Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Stephen Foster (G1)

 Nine on a Grade 1 Mission in the Stephen Foster Stakes

By: The Turk

 

    Welcome Friends to The Turk blog, where The Turk has been writing and ruminating about horse racing since 2008.  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.  

    The Turk isn't much of a Triple Crown handicapper.  Truth be told, I'm primarily an older horse, running over a route of grass, type of fella.  

I like data.  I like the data that a large field of turf veterans provides me.  That said, I've really refined my dirt thinking to ignoring the early part of the year and concentrating on July-early November, the run up to the Breeders' Cup.  

The Stephen Foster  is generally the first dirt race I handicap in a year and this year is no exception.  Before we go too far, who was Stephen Foster, what is his enduring impact on our culture, and what makes the Stephen Foster an important race prospectively? 

Stephen Foster (1826-1864) was an American songwriter known as the "father of American music." He composed over 200 songs, many of which remain popular, including "Oh! Susanna," "Camptown Races," "My Old Kentucky Home," "Old Folks at Home" (also known as "Swanee River"), and "Beautiful Dreamer." Foster's music became deeply ingrained in American culture, often reflecting themes of the antebellum South.  

 It's highly doubtful from the Turk's perspective that anyone under 40, and few above 40, would still consider Foster the father of American music, but at 58 I can say his songs were some of the first I learned to play and sing along to in school.  

    Foster's work has had a lasting impact on American music and culture. His songs have been performed and recorded by countless artists over the years, keeping his melodies and lyrics alive. However, his legacy is complex and controversial. 

Many of his songs reflect the racial attitudes and stereotypes of his time, which are now considered offensive (feel free to read the original lyrics to "My old Kentucky Home and you'll understand").  His work is an important part of American musical heritage, but it also serves as a reminder of the nation's complicated history with race and representation. 

 Some, not The Turk,  have done a re-examination of his work and its place in contemporary culture. The Turk believes you should consider historical figures contextually, based on the norms of their era, not against our evolution as a culture, which has righteously moved forward in race relations and attitudes.   

Anyways, it's OK to understand Stephen Foster's impact on music, it's also important to understand some of his lyrics were racist, it was a more racist society then, and thank God we don't have racist lyrics anymore, just now someone get rid of Coldplay.  I digress.

The Stephen Foster is a prestigious Grade I thoroughbred horse race held annually at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Surprisingly, it was only inaugurated in 1982 and named in honor of the before-mentioned Stephen Foster and his "My Old Kentucky Home"  which associated with the Kentucky Derby.  If you want to have a beef with Stephen Foster's song, ask why it took 4 years after the race was started before the original lyrics were changed.  

Here are some key points about the history of The Stephen Foster:

   - The race was first run on June 26, 1982, and quickly became a significant event in the American horse racing calendar.

   - Initially, the race was classified as a Grade III event but was upgraded to Grade II status in 1988 and eventually to Grade I status in 2002, reflecting its increasing prestige and the quality of the competing horses.

   - The Stephen Foster is run over a distance of 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs) on the dirt track at Churchill Downs (except last year)

   - It is open to horses aged four years and older and typically attracts top older horses from across the United States (relatively speaking!) 

   - Over the years, the race has been won by several notable horses. Some of the most famous winners include Black Tie Affair (1991), Awesome Again (1998), Victory Gallop (1999), and Curlin (2008), who have also made their mark in other major races. 

OK, enough Turk ramblings, let's get it on!  Let's look at some key videos.

17 May 2024; The Pimlico Special G3; 1 3/16 miles on Fast Dirt at PIM. Pyrenees/1, Kingsbarn/7 went for the exacta.  

3 May 2024; The Alysheba Stakes G2; 1 1/16 miles over sloppy dirt; First Mission/2, Steal Sunshine/8, the Winner and an also ran.  

1 June 2024; The Blame Stakes G3; 1 1/8 miles over fast dirt at CD.  Dreamlike/5 for Show.  Blinkers on today.  

20 April 2024; The Ben Ali Stakes G3; 1 3/16 over fast dirt; Kingsbarn/7, Happy American/3.  beaten Place for heavy chalk and also ran.

20 April 2024; The Oaklawn Handicap G2; 1 1/8 over Fast Dirt; Skipylongstocking/9 dominant chalk performance.  

What a field!  Its so rare that I say that these days but it is a very impressive group collected together.  

I could make a case for any of First Mission, Skippylongstocking, Disarm or Kingsbarn to win.  In doing so, I just discounted 4 straight winner Pyrenees who I think is tactically too slow, and mildly Dreamlike, who goes with Blinkers on for Pletcher today (18% Blinkers winner 65 starts).  I only discount Dreamlike because of consistency but I think is very worth a look at fair odds north of 9-1. 

I've rambled so long I'm going to actually keep the handicap very brief.  Looking at the weather, expect a fast track.  You can find track conditions and scratches and changes here.  

First Mission should win this race.  7 of 8 lifetime exacta, 6 of 7 lifetime on fast dirt, 2 of 3 exacta at the distance, back to back dominant wins and on Cox home turf  where he's training very sharp.  I will put him no higher than Place because I want value.  I like Disarm or Dreamlike in a deep stretch run to take the wire with both Skippylongstocking and First Mission covered in Place

As you can see, this is more of a betting strategy than just going with my base handicap.  If you are new to reading me, my chart is what I call the Base Handicap.  It's what should happen.  "Should" is boring and doesn't cover your losses over time.  My fair odds chart identified Disarm as running past his morning line.  I like the late speed and my gamble is a return to form.  

Have fun friends!

Turk out 

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Ohio Derby (G3)

 Catching Freedom seeks another graded win in Ohio Derby

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

First of the summer derbies is at Thistledown Racetrack near Cleveland. Thoroughbreds have been racing in Ohio since 1833, and it is very popular.

Ohio's first Derby was run in 1876 and won by Bombay going a mile and a half. The race is considerably shorter today at a mile and an eighth. Weather is forecast for 20% chance of showers, and very hot for the region. Expect a dry, fast track.

Let’s take a look at the field.

There is no question about the class of this race: #8 Catching Freedom trained by Brad Cox. Cox has won this Derby twice in the past five years. Luis Saez gets the mount. The class relief is enough to judge him the deserving favorite. With Saez up, I expect Catching Freedom will be closer to the pace. Win contender.

#9 Batten Down is an interesting choice coming from the Mott barn with his go-to jockey Junior Alvarado up. Last seen winning his 120k maiden by 8.5 lengths going a mile and a quarter. Prior finishes were close, half a length and a neck. Real potential at 8-1 ML odds. Excellent longshot and exacta play.

#2 Gould's Gold trained by Ken McPeek and ridden by Brian Hernandez (the Kentucky Derby dream team), was last seen losing by a nose in the muddy Sir Barton Stakes on Preakness day. Steadily improving gray colt shares the same sire as Mystik Dan: Goldencents. I expect to see him close up in the pace but he has shown he can close from off the pace as well. ITM contender.

#4 Copper Tax is 7 for 10 lifetime and was last seen winning the Tesio at Laurel with good numbers throughout his career when he's racing in  Delaware. His visits to Tampa for the Sam Davis and Aqueduct for the Remsen were nowhere near his best. It gives me pause, but he's been rested and been stretched out with two back-to-back 6 furlong works by his 30% winning trainer, Gray Capuano. Torrealba retains the ride and has taken him to victory in his last two outings as a black type runner. Can't leave him out.

Then there are others who have shown they can win but don't thrill me….

#1 Frizzante is in the money a lot with lesser company, and speed figures are slow. Didn't break his maiden until race 7.

#3 Charleston is still a maiden, but he gets the services of local top jockey Luis Rivera, who is winning at 25% and ITM 56%; Rivera also wins routes here 27% of the time and is 65% ITM. The colt has been in a new barn hosted by Michael Rone since February, shooting bullets in training, and will go with blinkers on to the race. Trainer/Jockey are 3 for 3 in the last 14 days. If you are a true longshot player this is your pick at 30-1 ML. Don't go crazy with your money but there is only upside for this guy. Watch the tote board!

#5 Uncle Heavy, man, I loved him early in the season, but he really seems to have lost his form since his victory in the Withers Stakes last fall. It wasn't that he got in big trouble in the Preakness or the Wood (nobody should go that wide that often to win); he just wasn't motivated to go. Bottom of the exotics.

#6 Deposition just doesn't have the form to make this trip on 17 day rest. Toss

#7 Who's the King is owned by Kenneth Ramsey and trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. I have the utmost respect for both but Not This Time.

#10 Mugatu has not won a race in his last 8 races or ITM in the last four. Toss

 

Analysis

From a horse racing fan perspective, I want to see Catching Freedom win and move on to the late summer Travers. Had him in with Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone for the Derby and was surprised he wasn't nose-to-nose with all of them. From a betting perspective, I'm going to Key Batten Down. He has good upside when he finishes first or second.

Handigambling menu with $100    Bet them like you see them

$1.50 Trifecta 9 with 2,4,8 with 2,3,4,5,8     $18

$2.50  Trifecta 2,4,8 with 9 with 2,3,4,5,8     $30

$5 Exacta 2,3,4,5,8 with 9     $25

$3 Exacta 9 with 2,3,4,5,8     $15

$3 Exacta Box 8 & 9                $6

And if you decide to bet the 3 use the last $6 - $2 across the board.

Handicaper's Corner: 2024 Bed o' Roses Stakes (G2)

They will be flying in the Bed o'Roses Stakes

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Handicaper

Seventy-seven years ago, Bed o'Roses was foaled. The year 1947. This weekend, we honor this spectacular Thoroughbred, who was named the 2-year-old Filly of the Year in 1949 and the Older Female of the Year in 1951, with a race named after her.

The event is scheduled as Race 10 with a 5:13 PM ET post time at Aqueduct Racecourse as part of the Belmont at Aqueduct card. 

 

Ten older fillies and mares have entered to race the 7 furlongs for a share of the $200,000 purse.

 Let's look at the field.

 

    1. Apple Picker (Connect) enters after winning a 6-furlong race at Pimlico over a muddy track. She will need early pace to be competitive, as she does most of her running in the stretch. Gets Hall of Fame jockey Johnny Velazquez, which can't hurt. Could be in the money.     

    2.   Big Pond (Mr. Big) Keeps jockey Junior Alvarado after a second-place finish in the Vagrancy Stakes on this Aqueduct track when the track was labeled with a closing bias. She has 3 grade one efforts finishing second in one. In the exotics?

    3.   Accede (Into Mischief) Home bred by Juddmonte Farms to a $500,000 sire. Perhaps the class of the field. She has a tactical running style that will get her a number of calls. Keeps Irad Ortiz for trainer Chad Brown. Could be a surprise, unlikely in the Winner's Circle this time.

    4.   Morning Matcha (Central Banker) She has been in the money 5 times out of 8 tries over the Aqueduct surface –Horse for Course? Has a powerful closing time but does not show the form likely needed to overtake this field.

    5.   Just Katherine (Justify) may like it longer to show her stuff. Owns a win at Aqueduct. Has raced against this level before. Off for over 3 months and needs to improve her form to be competitive here.

    6.   Flying Connection (Nyquist) Finished 2^nd and 3^rd in her last two which were grade one races. She has a dual running style and can sit off the pace and close or push the pace. Her versatility gives her an advantage in this race. Possible winner.

    7.   Hot Fudge (Liam's Map) Is another likely closer in a field packed with that running style. Is trying a grade two race for the first time. Bought for $235,000. Would like to see how she handles the class before recommending her. Watch and wait.

       8. Shidabhuti (Practical Joke) She checks a lot of the boxes. Shows form improvement over the last two races. She is usually strategically placed with a quick closing time. Retains jockey, Dylan Davis, whose father is tied with Irad Ortiz with three wins in this race. Irad has the mount on Chad Brown's horse to break tie. Dylan is the son of former jockey Robbie Davis, who also has three wins in this race. It might be a little motivation for Dylan to make the race a family affair with the second Brown entry. Maybe.

    9. Leave No Trace (Outwork) She is dropping down in company for trainer Serpe, who retains jockey Lezcano. Is likely to set the pace in the 7-furlong event. Current form suggestions she is ready to run following a win in the Vagrancy Stakes at Aqueduct in May, defeating Big Pond (#1), Hot Fudge (#7), and Beguine (#10). Should be in the exotics.

    10. Beguine (Gun Runner) She has pedigree in her corner as the daughter of Gun Runner. Ran well in the Fantasy Stakes (GIII) at Oaklawn Park as a 3-year-old. She has not regained potency in her 5-year-old year that she had in previous years. Will likely try to join the pace with Leave No Trace backing off in the stretch. Needs one.

 

Analysis

This should prove to be an interesting race with little front-end speed and strong cohort of closers.

The two speedsters come from far outside and will use plenty of energy getting to the front, although it looks like Leave No Trace will win that battle.

Shidabhuti with Davis up and Ortiz on Accede will be tactically placed to make the first move on the leaders. Closing strongly should be Flying Connection with Santana up as the wire nears.

Here is how I think they will finish.

6. Flying Connection (3-1)

8. Shidabhuti  (6-1)

9. Leave No Trace (12-1)

3. Accede (6-1)

Handigamble Play

 $2 Trifecta Box  3,6,8 and 9     $48

 $50 To Win on #6                     $50