Handicapper's Corner: Finding Value in the 2024 Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2)

 Finding Value in the Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2)

By:  John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

South Florida and a cool weather day for this Pegasus prep race, with nine going 1 1/8 miles on the lawn. 

Should be a lot of fun, and there might be some real value in the betting with multiple entries from Saffie Joseph, Jr. and Todd Pletcher. 

Featured as race 10 of 11, post time is 4:52 PM ET.  Let's review the field.

#1 Cash Equity – Joseph/Zayas - He's been trying graded company on the Kentucky circuit in his last three outings without success. Was a failed favorite in the River City at Churchill last out. Shows declining form has not had a trip on this lawn, but changes jockeys to a 19% turf winning jockey. Underneath play.

#2 Grand Sonata  - Pletcher/Gaffalione  - Has raced at the highest levels and had some success, winning over $2M lifetime. He's won two of three at Gulfstream but only one at the distance. The public hasn't put a lot of money into him at the betting windows, but still he fits in this field. Gaffalione is quite adept at putting his mounts in the right place to be ITM. The connections are right, the odds are right and I expect he'll be in the top three.

#3 Saratoga Flash  - Joseph/Husbands  - He's struggled against graded/stakes company, but he has done well at Gulfstream with two wins and three seconds out of seven races; however, never won at the distance. They might be the rabbit for this race. Bottom of trifectas or superfectas.

#4 Major Dude – Pletcher/Ortiz, I Jr. – The connections are telling. This stalker midpack closer struggled in the Four Star Dave when stuck in traffic but has won two of his last three and does well at Gulfstream. He's been off since early October and had some nice works coming into this race with two bullets under his belt. Ortiz is on fire and I expect that to remain the same for the meet. This is my top pick, and at 5-1 he is a bargain.

#5 Win for the Money  - Casse/Davis  - This guy won the Woodbine Mile handily and  might have pushed the pace too hard in the BC Mile, finishing last of ten. He shows good form in his races prior to the last, so we'll scratch his last effort. Dylan Davis gets the mount and is coming off a great season up North. The bullet work on December 4^th on the turf is impressive, and he likes Gulfstream. I expect Casse has him ready. My only concern is he's a miler and doesn't go the distance. Bottom of exotics.

#6 Lorenz – Joseph/Van Dyke – When we look through the PPs he stands out as not having enough class. His last two wins with Van Dyke up were for $75K. Both were come from behind late closing wins. That being said, he really likes to be ITM in his last seven races. A conundrum? Or is he a horse moving up with talent? The form is there, Van Dyke is a patient jockey and I'd like to see Lorenz get a piece. Longshot to play in the mix.

#7 Siege of Boston  - Toner/Ruiz – The public loves to throw money at this guy without a lot of winnings. He's had some nice works coming into the race, and Toner is a fine grass trainer but his record says he won't finish well. Rosario put him on the lead last time out in the Knickerbocker, but he got tired in the lane and finished fifth. Ruiz is familiar with Boston, but does the horse have the turn of foot to get there? He's a toss for me.

#8 Fort Washington –McGaughey/Velasquez  - Always liked this horse at the lower levels. The connections are super, steady works at Payson Park. Was fourth by two in the Knickerbocker. Third in the Arty Schiller and had a big win in the Monmouth Stakes at 35-1. As has been seen many times before, Johnny V can show up and punish others. I see him as a worthy longshot ITM.

#9 Emmanuel – Maker/Castellano  - Since he's moved to Maker's barn he has lost some form against graded company. In his favor, he has won two for two at Gulfstream under Pletcher, and he has seen several these other horses in his travels. I just don't have confidence in him, given his recent form. Toss.

Handigambling…you folks pick the money you want to wager

Trifecta – 4 with 2, 6, 8 with All

Exacta Box – 2, 4, 6, 8      Or All with 6 & 8 and a WS bet on 6 & 8

WPS on 6 

Dutch WPS on 8 against the 6

Handicapper's Corner: Game on in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2)

Game on in the Los Alamitos Futurity 

By Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off

On Saturday, West Coast juveniles take the spotlight in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). The 1 1/16-mile race offers a purse of $200,000 as well as 10-5-3-2-1 Road to the Kentucky Derby points to its top five qualifying finishers. Though the race drew a field of only five, unlike in the last few years, all of the runners are eligible for Kentucky Derby points since Bob Baffert can enter horses in the Run for the Roses again.

This race is the successor to the Hollywood Futurity, which was moved to Los Alamitos after Hollywood Park closed. Though only one horse has won both this race and the Kentucky Derby, 1997 winner Real Quiet, six starters in this race have gone on to win the Run for the Roses. However, that hasn’t happened since 2005 when Giacomo, who had finished second at Hollywood the year before, blew up the Kentucky Derby tote.

However, that does not mean recent winners of this race haven’t shined in other major races. Shared Belief (2013) emerged as one of the best horses in his class at ages two, three, and four. Into Mischief (2007), Pioneerof the Nile (2008), and Violence (2012) have gone on to be important stallions. And 2022 winner, Practical Move, went on to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1) the following year.

Carded as Race 8 of 9, post time for the Los Alamitos Futurity is 3:54 PM, PT

The horse to beat in the 2024 Los Alamitos Futurity is Gaming. Most recently second behind Citizen Bull in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he is the leader of the three-strong Bob Baffert brigade in this race. Though he is drawn on the fence, it is only a field of five, and he won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) from the two-hole in a field of seven this summer. His running style is excellent for this race and field size as well: he has sharp yet tactical speed, giving him the options to either wire the field or stalk and pounce if stablemates Getaway Car or Mellencamp really punch down the accelerator.

The horse with the most upside to topple the heavy favorite is Journalism, a lightly-raced runner for Michael McCarthy. He has just two starts and was defeated by a pair, including Mellencamp on debut, but that was a six-furlong sprint at Santa Anita. He stretched to a two-turn mile at Del Mar for his second start, rallied from midfield, and won by 2 ½ lengths over fellow Los Alamitos Futurity entrant Rank. He’ll need to stay as close as possible given the five-horse field size or hope that the Baffert Brigade gets locked into some kind of pace battle. But, the fact that he woke up trying two turns for the first time is a positive, and that tracks nicely with the fact that he is by Curlin out of the graded-quality two-turn dirt mare Mopotism, a daughter of Uncle Mo.

Getaway Car is the only other winner in the field. He has tables to turn on Gaming, who beat him head-to-head in both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Del Mar Futurity. He also has yet to prove that he can win a race without making the top from the start. However, without Citizen Bull in the mix and drawn outside of the other two Baffert trainees, Getaway Car may just bounce out to the lead under Juan Hernandez and play a game of catch-me-if-you-can. If that happens, especially if speed is playing well on Saturday, there is hope for Getaway Car to spring the minor upset.

Selections:

#1 Gaming (2-5)

#5 Journalism (6-1)

#3 Getaway Car (3-1)

Handicapper's Corner: It’s Post Time for the 2024 Cigar Mile (GII)

It's Post Time for the 2024 Cigar Mile

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan

Anyone who saw Cigar run would remember it and tear up retelling the story of the race. He won 16 races straight until he was defeated in the Pacific Classic in 1996 by Dare and Go. He won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 1995 and the NYRA Mile in 1994, which now carries his name. 

 

 

The Cigar Mile is a grade two event of handicap weight conditions. Eleven horses will run the mile on the dirt for a purse of $500,000. The weather at Aqueduct will be beautiful, with the temperature around 40 degrees at the 3:35 Post Time. 

Let’s look at the field.

 

1.Book’em Danno (Bucchero) is a seasoned 7-furlong runner winning the Woody Stephens (GI) in June at Saratoga. Working bullets. In the money for both tries at Aqueduct. Keeps Irad Ortiz. Drops weight off the last 8 races. One of three 3-year-olds taking on older horses. Should be strategically placed for a stretch run. Mile distance concern.

2.Nelson Avenue (Into Mischief) One of four challenging for the lead. Stepping up to grade two company. Retains hot NY-based jockey Dylan Davis. Likes mile distance. Others faster.

3. Repo Rocks (Tapiture) Another speedster. Working bullets. Hasn’t regained his 2023 form. Mile distance a plus.

4. Vinsanity (Tapiture) Another 3-year-old getting weight advantage; twelve pounds under Mullikin and Post Time. Slower than most of the field. Gets a new jockey for a better fit.

5. Mullikin (Violence) can run on the lead but closed for third in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Keeps top jockey, Flavien Prat. Owns the top speed figure. High weight at 124 may be a problem. One-for-one at Aqueduct. May like it shorter.

6.Law Professor (Constitution) Won prep going long at Aqueduct. May like the early pace for position, but should be doing his best work late. Performed better at longer distances. Asking a lot.

7. Locked (Gun Runner) Second start as a 3-year-old. Coming off an eleven-month rest after placing third in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Fierceness and Muth. Retains Johnny Velazquez. Hard to know how he will perform in this race. Worth a play.

8. Pipeline (Speightstown) Working bullets. Gets a new jockey. Ran a 7-furlong race once, finishing fourth in the Forego (GI) at Saratoga in 2023. Distance OK. If the early pace is very fast, he may be moving down the lane for a piece.

9. Senor Buscador (Mineshaft) Woking bullets. Hasn’t won since February. Top money winner at $12.9 million. Knows how to win the big races. Fast enough to be competitive. Better at longer distances. Which Senor B will show up?

10. Coastal Mission (Great Notion) Solid closer who likes this distance. Speed figures are questionable. He’s at the right level with his regular jockey up. He won the Forty Niner (G3) at Aqueduct by a length and gave Millikin a scare in  July at Aqueduct in 7-furlong race. Should be competitive.

11. Post Time (Frosted) Three wins at 7 furlongs out of 4 tries, but he’s better at a mile and keeps his regular jockey. Carries the high weight for the Cigar Mile. He’s won and placed at Aqueduct and should be running late.

Analysis

This a very tough race to Handicap. Four horses will likely contest the pace but will not win. The fast pace will favor a closer. The 3-year-olds will be disadvantaged, although one could do well. Senor Buscador has a great resume but needs to show better recent form. That leaves three with a greater chance to win---Mullikin, Coastal Mission and Post Time.

Here is how I think they will finish:

11. Post Time  (7-2)

5.   Mullikin (3-1)

10. Coastal Mission (12-1)

7.   Locked (9-2)

Handigamble:

$20 to win and place on Post Time #11--  $40

$2 Exacta Box:  #5,#10, #11----- $12

$2 Trifecta Box:  # 5,#7, #10, #11  ---$48