Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Florida Derby (G1)

 Will Fierceness Spring Back in the Florida Derby?

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

As we enter the end of March, on Saturday at Gulfstream Park in Sunny Florida, we have the Grade 1 Florida Derby, a Grade 3 dirt race at 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds.

In order to qualify for entry into the Kentucky Derby, you must accumulate points earned in Derby Prep races. For this race, points are given to 1st place through 5th place (100, 50, 25, 15, 10). The Florida Derby will go off as Race 14 at 6:42 pm Eastern time. Here is a look at the 11-horse field.

Fierceness

(8-5) for Trainer Todd Pletcher and Owner Mike Repole will likely go off as the favorite. This colt finished 3rd at Gulfstream Park while Hades who won setting a slow pace. He did not show the brilliance he showed in earlier wins, including the Breeders Cup Juvenile.  However, He has been working out well since the Holy Bull defeat. If he runs his BC Juvenile race, he wins this race.  He will be coming out of the 10^th position in the starting gate. Veteran rider Johnny Velazquez is the Jockey. Look for Johnny V to waste no time getting Fierceness out early and near the leaders at the first turn.

Hades (7-2)

will be piloted by Paco Lopez. Trained by Joseph Orseno, this colt has 3 wins out of 3 starts, winning all three at Gulfstream Park, including the Holy Bull Stakes. His speed figures are only so-so but he does have an undefeated record. Some horses just find a way to win. I like his post position (2) and think he will sit just outside the leaders before making his move late. Also, Paco Lopez knows Gulfstream Park probably better than any jockey and is very comfortable here. He knows they already beat Fierceness last time out.

Le Dom Bro at 15-1 and has 4 seconds out of 4 starts over the Gulfstream Park. Ran an impressive 2^nd at the Fountain of Youth, going off as a 27-1 longshot. With relatively unknown trainer and jockey connections, I think this horse gets overlooked on the board and will sit close to his morning line odds. Had only one bad start out of six starts, on a muddy track at Aqueduct. His Sire is Mucho Macho Man, who always gave an honest effort, and we expect the same from his son. Look for Le Dom Bro to sit mid-pack before making his move late. A must-use in your exotics.

Looking at others you might want to look at Frankie’s Empire at 12-1. He was third in the Fountain of Youth (at Gulfstream) and beat le Dom Bro at 7 furlongs when he won the Swale Stakes.  Worth putting into your trifecta and superfecta box selections. His sire is Classic Empire who has an impressive 23% dirt route winners.

 

Summary

If you believe in Fierceness, he rebounds and wins this, unless you just toss him and hope to get lucky with Hades and others. For us, we will believe in Fierceness and think Johnny V puts him in position for a win. We will go with a straight-win bet and hope we hit the Tri.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$50-win Fierceness

$2Trifecta Box: Fierceness, Hades, Le Dom Bro, Frankie’s Empire (total bet $48)

$2 place: Le Dom Bro

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Louisiana Derby (G2)

 Louisiana Derby: Will pace make the race?

By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers Off

The Fair Grounds spur of the Kentucky Derby trail draws to a close with the Louisiana Derby (G2) on Saturday, March 23. The race covers 1 3/16 miles, the longest of any Kentucky Derby points race in the United States, and the rewards are big: a $1 million purse, and 100-50-25-15-10 Road to the Kentucky Derby points for the top five finishers. This means a guaranteed spot in the Kentucky Derby for the winner, a likely slot for the second-place finisher, and a nudge up the standings for the next three horses across the wire.

The Louisiana Derby is the last of four points races during the Fair Grounds meet. The Gun Runner, the newest race in the series, began it in December. It was followed by the two traditional local lead-ins for the race, the Lecomte (G3) in January and the Risen Star (G2) in February. The star of this sequence has been Track Phantom, who won the Gun Runner and the Lecomte before falling just short in the Risen Star. Track Phantom leads the Louisiana Derby, while Sierra Leone does not return to New Orleans this weekend.

Only two Louisiana Derby winners have won the Kentucky Derby: Louisiana legend Black Gold in 1924 and Lil E. Tee in 1992. More recently, Louisiana Derby's fourth-place finisher Country House (2019), took the roses with him, and sixth place Mandaloun (2021) was also placed first in the Kentucky Derby. Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter (2022) ran second in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness as the favorite and went on to win the Travers (G1) and champion 3-year-old honors.

Saturday, March 23 - Fair Grounds

Race 12: Louisiana Derby (G2), three-year-olds, one and three sixteenths miles on the dirt, post time 5:42pm CST

The pace setup for the Louisiana Derby is an interesting one. There isn’t a complete lack of speed, but there is less than one might expect for a 12-horse field, as well.

Track Phantom has a good chance of proving the speed of the speed and has shown some ability to battle early and go on, though he is mired on the far outside. That could lead to some serious ground loss, and that concern is exacerbated by the fact that he finished the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star – where he also drew wide – as if he still has some distance questions to answer in this 1 3/16-mile test. It would be no surprise to see this Steve Asmussen-Joel Rosario production run well, but the price will be too short to love him on top.

As long as Antiquarian can avoid trip trouble early, given his relative inside draw, Track Phantom’s parking-lot post is Antiquarian’s gain. He did not lead at the first call in either of his races, but he showed enough pace to be very close to the leader. He may be fast enough to wrest the lead outright under regular rider John Velazquez, and even if someone else guns it, he should be involved from start to finish. Experience is the question as he has only faced maidens, but even that resume reveals some class. On debut, he was narrowly caught by legitimate Florida Derby (G1) prospect Conquest Warrior. Next out, he won by a length over Cornishman, who has already returned to win at the maiden special weight level. Trainer Todd Pletcher already has five wins in the Louisiana Derby, and Antiquarian is in the running to become his sixth at a nice price.

However, top honors go to Honor Marie. Though the Whit Beckman trainee finished only fifth in the Risen Star and never looked a winner, he was making up some ground late. It was reminiscent of his other sloppy-track start, a well-beaten allowance-level second at Churchill last year. His better efforts have come over a dry track, something he is likely to get on Saturday. Even though he is an off-pace type in a race where a fiery front end will not happen, his Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) win tells the tale. That day, he made an early run into a modest pace, putting himself in contention in time to win by open lengths. If sharp local rider Ben Curtis can work that kind of trip with him, it has every right to work again. Furthermore, his pedigree suggests he will love every step of the distance and perhaps even more.

Selections:

#7 Honor Marie (8-1)

#3 Antiquarian (12-1)

#12 Track Phantom (3-1)

Longshot: #9 Real Men Violin (20-1) has to bounce back from a flat eighth in the Risen Star, but trainer Ken McPeek tends to have horses much sharper coming second off the lay. His form at age two suggests that he can be closer to the early pace than he was in the Risen Star and the one other time Corey Lanerie took the reins, that is exactly how he rode Real Men Violin. Add to it the fact that his pedigree has some upside for the stretch out in distance, and there are enough positives to include Real Men Violin as the price horse for exotic wagers in the Louisiana Derby.

Handicaper's Corner: 2024 Whitmore Stakes (G3)

 Speed wins the Whitmore Stakes

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Member

Oaklawn Park is on the top of my list of the tracks I like to visit. The city of Hot Springs oozes with Americana. It has the feel of a “blue-collar-Saratoga” with great downtown restaurants and mineral baths. If you like to camp—RV, Tent, or cabin—the KOA outside of Hot Springs welcomes horseplayers with free round-trip transportation to the track.

The fans take the “best in show” prize. Coming from surrounding states, they bring that rural, farming feel and wonderful southern hospitality. Horse racing pleasures a full range of fans, save those who only like turf racing. Oaklawn does not have a grass course.

The weather in Hot Springs for Saturday offers 69 degrees with around 6% chance of rain. Track should be “Oaklawn fast.” Some handicappers have even suggested that the track slopes down from the top of the stretch to the finish line. Although this has never been corroborated.

Let’s look at the field.

 

 

1.   Osbourne (Tapiture) has a bad post for a horse that does best running from behind. Although speed should dominate the field, he has too much to do from the one hole. Pass

2.   Tejano Twist (Practical Joke) has some speed but will likely let the others dual it out, hoping to run past them at the wire. Hampered by post position. The 6-furlong race makes it hard for that scenario to work out for him. Is dangerous and should be in the money.

3.   Ryvit (Competitive Edge) with Keith Asmussen up for his Dad he, may be the most dangerous speed contender. Keith has a 3-for-4 when riding him. His experience in the grade three Amsterdam at Saratoga and a grade two win at Pimlico should help. Second off, a layoff for Dad will not hurt. Likely to make it 4-for-5 if he doesn’t burn out. Maybe wire-to-wire?

4.   Surveillance (Constitution) has a comfort style of following the pack until it is time to run for the wire. Working OK. Has shown he can handle a grade three sprint event. Maybe a little too slow for these. Breeding is nice. Could be in the money.

5.   Ninja Warrior (Speightstown) keeps hot jockey Torres with an Oaklawn win percentage of 19% at Oaklawn. The horse likes Oaklawn, as well, with a 4 wins out of seven starts here. Good early speed, but may get caught up in a speed dual. Doesn’t look like a winning candidate, but not shocked if in exotic bets.

6.   Jaxon Traveler (Munnings) keeps Flavin Pratt over Rosario, who is not racing in the race. He has experience at the grade three level. Working Ok. Second best of Asmussen’s entries may try to press pace so his other horse has a better chance to be there. Pass.

7.   Cowan (Kantharos) claimed last out at Aqueduct and returns to grade three company at which he did his job. Hasn’t seen the winner’s circle since last October. Gets weight advantage. Gets new jockey, which may help. Heavy lift for this one, but anything is possible.

 

Summary

Given Oaklawn Park track which can offer a bias to speed, winning from off the pace will be difficult with the exception of a perfect ride and a little luck.

Three horses should be vying for the lead down the backside. If the pace is fair, the winner will come from this group or a well-timed moved from the second rung of horses. Closers will be trying.

Here is how I think they will finish:

3. Ryvit  (2-1)

4. Surveillance (6-1)

2.  Tejano Twist (9-5)

7. Cowan (10-1)

 

Handigamble ($100)

$40  Win  #3 =$40               

$2 Tri Box #3, #4, #2 and #7 = $48

$2 Tri Key         #3 with #4,#2,#7 with #4, #2, #7 = $12

Good luck but keep the day job.