Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2)

 12 on the turf in Ft. Lauderdale Stakes

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan

Looks like it will be a lovely day for racing in South Florida with a  24% chance of rain later in the day.

Should they take it off the turf it will be run on the new Tapeta course.

 

 

 

 

There are 12 entries and an also eligible for this race.  I will only write about the top 6 contenders as I see them in the field.

 

 

#2 L'Imperator - Brown/Velasquez- won last out going longer against #1 Doswell and he's 5 for 9 all on turf. He get 99 speed at this distance and is a closing type runner. The connections and the record make him my number one pick. 

 

#8 Analyze It - Brown/Hernandez - he appears to be the speed of the speed in this test and I expect Brown will send him if for no other reason than to set up L'Imperator for a kill. He has been going 100 miles a mile at a time but in the past he can get 100 when he goes longer. ITM play.

 

#12 Space Traveller - Walsh/Gaffalione - Stalwart animal but gets an outside post at at Gulfstream that is not kind to most runners. He looks best going longer and can get 100 on a good day. Another ITM play.

 

#1 Doswell - Tagg/Alvarado - Hard not to see this one being in play as he has competed with some tough characters in the past. 

 

From here it's kinda what you like to see in a horse's performance lines and the expectation of the jockey making the right move to get ITM.

 

#11 Atone - Maker/Jaramillo  - Maker brings two horses to the race and for me this is the better choice. He can front run or be tactical and might pick up some pieces judging by the pace.Another thing to note is if the race goes to the Tapeta he is the one of two in the race who has decent speed on the All Weather.

 

#6 Renaissance Frolic - Joseph/Gonzalez  - Scratch though his last performance at Kentucky Downs. This a horse that likes to be ITM a lot and he likes Gulfstream. Along with the fact that his jockey is very keen in these situations I think he has a chance to make an impact at 30 to 1.  

Handigambling

Here's how I see it for Handigambling I'll play a $2.50 trifecta

2 with 1, 6, 8, 11, 12    =  $ 50

From a practical standpoint that's enough spent on this race. You could make it a $0.50 wager and it will be $10

 

Good luck to everyone. 

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2)

Messier could streak to Los Alamitos Futurity victory

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

 

The $300,000 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) is one of the last 2-year-old prep races for the 2022 Kentucky Derby, and offers ten qualifying points to the winner. 

 

Bob Baffert has the double threat of Messier and Barossa, and is seeking his eighth straight and 14th overall win in the Los Alamitos Futurity.

The former Grade 1 Futurity has lost luster in recent years, seeing the number of entries dwindle from double digits a dozen years ago to the typical four to six-horse fields in recent years, plus a decline in status to a Grade 2.

Out of the six Futurity winners to make it Kentucky in the last decade, one Futurity winner (Dortmund, 20014) hit the board with a third place in the Derby.

A small field of five colts will contest 1 1/16-miles at Los Alamitos in race nine on Saturday.

 

Messier hopes to follow in the hoofprints of 2016 Los Alamitos winner Mastery, who captured the Bob Hope Stakes in his previous start.

Despite being fast enough to win sprints, the Baffert trainee's pedigree is full of classic stamina, from sire Empire Maker to  Messier's first four dams, Smart Strike, A.P. Indy, Seeking the Gold, and Halo. Additionally, his dam is a multiple-stakes winner, and his third dam is a Canadian champ. Win contender.

 

Slow Down Andy raced wide while pressing the pace in the restricted 13-horse Golden State Juvenile on Breeders' Cup Friday. Unfortunately, the Doug O'Neil trainee lost focus in the stretch while racing between horses, and got back on track late, to miss the victory by a half-length the more experienced multiple graded placed Finneus.

Nevertheless, it was an excellent effort for Slow Down Andy's second career start. Slow Down Andy's full brother Team Merchants is a stakes-winning turf miler and the pair claim a distant kinship to Bernardini through the distaff line. Win contender.

 

Barossa improved in his second start at Del Mar to finish a distant third, bested 5 1/4 lengths by Oviatt Class in a one-mile maiden event.

He won his next start over the less experienced Durante and then was tossed to the wolves in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where he was beaten 14 lengths by stablemate Corniche.

I don't think he's as good as stablemate Messier, but Barossa is also the only one in the field with experience at 1 1/16 miles. Exotics.

 

In October, Durante dueled with Barossa in a one-mile maiden event, and grudgingly gave way, beaten only a half-length.

Next time out at the same distance, the O'Neil trainee stumbled slightly at the start but quickly cleared the field and held on to win by a half-length.

Durante is a speedball with excellent gate speed, but he paddles with his right foreleg, runs with his head up and doesn't keep a straight path down the lane.

Despite having the pedigree to go longer, Durante is running on talent and is still putting things together. Unfortunately, the extra half-furlong will be his undoing. He doesn't know where he's going, but he's sticking with it. Lower exotics.

 

Olympic Legend's claim to fame is that he beat Messier in a maiden race in June at Laurel Park. However, the Luis Mendez trainee was well-beaten in his last two outings by a combined 28 lengths. Toss.

 

Analysis

The favorite has won or placed in nine of the last ten editions of the Los Alamitos Futurity, so there's a good chance that whichever Baffert horse is favored at post time will win. Yawn.

The typical Futurity sets up with the favorite pressing the pace, no more than two lengths back, before making their move in the stretch.

 

Both Messier and Barossa have this running style. I'm giving the nod to Messier, as he's the class of the field and is bred to improve with maturity.

Slow Down Andy showed a lot of heart, finishing second against state-breds on Breeders' Cup Friday. He lost focus in the stretch as the wall of noise from the crowd hit him, but Slow Down Andy recovered late. I think he learned a lot that day and should give a good accounting.

 

#3 Messier (1-2)

#5 Slow Down Andy (5-1)

#4 Barossa (5-1)

#2 Durante (9-2)

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Cigar Mile (G1)

The Incomparable, Invincible, Unbeatable Cigar (Mile)

By: Alex Sausville, Off the Turf Podcast

The Cigar Mile (G1) is known as one of the flagship races for the handicap division post Breeders’ Cup.   

What was formerly the NYRA Mile adopted the surname of one of the greatest horses to step onto the racetrack. A horse who transcended the racing game during his time by representing the United States in style by capturing the first ever rendition of the Dubai World Cup, on top of his many scintillating performances. 

Cigar had fans spanning the globe during his racing career, however my dad needed him to edge out Louis Quatorze for 2nd in the ‘96 Breeders’ Cup Classic, but even he loved Cigar. We honor this amazing horse with a race that has proved lots of thrills through its inception. It is not always the most star-studded affair being this late in the season, but it always provides a competitive race and this year is no exception.

 

My Analysis:

I hate to be looked at as someone who is jumping on the Runhappy bandwagon lately, but even with his slow start that has now picked up in recent times I think he has a very smart horse in Following Sea. 

This Spendthrift runner’s dominant win in the GII Vosburgh gets downgraded due to the size of the field around him, however there is little doubt in my mind that only a handful of horses in the country could have beaten him on that day as aired in the stretch. 

Following Sea is a strong one turn horse and was able to step out of his element in the GI Haskell to be 3rd(Placed 2nd) to Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie for his first stakes attempt. I was devastated with the traffic trouble he received at the Breeders’ Cup with a trip that if all went right could have seen him posed for a big upset on the day. I think this is the right field for him to face to get a Grade 1 to end the season and even despite a strong sprinter's pedigree, he should be able to handle a  one turn mile just fine.

 

The Big A was one of my favorite tracks as a young kid, and even so its a track that some horses just take a liking to as well. That was the case for a young promising Kentucky Derby trail contender named Independence Hall. 

One of the first real sparks we saw during a red hot season for sire Constitution, Independence Hall dazzled in the GIII Remsen at 2 and opened up New Year’s Day with a strong win in the Jerome Stakes. 

Despite a lot of traveling and a less than formful campaign, there are few horses that can match Independence Hall's level of consistency. He’s never finished worse than 5th, placed in the GI Pegasus World Cup and is coming off of back to back strong efforts in Kentucky culminating with a win in GII Hagyard Fayette, as well as a stall in the WinStar breeding shed. 

He’s definitely a live chance in here especially getting back to Aqueduct, however I think that angle will be a bit overplayed and I would side with Following Sea if placing a win bet.

 

Morning line favorite goes to Americanrevolution, another from the Pletcher barn who has performed very well against New York bred company this season and put together a strong Grade 1 placing in the Pennsylvania Derby. 

He torched the field of the Empire Classic LTO by 11 3/4 lengths which is why a lot of the backing is surrounding him early. In my opinion, the field he beat that day had several smart gallopers but many that are a bit past their primes. 

Horses like Mr. Buff and Sea Foam have been incredibly tough NY breds but have lost a step and looking at the field as a whole I don’t know if Americanrevolution beat much on the day. I don’t see any reason other than margin and one okay effort at Parx losing to two good horses, ahead of a slew of not good horses. I am willing to play against entirely in this spot.

 

My Plays:

$40 Win - 1 Following Sea = $40

$20 Exacta Box - 1,5 = $40

$5 Exacta Box - 1,5/6 = 20

Total = $100

 

Final Thoughts:

I am going to stick with the two horses I like on top, and give one safety exacta using the California shipper Ginobili in case he puts together a decent effort. 

He’s been very strong in recent efforts winning the Pat O’Brien and finishing 2nd at the Breeders’ Cup, however any form not coming from Del Mar in the past year or so has been very disappointing. 

If it is a case of him just improving at the right time then I will hope one of my top two will be there. If not, then expect Following Sea to get a much cleaner trip and expect Independence Hall to have a great day, at the Big A!