Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Ladies Sprint Stakes (G3)

Ruby Nation Seeks Ladies Sprint Repeat

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

As with the Kentucky Downs meet, and the turf sprint division as a whole, the Kentucky Downs Ladies Sprint (G3) is a race on the rise.  Instituted in 2013, it first earned a grade last year. It offered a $150,000 purse when it began, a purse that has increased in all but one year of its history; the race now offers a $500,000 purse (if you’re Kentucky-bred; $300,000 if not, which is still a hefty sum for a Grade 3).  The race has always been run at six and a half furlongs on the grass: a bit longer than your average American turf sprint, though one of the shorter ones you’ll see over the rolling lawn in Franklin, Kentucky.

Its second winner has been in the news this year as a broodmare.  In 2014 Richies Party Girl won the Kentucky Downs Ladies Sprint for trainer Wesley Ward and owners Ward and Richard Ravin.  Now Ward trains her first foal: Maven, a colt by 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.  In April, Maven became American Pharoah’s first winner in the United States when he won a dirt sprint at Belmont; he went on to win the Prix du Bois (G3) sprinting over the grass at Chantilly in June.

Two trainers have won this race twice: Ward also won the race’s inaugural edition with To My Valentine (2013), and Mark Casse won with both Sky Treasure (2015) and Mississippi Delta (2016).  Casse does not have an entrant this year, though Ward will try to win his third with Stillwater Cove. No horse has yet won the race more than once, though that may change this year: 2018 winner Ruby Notion returns to the starting gate.

This year’s edition of the Kentucky Downs Ladies Sprint drew an overflow field, twelve entrants plus three on the also-eligible list.

When handicapping Kentucky Downs it’s worth keeping a few things in mind.  For one, it’s always good to find a horse for the course, since Kentucky Downs is unlike any other course in America.  Of course, some horses who try it for the first time prove they like it, but some horses who haven’t been world-beaters elsewhere but ran anomalously well over it a year or two back can pay an overlaid price when returning to the course.  Only two entrants are winners over the course: Ruby Notion won this very race last year, and She’s All Skeet (mired three deep on the AE list) won a six-furlong maiden special in 2017 and then a second-level allowance over this distance last year. 

Secondly, speed often holds in sprints at Kentucky Downs.  What few sprint races there were on the card the first day at Kentucky Downs were won on or near the lead, suggesting that this year is no different.  Some tactical speed is important – after all, this is a sprint with a full field, so a one-dimensional need-to-lead type is at a disadvantage.

Last year’s winner, Ruby Notion, does not appear to come into the race in the same razor-sharp form as she carried into the race last year.  But last time out suggests she is coming back into better form than she was in.  Pace is a question: she seemed to have a bit more early speed earlier in her career, and has turned into more of a late-runner in this phase of her career.  But even now, that only means she sits a handful of lengths back; she’s not a deep closer.  If things get hot up front with the likes of Morticia, Painting Corners, and Coexistence she could trip out at a square price over a course we know she likes.

Among those speedier horses?  Morticia is the most class-proven of the bunch, but she keeps taking money this year, and keeps falling just short.  She fits the field, sure, but relegating her to the underneath rungs and not taking her on top is perhaps the best way to make this pay. 

Painting Corners will likely be a better price, and has more upside at this point.  From a pace perspective, Painting Corners can be tactical, with winning races right on the front end as well as from just off it.  She was sharp at Del Mar this summer, winning the Daisycutter and then running third in a tough allowance-optional.  Both of those races were over five furlongs, so she is stretching out for this.  But, with some smart form down the hill at Santa Anita, there’s an indication that she can stretch out and take her form with her.  Toss the odd dirt race (wash-offs are just not her thing!), and you see a mare who is consistent in good turf sprints out west, shipping for Peter Miller, who doesn’t put the horse on the plain or the van unless she fits.

Oleksandra has emerged as the “now” horse among the filly and mare turf sprint division; she started her career with a bit of promise in the maiden ranks in Australia, but has come into her own since moving to the States last fall. She has yet to try Kentucky Downs, but she is a mare who does not need to take her track with her: she won a five-and-a-half-furlong turf dash at Saratoga last out, but has also won at six furlongs at Belmont, as well as down the hill at Santa Anita.  Though Olexandra is a late-running type, she doesn’t have to drop all the way back to the clouds, and she won’t mind an honest pace in front of her.  The drawback is, the price will be short given her consistency and class, and it’s hard to get excited about a short price at Kentucky Downs.  But, it’s impossible not to see her as a contender in her current form.

Selections:

#10 Ruby Notion (6/1)

#6 Painting Corners (8/1)

#3 Oleksandra (3/1)

Longshot:  #5 Coexistence (15/1) hasn’t won at Kentucky Downs yet but her one race over the course was very good.  She led most of the way going a mile and five sixteenths at Kentucky Downs last year, and digging in late to lose by only a neck.  Holding that long in a route at Kentucky Downs is a solid effort, since routes there tend to be as friendly for closers as sprints are to frontrunning types.  Sure, this will be Coexistence’s first time sprinting at Kentucky Downs. 

But?  Trainer Joe Sharp has successfully reinvented her as a one-turn horse this year.  She broke her maiden March 24 at Fair Grounds, the first time she was cut back to five and a half furlongs, and she hasn’t looked back.  Perhaps odd for a horse who started as a router, she does have sprint speed, as she showed two starts back.  She also has the ability to stalk the pace, a positive with other front-end gas drawn in.   

Coexistence does have some tables to turn, as May Lily has beaten her in two of her last three starts, but Coexistence may get a better run from a pace perspective this time around.  She has held form consistently this campaign, she returns to a course she likes (and that her regular jockey Adam Beschizza rides well!), and she should have no problem stretching out to six and a half furlongs.  She offers a lot to like at a price.