Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Pacific Classic (G1)

 Seeking a miracle in the Pacific Classic

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

Del Mar’s premier race, The Pacific Classic, is on Saturday and all eyes would have been on Adare Manor.  Unfortunately, she tied up after a gallop on Friday morning and Bob Baffert, her trainer, decided it best to keep her in the barn and scratch.   

Let’s face it, without her, the race lacks some star power.  However, it is long on competitiveness.  There isn’t really a major player in the handicap division in California.  All the entrants are looking to take that spot, and it is an interesting handicapping puzzle to figure out who that might be.   

 

Here's the field: Horse(Trainer/Jockey/M-L)

1.  Il Miracolo (A. Sano/M. Smith5-1)  An East Coast shipper comes in on short rest with a decent score card.  A G3 winner who is seemingly always trying.  It could be argued that the racing back east is a bit tougher so there may be a sneaky class drop here. 

2.  There Goes Harvard (M. McCarthy/H. Berrios/15-1)  His last 2 starts were in graded events on the turf but he does own a G1 win at the distance in 2022.  Now 6, can he replicate that form?  If so, that might put him in the mix.  He would be a bit of a shock but connections who recently purchased him thinks he has some upside.

3.  Dr. Venkman (M. Glatt/A. Fresu/5-2)  A horse with some upside.  His last was his 1^st race around 2 turns and in a G2 beating Katona who is also racing here.  It’s possible for him to stretch out to today’s distance going up in class.  His 5/2ML seems short to see if he can do some new things.  But again, why not give it a shot in this field for this purse.

4.  Reincarnate (B. Baffert/K. Kimura/8-1)  Always seems to be in the hunt but never seems to seal the deal.  His last win was in the listed Los Al Derby just over a year ago.  If things went his way, he could certainly grab a slice

5.  Katonah (D. O’Neil/T. Pereira/8-1)  He is 2^nd off a year layoff today.  His 1^st start back was a good 2^nd to Dr. Venkman.  This is a tall ask for this 5yo gelding but good connections must think a lot of him. 

6.  Full Serrano (Arg) (J. Sadler/R. Gutierrez/12-1)  Another entry who is 2^nd off a layoff.  He will be taking them as far as he can on the lead.  He did win at the distance in his homeland of Argentina on the grass.  Sadler, his conditioner, has won this race 4 of the last 6 years and says that he has “trained his way into this race”.  

7.  Adare Manor (B. Baffert/JJ Hernandez/9-5)  SCRATCHED

8.  None Above the Law (J. Periban/J. Laprida/20-1)  A Cal bred who looks up against it. 

9.  Mixto (D. O’Neil/K. Frey/20-1) A winner of 1 race in 13 tries.  I wish them luck.

 

SUMMARY:  Can Full Serrano (Arg) wire the field?  Will Dr. Venkman continue his ascent to G1 glory?  Can Katonah move forward 2^nd off a layoff of one year?  Perhaps Reincarnate finds the “eye of the tiger” and runs a big one.  Quite frankly, take your pick! 

For me, I will side with Il Miracolo.  I feel he has been keeping some sneaky better company on the East Coast.  He has a tracking style from the rail and should sit a good trip.  Big $$$ Mike Smith is in the boot.  His speed figures size up will against these.  Why not…as this is where my dart landed.  I am also interested in Full Serrano (Arg) as the speed of the speed and Dr. Venkman as I think he can keep moving forward.

 

THE BET: 

Based on $100 wagered:

$60 win Il Miracolo

$20 exacta Il Miracolo with Dr. Venkman and Full Serrano (Arg)

Good Luck!

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Travers Stakes (G1)

Filly vs. Colts in Travers Stakes

The $1.25 million Travers Stakes is the highlight of the Saratoga meet. Monikered the “Midsummer Derby,” the 1 1/4 mile Grade 1 event attracts the leaders of the 3-year-old division.

Haskell and Belmont Stakes hero Dornoch faces the leading 3-year-old filly, Thorpedo Anna, plus Jim Dandy victor Fierceness and five others in an exciting challenge.

The Travers is carded as race 13 of 14, with a post time of 6:10 PM EST.

The collective minds of the ThoroFan Handicappers offer their choices for first through third place and our best longshot bombs.

May the odds be ever in your favor!

 

HANDICAPPER	FIRST	SECOND	THIRD	LONGSHOT
Michael Amo	Sierra Leone	Honor Marie	Fierceness	Batten Down
John Caro	Dornoch	Thorpedo Anna	Batten Down	Sierra Leone
Nick Costa	Sierra Leone	Dornoch	Thorpedo Anna	Corporate Power
Stuart deVoe	Unmatched Wisdom	Dornoch	Sierra Leone	Thorpedo Anna
Robert Marks	Sierra Leone	Fierceness	Thorpedo Anna	Batten Down
Laurie Ross	Dornoch	Sierra Leone	Fierceness	Honor Marie
Rowan Ward	Thorpedo Anna	Dornoch	Sierra Leone	Honor Marie

 

 

Handicaper's Corner: 2024 King's Plate Stakes

 King's Plate kicks off Canadian Triple Crown

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Hello everyone, this Saturday, ThoroFan heads north to Canada and visits Woodbine Racetrack, for the $1-million King’s Plate, the opening leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. The 1 1/4-mile race is North America’s longest continuously run stakes race.

Nine Canadian-bred three-year-old horses from three separate trainers make up more than two-thirds of the 13-horse field for the 165^th King’s Plate, including a formidable trio from conditioner Mark Casse, who is looking to win his fourth Plate. The “big three’ from the Casse stable are led by My Boy Prince, champion two-year-old of 2023 and Plate Trial winner. His stablemates, Essex Serpent and Midnight Mascot, finished first and third, respectively in the June 29^th G3 Marine Stakes.

The 2024 running of the King’s Plate won’t disappoint racing fans who root for the opposite sex, because what is the Plate without filly representation, right? Usually, the winner of the Woodbine Oaks heads to the Plate, but this year, the Oaks runner-up, Caitlinhrgreatness, trained by another Plate winning trainer Kevin Attard, challenges the boys. Attard will also saddle Jokestar, 5^th in the Plate Trial, Pierre, who is coming off a third-place allowance finish on the grass and the maiden, Bedard.

Recent maiden winner, Vitality and stablemate, Rafaroo, who is still a maiden, but was 2^nd in the Plate Trail, hail from the Harold LaDouceur barn.

Following the King’s Plate, the next stop on the Triple Crown Road will be at Fort Erie Racetrack, on September 10^th, for the Prince of Wales Stakes. The series will then conclude back at Woodbine on September 29^th, with the running of the Breeders’ Stakes. The last horse to sweep the series was Wando (2003).

Posttime for the Plate is 6:10 p.m. E.S.T.  

ANALYSIS:

7 – My Boy Prince is the deserving morning-line favorite and probable betting favorite. He comes into the Plate riding a three-race win streak and has won 6 of 10 lifetime starts with only a single out of the money finish. He appears to simply have a class edge over his Plate rivals and showed perseverance and determination when winning the Trail after rearing up at the start. However, legitimate concerns arise about the difficult Plate distance for this sprinter-miler, which allow a few others a chance to upset the 2-year-old champ.

2 – Rafaroo – Maiden outran his long odds in both his starts. He rallied from last in his debut to finish second and then stepped up significantly in class when testing deeper waters in the Plate Trial to be second best again. He made a quick move on the far turn, going wide into the lane. He chased the winner (My Boy Prince) home but ran out of real estate. With only two lifetime races, he may have more to offer, and his Plate Trial performance certainly proved he belongs with this group.

3 – Essex Serpent only began racing this season and sports an 2-1-0 record after just three starts, improving in each outing. He was the winner of the G3 Marine Stakes, and although he raced on the lead for much of the way over a speed favoring surface, it was an impressive and sharp score, nonetheless. His breeding suggests he will stay the distance.

4 - Caitlinhrgreatness led in the Oaks, only to be caught late. She had to be supplemented to the Plate for 25k, but fillies traditionally perform well in the event, having won 38 times and five out of the last 13 years. The filly has improved her form since arriving in Canada and recently drilled a five-furlong morning work. She fits here with the boys.

5 – Midnight Mascot – He rallied nicely over the speed-conducive track to finish non-threatening third in the G3 Marine Stakes, marking a much-improved effort. If he can build upon it, he has every chance to win. Looks like he will appreciate the added distance.

WAGER:

With our $100 mythical ThoroFan dollars, we will make the following wagers.

$50 win bet on Caitlinhergrtness

$20 exacta box Cailinhergrtness/My Boy Prince

$10 win saver Essex Serpent

Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!