Jim Dandy Lineup Derby Déjà vu?
By: John DaSilva, PARX Linemaker
On Saturday,
the eyes of the racing world will focus on Saratoga. The 56th
running of the Grade 2 $600,000 Jim Dandy Stakes presented by NYRA Bets at a
mile and an eighth will be held. It is the prep to the Grade 1 Runhappy
Travers.
This year’s
edition of the Jim Dandy only produced six runners, but each horse is a stakes
winner at a mile or over in their career. Morning line favorite Tacitus and
Preakness winner War of Will are the only multiple graded stakes winners in the
race.
Tacitus was installed the 7-5 favorite by
NYRA linemaker David Aragona. The Bill Mott trainee has always been highly
regarded, especially after winning the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and the Grade 2
Wood Memorial. Sent off at 5.8-1 in the Kentucky Derby, Tacitus had a troubled
trip when finishing fourth and then placed third via the Maximum Security
disqualification in the Derby. He then came back as the favorite in the Belmont
Stakes and despite dealing with traffic, finished full of run to be second by a
length to Sir Winston.
Since the
Belmont, Tacitus has been working well at Saratoga, showing improvement with
each work. Mott has been known to be a patient trainer and likes to work his
horses into shape and may use a race to prep for a goal. But Tacitus is a
multiple stakes winner and has not finished off the board this year. A victory
here and then in the Travers would make him the leading three year old in the
country as racing heads into the fall season. His running style could be a hindrance
as he likes to come from off the pace, but he cannot be ignored versus these.
Regular jock Jose Ortiz will ride.
Surprisingly,
Global Campaign was made the 2-1 second choice by Aragona. The Stanley
Hough trainee is highly regarded, winning the Grade 3 Peter Pan over eventual
Belmont Stakes winner Sir Winston by a length and a quarter. But Global
Campaign aggravated hoof problems that caused him to miss the Kentucky Derby.
Global Campaign was entered but forced to scratch from the Ohio Derby on June
22nd because of the hoof problems. He has been playing catchup ever
since and while he might not be 100% fit coming into the race, this is a prep
and a good race could set him up well for the Travers. Breaking from Post 4, he
will be ridden by his regular jockey Luis Saez. That is surprising, because he
is also the regular jock for Maximum Security, who is also being pointed to the
Travers.
War of
Will is the horse
that has the most to gain here. The Mark Casse trainee was involved in the
incident that caused the controversial Maximum Security decision. Then in the
Preakness, jockey Tyler Gaffalione learned his lesson from the Derby, held his
ground and came up the rail to gain the lead and victory. But then in the
Belmont, he was in good position but after brushing with stablemate Sir
Winston, he fell back to finish ninth.
Casse sent
War of Will back to Churchill Downs and worked there once before shipping to
Saratoga to finalize his Jim Dandy preparations. Breaking from Post 6, it will
be interesting to see if Gaffalione can get to the inside and save ground of
will he be forced to stalk outside. Some people have thought the Preakness
field was weak and War of Will isn’t one of the better horses in the division.
He needs to win or at least run very well if he is to be considered a Travers
contender and still be considered a contender for the three year old
championship. He is the third choice in the race at 5-2.
Tax is an intriguing prospect here. Breaking
from post 2, The Danny Gargan trainee and Grade 3 Withers Stakes winner was
second to Tacitus in the Wood Memorial. After a fifteenth place finish in the
Derby, Gargan decided to point Tax to the Belmont. A week prior to the Belmont,
Tax stepped on a rock and bruised a heel. Despite that injury, he pressed the
pace and finished fourth in the Belmont. He has worked very well since then and
a healthy heel, he could be a pace factor and one to finish in the money at a
price. Irad Ortiz Jr. will be riding.
Laughing
Fox is 15-1 and when
you can get those odds on a Steve Asmussen horse, give the horse a second look.
Asmussen won this race last year with Tenfold. Laughing Fox won the Oaklawn
Invitational winner. He was far back early but finished well to be fifth in the
Preakness. The lack of early speed puts him at a disadvantage here, especially
if there is a slow pace. But he will probably be running fastest of all in the
stretch drive, just have to see how much ground he has to make up versus these.
He breaks from the rail and Ricardo Santana Jr. has the mount.
Mihos is trained by the Son of the Giant
Killer, Jimmy Jerkens, who trained 2014 winner Wicked Strong. After winning the
Mucho Macho Man at a mile at Gulfstream, he made his two turn debut in the
Grade 2 Holy Bull, making up ground in the stretch to be fifth. He then came
back to a one turn mile in the Grade 3 Dwyer and finished fourth. He now
stretches out to nine furlongs while returning to two turns. He has worked very
well for this spot. He breaks from post 3 and he is 15-1 with Junior Alvarado
aboard.
The Pace:
The pace of
the race should not be fast and that will hurt couple horses here. Breaking
from post two, I expect Tax to break sharply and set the pace with War
of Will stalking outside. On the turn, the pressure should intensify.
Turning for home I could see four horses within a length of each other. At the
wire, I could see Mihos outlasting Taticus for the victory with Tax
holding on to third.
Selections:
#3 Mihos
(15-1)
#5 Taticus
(7-5)
#2 Tax
(8-1)
Handigambling:
$40 win #3
$10 exacta
key box #3, #5, #2
$5 exacta
key box #3, #6, #1
