Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Louisiana Derby (G2)

 Louisiana Derby - The 'Center' of it All

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Following the conclusion of Mardi Gras on Fat Tuesday down in New Orleans back on March 1, the next big attraction has now arrived in town, and it’s happening this Saturday with the 109^th Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds, which is celebrating its 150^th anniversary season.

The Grade 2 race, which features a rich purse of $1 million, is an important Kentucky Derby prep worth 100-40-20-10 points to the top four finishers and is the final local prep on the Kentucky Derby trail.

The Louisiana Derby occupies a key strategic position six weeks out from the Kentucky Derby. This is very important for a couple of reasons: 1) It gives horses the option of using the race as a final prep or as a next to last prep. With a points system now controlling who gets into the Kentucky Derby and who doesn’t, trainers can give their horses who may be desperate for points or horses appearing late on the scene that still need points one final chance to get in another prep in between, if they should need it. 2) In 2020, the distance of the Louisiana Derby was increased from 1 1/8 miles to 1 3/16 miles, a sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby, making it the longest Derby prep and gives horses an excellent opportunity to test their stamina before the first Saturday in May.

Overall, eight stakes’ races, four graded, are on the race card and aside from the Louisiana Derby itself, the other gem of the day is the G2 Fairgrounds Oaks for three-year-old fillies also looking for points to advance to the Kentucky Oaks.

The Louisiana Derby drew a field of nine colts and has a scheduled post time of 5:44 p.m. local time. Let’s take a brief look at the entrants from the rail out.

 

1 - Silent Power – Gerard Melancon/Scott Greiner – 50-1 - After winning and running second in his first two starts as a juvenile last summer at Prairie Meadows, he’s disappointed in six subsequent races.

2 - Zozos – Florent Geroux/Brad Cox – 8-1 - Registered a blowout 10 1/2-length allowance score at Oaklawn Park last race, his second victory in two starts. Still, a bit of an unknown as he steps into stakes company for the first time.

3 - Call Me Midnight – James Graham/Keith Desormeaux – 6-1 – Took five tries to break his maiden, then finished seventh in G2 Kentucky Jockey Club to close out his juvenile season. A quick pace in the Lecomte gave him the kick he needed to rally to get up by a head over Epicenter in his three-year-old debut. However, the expected pace scenario may work against his deep closing style.

4 - Curly Trail – Colby Hernandez/Dallas Stewart – 30-1 – Longshot runner comes into his graded stakes debut off a maiden score at Oaklawn last month. This level of competition is a whole new world.

5 - Kapuna – Reylu Guiterrez/Brett Calhoun – 8-1 – Scored an impressive maiden win at Oaklawn back in January. Finished second last time out in an entry-level allowance race at Fairgrounds. He’s an improving colt who now gets tested in stakes company

6 - Epicenter – Joel Rosario/Steve Asmussen – 7-5 – Three wins and a second in his last four races and that second-place finish was when he lost by a head in the Lecomte after leading nearly the entire race. Easily cruised to victory in the Risen Star to become one of the leading Derby contenders.

7 - Pioneer of Medina – Tyler Gaffalione/Pletcher – 5-1 – In his 3-year-old bow, he went wire-to-wire in an entry-level allowance affair at Fairgrounds, but when upped in class for the G2 Risen Star, he stalked until the top of the lane and tried to keep up but was passed late and finished fourth.

8 - Galt – Junior Alvarado/Bill Mott – 8-1 – Involved in a scary mishap in F.O.Y. where he fell after a spill on the second turn, escaping injury. Two races back, he gave up the lead in the Holy Bull, but that’s probably not his preferred run style. He seems best with a target in front of him.

9 - Rattle N Roll – Brian Hernandez/Ken McPeek – 6-1 – After his maiden win, he stepped up to the top level with a dominating victory in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity. His showing in the G2 Fountain of Youth three weeks ago was non-descript, but he made have needed the race to knock off the cobwebs after being away since October. He should be fitter now.

 

ANALYSIS

From a pace standpoint, this race is tailor-made for Epicenter. With his early speed, he should be quick out of the gate and get over to secure the rail for a ground-saving trip like he had in the Risen Star. The only horse with any amount of early foot to challenge is Pioneer of Medina. Jockey Tyler Gafflione has a decision to make. Does he go after Epicenter early and apply pressure, or does he copy his Risen Star performance and stalk, allowing his rival once again to dictate the pace?

If Pioneer of Medina chooses the former, Epicenter has proven he can withstand early pressure and still pull away to win. If he chooses the latter, then Epicenter should be cruising again to victory. In either scenario, the battle will be for the place and show spots.

Rattle And Roll had some traffic issues at the top of the stretch in the F.O.Y., where the short Gulfstream stretch hindered this talented horse from showcasing his biggest attribute, which is an explosive kick. With a race now under his belt, a sizzling five-furlong work last week, and the long Fairgrounds stretch to work with; a more representative showing should now be forthcoming. Not sure if it all adds up to catching Epicenter, but it’s possible. Remember, this horse is a Grade 1 winner who ran down Classic Causeway last fall, and his winning Bris speed figure from that event is second-best in the field.

Galt improved his speed figures in each start prior to the F.O.Y., where he was hampered by an outside post and wide trip to the second turn prior to the spill and had no chance to avoid his fallen stablemate. Before the mishap, he was rallying in tandem with O Captain, who finished third.

Zozos absolutely trashed an allowance field last race, and although he gets a stern class test here, any lightly-raced three-year-old who scores by double digits and could be any kind gets my attention.

 

Selections

1 - Epicenter

2 - Rattle and Roll

3 – Galt

4 – Zozos

 

Wagering

Here is how I’ll spend my mythical ThoroFan $100 allotment

$15 Exacta box Epicenter/Rattle N Roll (Cost $30)

$5 Exactas Epicenter/Galt and Zozos (Cost $10)

$2 Trifecta wheel

Epicenter in the win slot over the other three in the second and third slots adding in Call Me Midnight and Pioneer of Medina to the show slot (Cost $24)

$1 superfecta wheel

Epicenter in the win slot with the other three in the second, third and fourth slots, adding in Call Me Midnight and Pioneer of Medina to third and fourth. (Cost $36)   

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!!

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2022 Whitmore Stakes (G3)

 Older Sprinters seeking first graded win in Whitmore Stakes

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

Formerly known as the Hot Springs Handicap, The $200,000 Grade 3 Whitmore Stakes was renamed in 2021 in honor the gelding who captured the race for four straight years, from 2017 to 2020. 

 

 With careful handling by trainer Ron Moquett, Whitmore raced at the highest levels for six years. However, the apex of his career came in the 2020 Breeders' Cup Sprint earning him year-end honors as Champion Sprinter.

Whitmore retired as an 8-year-old after making 43 starts and earning $4,502,350.

This year's Whitmore Stakes attracted nine older horses who will sprint six furlongs. Let's review the field.

 

Greeley and Ben (9-2) compiled a nine-race win streak last year and continued his winning ways this year with a trio of victories. In his previous start, the  Karl Broberg trainee bested Starter Allowance company by 1 3/4-lengths here, finishing up in 1:90.60. This is Greeley and Ben's first foray into graded competition; however, the 8-year-old gelding should be up to the task. Win contender.

A lightly raced 4-year-old with only seven career starts under his girth, Tulane Tryst (9-2) has won his last two starts by open lengths, including an impressive score against Allowance Optional Claiming class runners by 7 1/4-lengths at the Fairgrounds, getting six furlongs in 1:09.77. The  Cherie DeVaux trainee was off the board in his only stakes try in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens last year. However, he meets a softer group here and fired a recent four-furlong bullet work. Win contender.

Bob's Edge (5-2) has hit the board in all five starts at Oaklawn, including a 2 3/4-victory in the King Cotton Stakes in January. The knock against him is that he's never strung together back-to-back wins, and a third-place finish generally follows each victory. Additionally, he hit a career-best 100 speed rating in his last start. So I don't see a form reversal here. Exotics.

Hollis (3-1) has won three of his four starts at Oaklawn. He shook the rust off in the King Cotton Stakes, finishing a distant fifth behind Bob's Edge in his yearly debut, and returned to best Starter Allowance class runners by 4 1/4-lengths, handily beating runner-up No Shirt No Shoes. However, Hollis' weakness is a class issue. He's hit or miss at the listed stakes level, and his last stakes victory was over a year ago. Additionally, the John Ortiz trainee has a good/bad race cycle over the last year. Exotics.

Heart Rhythm (15-1) has hit the board in 13 of 15 career starts in the Allowance Optional Claiming ranks. He won and placed in both starts this year at Oaklawn, giving trainer Trisha Vance Duncan her first career victory. Duncan is the daughter David Vance, a 4-time Oaklawn leading trainer. Although his overall Brisnet speed ratings fit this group, Heart Rhythm is a need-the-lead type, and his late-pace figures are poor. Maybe he can hang on for a lower exotics placing.  

Kneedeepinsnow (8-1) is hit or miss against Allowance Optional Claiming types. In January, the Mike Maker trainee won his 2022 debut here but was a one-paced fourth against Greeley and Ben in the Stonerside Sprint at Sam Houston in his last start. Kneedeepinsnow had a little break in February and returned to the work tab March 7. He has run well off the layoff in the past, but the wins are now few and far between for this 6-year-old. Pass.

Royal Daaher (10-1) won his 2022 debut here by 1 1/4-lengths, beating Atoka and earning a lifetime best Brisnet speed rating in the process. The Wane Lukas trainee has hit the board in eight of 12 starts at Oaklawn in the Allowance Optional Claiming ranks; However, the 6-year-old has never strung together back-to-back wins, and he may regress off the 100 speed rating. Pass.

No Shirt No Shoes (12-1) has won two of eight attempts at Oaklawn. Allowance Optional Claiming class 5-year-old jumps into graded company after a 4 1/2-length loss to Hollis. Previously, the Doug Anderson trainee has regressed in his second start off the layoff. Pass.

 

Analysis

Greely and Ben doesn't need the lead, but he'll be close to the pace, along with Hollis, Heart Rhythm, and No Shirt No Shoes. Bob's Edge does his best work from the back of the pack. Tulane Twist will make a late run.

I'll go with age and experience over youth and optimism.

3. Greely and Ben (9-2)

7. Tulane Tryst (9-2)

2. Bob's Edge (5-2)

8. Heart Rhythm (15-1)