Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Santa Maria Stakes (G2)

Santa Maria Stakes Will Have Forceful Ending

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

This small field of accomplished field of fillies and mares will offer a great race to watch and maybe wager on. With a collection of top jocks and trainers, the race should be run true to each horse’s form. The pace should be honest with the two inside horses inclined for speed and with a front-running style. Tapped shows inclination to engage early, as well. Will they set the race up for a closer? That is the key question to this race.

 

1.       Just a Smidge (Into Mischief) is a long shot with a desire to push the pace. She and jockey, Garcia, will set the pace from the rail. Shortening-up to 8.5 furlongs is to her advantage. May be in the mix until the end.

2.       Paradise Woods (Union Rags) is the class of the field and the prohibitive Morning Line favorite. Her last few races show tactical speed, but early in her career she was prone to lead the pack. She turned in a very big Thoro-Graph number in her last race. Will she bounce this time? Smith is a genius at judging pace. He will likely track Just a Smidge waiting for the opportunity to ponce. She is giving four pounds to the others which may hurt her chances, but the likely winner.

3.       Exuberance (Archarcharch) is the second-long shot and has little form or speed figures to like. She will be competing for fifth.

4.       Tapped (Tapit) is a solid closer who is coming up in company She is versatile with early turn-of-foot and with a powerful late run. She will likely let others set the pace. She could be flying late. An exotic play is in her range.

5.       La Force (Power, GB) finished second to the favorite, Paradise Woods, the last time out in a grade two on the same surface. She conceded the race when she went three-wide closing into the stretch with equal weights with Paradise Woods. With four-pound advantage this time she could make amends. Biggest threat.

The race’s finish may be known in the first furlong. Will a speed duel ensue? Will Mike Smith read the race right?  Likely, Just a Smidge will challenge Mike Smith’s race strategy by controlling the rail and the pace. Paradise Woods will track in second. At the quarter pole, both La Force and Tapped will be making their moves on the two leaders. With a half-a-furlong to go It will be a 3-way-charge to the finish-line.

La Force benefiting from the weight difference will pass Paradise Woods at the wire to win. Tapped will surprise her previous jockey, Mike Smith, with a courageous burst at the end. Unfortunately, she will not be successful but will fill-out the Trifecta.

Here is how they will finish:

1.       La Force (#5)

2.       Paradise Woods (#2)

3.       Tapped (#4)

Handigamble play:

$40 Win and Place on La Force (#5) -------$80.00

$2 Exacta box (#5, # 2, #4) ---$12.00

$4 exacta-part-wheel (#4, #5) over (#2) ----$8.00

Good luck, but keep the day job!

 

MONMOUTH STAKES (G2T)

RULER OF MONMOUTH

Michael Mills

Off to The Shore for the Memorial Day Weekend and the Grade 2 Monmouth Stakes to be run at 1 1/8 miles over the turf course. Here is the field:

#1 Monarchs Glen Mott 5-year-old by Frankel makes his second U.S. start and second off the layoff.  Stretches out to a better distance and could make first run on the leaders turning for home.

#2 Almanaar One of two in here for trainer Chad Brown and gets the services of Jersey Joe Bravo.  Runner-up in the Arlington Million last year but ended his 2018 campaign with three duds in top races.  If ready off the layoff he could be a handful, or has he lost a step at seven.

#3 Markitoff  Just missed at 62-1 two back in a Fair Grounds Grade 2.  Showed speed in last two so expect him to try the front and go as far as he can.

#4 Up the Ante Well-bred four-year-old for Clement.  Steps up in class second off the layoff.  Looks to bring speed to the fray.

#5 Irish Strait Seven-year-old Motion Graham charger looks to be more speed.  Has run well    over the course with 4 wins (10 of 12 in the money).  Finished third in this event two years ago but was better back then.

#6 Force the Pass  Has only one run at the distance lifetime.  Seven-year-old looks to have lost a step or two.

#7 Synchrony The six-year-old went with blinkers for the first time in last to run seventh in the Grade 1 Turf Classic at Churchill on Derby Day.  The blinkers come right off.  The morning line favorite is also the high weight giving four pounds to all but Irish     Strait.

#8 Projected   The second runner from Brown just missed three weeks ago in the Cliff Hanger Stakes over this sod at one mile.  Might be a bit more forwardly placed in this         event and try to hold off the cavalry late.

Winner:   #1 Monarchs Glen….Fresh face, last looked like a prep, across the pond he      showed he can run a big one from time to time….sits midpack and gets first jump.

Plays:

$20 Win and Place #1

$10 Ex Box     1 / 2 7 8

Have A Day

A MUSICAL TRIBUTE IN THE TRIBLE BEND

Nick Costa

Horse Racing Nation

The San Gabriel Mountains provide an alluring backdrop for Santa Anita Racetrack, aka, the ‘Great Race Place’, the venue for the Triple Bend Stakes, our ThoroFan race of the week.


The seven furlong affair, for horses four years old and up, carries a purse of $200,000, and offers extended sprint specialists a chance to shine.

After being a Grade 1 event since 2004, the race was demoted in status this season to Grade 2.

First run as the Lakes and Flowers Handicap at Hollywood Park in 1952, the

Triple Bend, named after the 1972 Santa Anita Handicap winner, will be contested for the 68th time on Saturday and be run for sixth consecutive

year at Santa Anita.

Last year’s Triple Bend Stakes winner, City of Light, followed up his one and a half-length victory here by taking the G1 BC Dirt Mile and G1 Pegasus World Cup, before being retired.

Trainer Bob Baffert, a five-time winner of this contest, the most by any trainer, will saddle two entrants.

A competitive and solid field of eight older sprinters will take to the track – Race 8 on the Saturday card. Post time is 7:30 Eastern/4:30 Pacific.

Here’s a glance at the combatants from the rail out.

PP – Horse – Jockey - Trainer

1 – American Anthem – Mike Smith – Bob Baffert – Two-time Grade 2 winner came off a nine-month layoff to narrowly miss in his return on the Derby Day undercard. That race was at one-mile. He now cuts back to his preferred distance, where he’s won 4 of 5.

2 – Cistron – Victor Espinoza – John Sadler – Returned to the dirt last start for the first time since the summer of 2017 and became a graded stakes winner with a wire-to-wire romp in the G2 Kona Gold Stakes. Front-runner is on the upswing and will try to extend his speed another half-furlong here.

3- Law Abidin Citizen – Tiago Pereira – Mark Glatt – Exits a turf win last time out in the G3 Sam Simeon, notching his initial stakes score. He has limited dirt experience in his career, with only a pair of starts over the surface, but has placed both times. Has been absent for nearly two months, but his morning works have been regular.

4 – Majestic Eagle – Flavien Prat – Neil Drysdale – Another runner with a multitude of grass races. This son of Medaglia D’Oro is still struggling to get out of NW2x allowance conditions. This is the wrong surface and too short a distance for this colt.

5 – Nero - Drayden Van Dyke – Bob Baffert –The talent is certainly there with three wins and the same number of second place finishes from seven starts on his resume. Has recorded three consecutive bullet works since his last start in March. He’s been a bit quirky at times in his races, losing focus, but if his mind is on running, he’ll be tough to deny. Distance suits nicely.

6 – Air Strike – Norberto Arroyo – Philip D’Amato – Hasn’t won past entry level allowance conditions, but has kept good enough company when pitted against some tougher foes. Trainer D’Amato excels with horses making their third start off a layoff and also with those cutting back in distance, both categories this colt falls into.

7 – The Hardest Way – Joe Talamo – Ron Ellis – Returned to action after nearly 13-months away, and annexed an optional-claiming/allowance by a substantial margin, earning his biggest Bris speed figure to date. He’s won consecutive races, and has a flair for winning large too, with sizable tallies in his three lifetime wins. He takes a big jump up in class here and also tackles this tricky distance for the first time.

8 – All Out Blitz - Martin Garcia – Simon Callaghan – Colt was second throughout in the G2 Kona Gold Stakes last month. He’s won two of his four starts this year, most recently a half-length win in an ungraded stakes in March at Sunland Park. He’s compiled an overall record of 15-4-3-2 and has won going shorter and longer. He rates a good chance as he seeks his first graded win.

ANALYSIS: In seven furlong races, I tend to favor horses that have shown an affinity for the distance and American Anthem is such a runner. The five-year old has won four races going seven panels, two over this very oval. He had a nice tightener last time out at a distance beyond his best range, and is eligible for further improvement in his second start of the campaign. Gets reunited with jockey Mike Smith who has been aboard for three wins at the distance.

Nero is a lightly raced colt who displayed talent from the outset and was an early 2018 Derby contender. However, following a runner-up finish in the San Vicente, he was given time off until the fall of the year. That layoff was the second lengthy interruption of his young career, the first came after his winning maiden debut as a juvenile. There is early speed with this one and that should help him get good position as he prefers to have a target to run at. If he keeps interested throughout, he could prove best of all.

All Out Blitz is sent out by trainer Simon Callaghan, who is winning races at nearly a 30% clip. The colt is reunited with jockey Martin Garcia, who’s been riding hot the last week.



WAGER: With $100 mythical Thorofan dollars, I will bet $40 dollars to win on American Anthem and play a $20 exacta box with him and Nero. I will play both horses over All Out Blitz in straight $10 exactas.

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race.

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Preakness Stakes (G1)

ThoroFan Handicappers Preaking Out!

 

The collective minds of the ThoroFan Handicappers take their best shot at the 2018 Preakness. Picks are for first through third place and their best longshot bomb. 

Good Luck to everyone and Get Your Preak On!

HANDICAPPER	FIRST	SECOND	THIRD	LONGSHOT
Michael Amo	Bourbon War	Improbable	Owendale	Laughing Fox
John Caro	Owendale	Alwaysmining	Warrior’s Charge	Bourbon War
Robert Marks	Alwaysmining	War of Will	Laughing Fox	Everfast
Michael Mills	Bourbon War	Improbable	Signalman	None
Nicolle Neulist	War of Will	Alwaysmining	Bourbon War	Owendale
Laurie Ross	Improbable	War of Will	Alwaysmining	Laughing Fox