Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Commonwealth Turf (G3)

 Winning the Commonwealth Turf Stakes with a $100 Bet

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Hello ThoroFan racing friends, our destination this week is Churchill Downs for the Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf for three-year-olds going one mile and one-sixteenth over the grass course.

This year’s edition is the 19^th running of the race and the $300,000 event has attracted a field of nine runners.

 

 Here is how I see it.

1^st Evade – French-bred runner made his U.S. debut going six-and-half furlongs in G1 at Kentucky Downs, where he finished fourth by less than three lengths, beating more than half the field. In his last start at Keeneland, he again finished a close fourth. An improving horse who gets a little more real estate which should help.

2^nd - Herchee – Lightly-raced gelding has landed in the money in all four grass starts over at four different tracks. Last race, he stepped up into the G3 Bryan Station Stakes at Keeneland where he led briefly into the stretch, dug in gamely but got caught by an outside challenger, then lost the place spot late.

3^rd - Lagynos – Three races back, he was second beaten a neck in the G2 Hall of Fame at Saratoga. In his last two starts, he lagged behind a slow pace at Kentucky Downs, then caught a swift pace at Keeneland where he tried to rally around the far turn but got caught in traffic before finally getting clear and running on willingly. A smoother trip here could be all he needs.

LS – My Boy Prince - This year’s King’s Plate runner-up has plenty of stake’s experience on turf (as well as synthetic). Last out at Keeneland, he set a blazing pace which eventually caught up with him as he coughed up a comfortable three-length lead and faded to finish ninth. In his prior run in the G1 Woodbine Mile, he was forced out extremely wide and ended up in sixth place. However, he was extremely good in his grass efforts last season, including a third place showing in the G1 B.C. Juvenile Turf. Which version shows up on Saturday remains a mystery, but he has shown enough in his overall record that he can contend on his best day.

Wagering:

With our $100 mythical ThoroFan bucks, we will wager as follows:

$40 win on Evade

$20 Exacta Evade over Lagynos

$15 Exacta Box Evade with Herchee ($30 Total)

$ 5 Exacta Box Evade with My Boy Prince ($10 total)

Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Bob Hope Stakes (G2)

 Is McKinzie Street on the road to Bob Hope Stakes victory?

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

At beautiful Del Mar Racetrack this weekend, we have a small but competitive field of 2-year-olds racing over 7 furlongs on the dirt in the $100,000 Grade 2 Bob Hope Stakes.

First run in 1981, notable winners include  2013 Champion 2-Year-Old Colt Shared Belief, plus Grade 1 winners Afternoon Deelites, Mastery, and Mucho Gusto.

 

Bob Baffert has won seven of the last nine editions of the Bob Hope, including the last three.

The Bob Hope Stakes is featured as race 8 of 9 on Sunday’s card, with a 4:00 PM PT post time.

Here is who we like:

The big favorite is McKinzie Street, at 2-1 morning line odds. He is the most accomplished in this field with two Grade 1 races already run including a second in the Del Mar Futurity, beating Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Citizen Bull. The distance will be no problem as he ran 1 1/16 last time out in the Grade 1 American Pharoah, finishing third in a race won by Citizen Bull. On paper, this is the fastest horse in the field. Pace-wise, he should run mid-pack and has good late pace.

Dr Ruben M (20-1), trained by Doug O’Neil, is interesting. He comes off a Maiden win last time out at Santa Anita at 1 mile, where he won from gate to wire. He is taking a big step up in class off the last Maiden win, but He showed a nice burst of speed around the last turn last time out. I also like the turn back in distance from a mile to 7 furlongs.

Kalea Bay (9-5), trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, also comes off a Maiden win last time out, winning at 6 furlongs at Santa Anita. Before that, he ran twice at Delmar, finishing second and third, respectively, at 6 and 5.5 furlongs. Kalea Bay ran very nice fractions in the Santa Anita race, which will complement him as he races one furlong longer on Sunday. I expect Kalea Bay to be up front early, most likely behind the pacesetter Maximus. He has done nothing wrong in his short racing career, with 4 wins and a second out of 5 starts. Kalea Bay has plenty of speed, and I expect Florent Geroux to put him on the lead immediately. Problem is, with four or five other speed horses in this race, will Kalea Bay be there at the end? He enters this race coming off an impressive start to finish 1st in the West Virginia Derby.

Bullard (8-5), another Baffert horse, has only race once, winning first time out at Del Mar over 6 Furlongs, rallying late to win the race. His sire is Gun Runner, whose babies are winning on racetracks all over North America. He has not raced since his sole race back on Labor Day Weekend, but he had a sharp workout on November ninth at 5 furlongs.

Baffert’s third horse in the race is unraced, Madaket Road (10-1), but he looks like a fast horse sired by Quality Road. It would not shock me if he wins first time out, but we never like to be first-timers in a graded stakes race. Over time, that betting strategy rarely works.

Analysis

This will be an interesting race pace wise. It looks to be pretty fast with good early pace. We think Maximus sets the pace with Dr. Ruben M.  with Bullard and Kalea Bay right with him.

McKinzie Street should be sitting mid-pack waiting on the jockey’s decision to move at the final turn.

We will hope to kit a Trifecta, boxing our four highlighted horses. I think McKinsie Street's class will prevail, but maybe Dr. Ruben M. at 20-1 can grab second or third to juice up the payouts.  

As always, watch the Horses in the Paddock and the odds as Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.

Handigambling $100 Budget

$50 win McKinzie Street.

$2 Trifecta Box: Mckinzie Street. Dr Ruben M. Bullar, Kalea Bay (total bet $48)

$2 place: Dr. Ruben M.

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Red Smith Stakes (G2)

 Winning Strategies for the Red Smith Stakes

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

My hangover from last weekend’s Breeder’s Cup has finally dissipated, and it’s time to saddle back up for a nice distance turf stake at Aqueduct. The weather has been uncharacteristically dry in Queens this fall leaving a firm course thirsty for rain.

Nine are facing the starter in the $300,000 Grade 2 Red Smith Stakes, including the winner and two others from last year’s renewal. Some of the others entered look like they’ve done so because the opportunities on NY turf are waning. After all, it is November, and it will get cold…I think. But for $300k, why not take a shot?

Carded as race 9 of 10, the 1 3/8 mile Red Smith has a 3:40 PM ET post time. The turf is expected to be firm.

Let’s take a look at the field:

 

1.   Curbstone (T. Morley; J.R. Velazquez 30-1)   An allowance winner on the dirt back in February is winless on the turf. However, he did run 2^nd down at Far Hills in his last. He’d have to improve immensely off of that to contend.   TOSS

2.   Integration (C. McGaughey III; F. Prat 2-1)  A G2 winner over this course has always hinted at top-level ability. Shug has given this 4-year-old colt a steady diet of G1 and G2 assignments all year (save his Arlington Million prep) and he has performed admirably but never won. Integration has 3 triple-digit Beyers on his sheet, and this is a clear class drop.   WIN CONTENDER

3.   Pioneering Spirit (R Dutrow; M. Franco 10-1) Dick Dutrow plopped down $62.5k for this 5yo gelding in his last start. This cagey trainer did so for a reason. After all, he won half his races last year for Linda Rice. But that form seems gone, as he is winless in his last 10 starts. I’m not sure he is G3 quality at the moment. He’s a reach at best for me. TOSS

4.   City Man (C. Clement; J. Rosario 10-1) City Man comes into this event starting only 4 times this year, all in State Bred stakes much shorter than today’s distance. A mile and an eighth seems his limit, but it’s a big purse, and he is out of conditions.   It looks like Clement is throwing a Hail Mary here, and a minor placing is his ceiling. TOSS

5.   Limited Liability (C. McGaughey III; L. Dettori 5-1) These long-distance turf events are a sweet spot for this 5yo gelding. He was 6^th in last year’s renewal but only beaten just under 3 lengths when given a lot to do late. This year, he seems more into his races and ran a lifetime Beyer in his last race. Perhaps adding the blinkers 4 back has helped. WIN CONTENDER

6.   Adhamo (C. Brown; I. Ortiz Jr. 8-1) Like Integration, this new gelding has been competing in graded races of late. He never seems to get there, however, at least since his win in July of ’22. But it’s Chad & Irad.  If you watch any turf racing in NY, you know that just may be enough. USE UNDERNEATH

7.   Daunt (R. Robaudo; JJ Castellano 20-1)  Daunt has yet to clear his N2X condition, only runs on the NY circuit and is looking for a payday. He ran seventh in last year’s edition of this race and fourth the year before. Tall order. TOSS

8.   Master Piece (Chi) (R. Dutrow; J. Lezcano 5-2)  Two for Two over Aqueduct’s turf.  A solid G2 runner. Seems to try hard and has earned almost a cool $ 1 million for his owners. He’d be no surprise at all. After all, he won this race last year at almost 11 to 1. But one won’t get those odds on Saturday. I get the feeling he struggles to polish off his races of late. Perhaps his 8 years on this Earth are catching up with him. WIN CONTENDER

9.   Rebel Red (GB) (C. DeVaux; J. Ortiz 8-1) This Frankel (GB) colt seems progressive, having cleared a few allowance conditions this year running some solid figures.    That said, his numbers are a cut below some of his rivals and he will need to improve those against much tougher company. Cherie seems to know how to do just that with a good horse, and the price may be right. WIN CONTENDER

SUMMARY:    

It looks like the public will bet on both Integration and Master Piece. Each have the speed figures and resume to pick off this race, and neither would be a surprise.   Of the two, Integration may have some more upside since he is a 4-year-old, whereas the 8-year-old Master Piece has shown us what he has. 

The other two contenders are Limited Liability and Rebel Red. I like how the former has gotten into his races with blinkers and ran a big figure in his last. I also like how the latter, Rebel Red, is progressing and even displayed a major closing kick in his last. I think they will be the third and fourth choices and perhaps the fifth in this race. I like that.

 I’ll give an honorable mention to Adhamo on the old “Chad & Irad” angle. But that’s it.

THE BET:  (based on $100 wagered)

$60 Win Rebel Red  ( I think he will be the longer of he and Limited Liability)

$12 exacta Box Rebel Red/Limited Liability

$8 exacta Reble Red/Integration & Limited Liability