be an exacta box with my five above and leave the favorite off my ticket.

Exacta Box  - 1, 5, 9, 10, 11 – A $1 bet will cost $20 and pay nicely.

Might put place and show money on #1 for kicks.