Will Express Train Roll in Pacific Classic?
By: The Turk
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| Express Train: Photo by Benoit |
On a personal level, Del Mar was the last track I visited before the pandemic. I was there for the Pacific Classic in 2019. My handicapping, and my love of horse racing, was hit hard last year by the pandemic and the impact it had on the schedule, the field sizes, and life in general. Don't take my lack of blogging to mean I'm not interested in horse racing anymore, I just was struggling to write about races I wasn't that interested in. I've rekindled my passion for racing this summer and I've been handicapping quite a bit as I start to prepare for my favorite meet, Kentucky Downs, and getting ready for Breeders' Cup. I'm not sure if I'll ever get back to writing 50-75 blog posts per year, but no matter how many it is, without a love for racing there can't be any.
Anyways, lets get after this!
There is quantity, but not real quality in this year's edition of the Pacific Classic. Let's take a look at some recent Video just to get a feel for the runners. My main goal of looking at video is to provide context to the past performance running lines. I look for trips, I gage if rank, game, dueled, outbid, dug in. Those are the buzzwords you'll see in the race charts and I like to confirm with my own eyes or identify possible bias in the analysis. You have to remember how many races the "experts" have to review and write notes on, and professional handicappers and racing journalists, how many races they have write about, people get lazy, or better yet, sloppy. If you are going to find overlays, and just as importantly, underlays, you have to look at the information, and video trip handicapping is the compendium to race charts. Can we find value?
The San Diego Handicap G2; 17 July 2021; 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt Del Mar
Key Prep: Exiting are Express Train (W), Royal Ship (S), Tripoli (P), Magic on Tap (5), Sherriff Brown (7)
The Cougar II G3; 18 July 2021; 1 1/2 Miles Fast Dirt Del Mar
Exiting: Tizmagician (1), Cupid's Claws (2)
The Monmouth Cup G3; 17 July 2021; 1 1/8 miles Fast Dirt Monmouth
Exiting: Dr. Post (1)
Contested: Express Train (2), Tizmagician (5), Independence Hall (4),
The Gold Cup G1; 31 May 2021; 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt Santa Anita
Contesting: Express Train (3), Royal Ship (2 Hd)
I can't help but favor Express Train based on the San Diego Handicap. The field was bunched and he just showed class when pressed by Royal Ship and Tripoli. Trainer Shirreff's runner has trained well since then and appears to be in excellent form. 9 of 10 in the money on fast dirt, his last seven outings are all consistent G1/G2 efforts, and 4 of 4 in the money at Del Mar. Solid.
Royal Ship (BRZ) is a 5 YO Mandella trainee. No wins and only one try at the distance (The Hollywood Gold Cup) but he looked solid in that outing. No wins in 2 tries at Del Mar. Perfectly capable of winning.
Tripoli is only making 3rd dirt start after 11 turf races from the Kitten's Joy 4 YO. He really went at Express Train in the San Diego Handicap but before that was a $60-70K ALW/OC contestant for 10 races or so. Sadler is showing confidence, I'm not sure I should be based on race charts.
Tizmagician is cutting back from Marathon distances. Nice effort in the Cougar II but it's a different tempo. Mandella/Pratt 28% winners on 29 tries at Del Mar and 36% Winners in rolling year in 90 starts. 11 of 16 in the money on fast dirt.
Dr. Post is a 4 YO Quality Road, and friends of the Turk know that Quality Road is one of my favorite horses of past 15 years. I try to set that bias aside. Dr. Post got a great trip in Monmouth Cup and he flashed serious speed. Pletcher doesn't ship west without a strong belief. First attempt at Classic Distance, First at Del Mar, if there is an upset candidate I like the speed he's going to have to target.
Magic on Tap is slow, inconsistent. Training very sharp at 5F, last win at 7F. If not for Baffert's name I'm not sure I give him much thought. I just don't see he deserves a look in my Exacta but he could be early speed.
I'm tossing Independence Hall (ML 5-1) Cupid's Claw and Sheriff Brown. Independence Hall is just uneven. Perhaps the Blinkers (29% On/23% First Time) may help. Trainer McCarthy 16% on 61 starts 61-180 day layoff and J/T Combo looking for first win in 4 tries.
I'm not thrilled at the betting prospects on this race as much as I am looking forward to seeing who steps up from this group. There are too few stars currently and a Pacific Classic win will make many of these horses a millionaire, which this race has none of.
I'm going to assemble an Exacta long on risk and big on reward. I'm going to put Tripoli/Dr. Post above Express Train, Royal Ship, Tizmagician and Magic on Top: 1-3 OVER 5-4-2-6 (1-3), a $2 bet for $16 or a $20 bet if I box 1-3.
The reality is Express Train should roll, Royal Ship should roll, but that's handicapping. In bet construction you have to say what if, you have to be willing to see the possibilities, and above all else, don't try to be too safe.
Have fun friends, Turk Out!
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