Handicapper's Corner: Buena Vista Stakes (G2)

Can Vasilika Keep Win Streak Going?

By: The Turk 

 

Vasilika- Photo: San Diego Union Tribune

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, now in our 11th season of providing horse talk and handicapping to people who never asked for it.  I'd like to thank the Thorofan for awaking me from my handicappers holiday and inviting me to write for their Handicapper's Corner.





Life to me is always about striking a balance.  I try to strike a balance in my handicapping by taking a break from Breeders' Cup until right about now.  I know the powers that be want me to be excited about The Pegasus World Cup, blah blah blah, but I'm not, it's more important to me to put my red gel pen down and relax my brain.

I'm not much of a Triple Crown handicapper either.  Over the last several years I've really honed in on what I do well.  I keep a database that goes back well over a decade and its always been clear to me my ROI is the best with 4 YO or Greater, Turf, Good or Firm.  That works for me because I love the older horses, the ones not valued yet in the breeding shed, and I love the data that comes through the Past Performances and Race Charts on these animals.  Today's Buena Vista Grade 3 is in the sweet spot.  That beast pictured above is my heavy chalk, Vasilika.  She is just the sort of Mare that makes me love this sport, a survivor, a competitor, a former claimer turned Grade 1 winner.  Great stuff.

Let's get after it!  The weather looks to be dry today and tomorrow.  The turf is currently listed as good with rail at 20 feet but I'm sure its trending towards firm.

If the past is prologue, which the recent past usually is in horse racing, let's start with same distance, good turf, same track and review what we have here.

 21 January 2019  SA 1 Mile Turf/Good:  Grade 3 Megahertz

                                                                                                                                                                                                           
 

I don't think you need to overthink and the system archetype (if your into Peter Senge speak) is simple:  Take Vasilika as heavy chalk and build Place -Show Tri's and Exacta's with value underneath her -OR- put her in Place and Show and Find major value beating her.  I'm not completely sure what I'm doing yet, but those are my game plans when faced with this scenario and my results are typically very good with some massive takes when the heavy chalk stumbles and some good takes when so real value sneaks into Place and Show (or just exacta Place).   Get out of your head ye' beginners that every bet has to be the grand slam.  I often will take a race like this and put Vasilika on top and wheel through my 12-1 and greater Turk Fair Line runners on $2 exacta's.  You'll lose more than you win but the wins should be greater than the losses over time so long as your fair line odds setting is reasonably sound.  I wont waste much time talking about Vasilika, an absolute beast with great late turn of foot and no slouch early either.  50% winner over Turf.  8 wins in 9 SA turf starts.

To me the interesting runners are:  

Fahan Mura, with conditioner V. Cerin, is 7 of 7 in the money with 6 wins at SA and 12 of 15 in the money at the distance.   I toss the Pegasus World Cup Turf outing if I'm optimistic.  Cerin's Stakes win percentage of 6% makes me keep things real here, but huge Timeform early speed fig of 125, how she carries will determine if she hangs on for Place-Fourth.

Mike Smith, atop a Blame filly (oh the irony dear Z) Ms Bad Behavior has seen the best of Vasilika.  I tend to not think more opportunities will change outcomes.  This filly has 4 straight Place finishes, something that I also think is a red flag for winning chances.  12 of 14 lifetime in the money, 9 of 10 lifetime turf in the money and 5 of 5 distance in the money says she'll be heard.  Worst case scenario is a 9-2 exacta.  

Amandine at ML 8-1 and Zaffinah at ML 12-1 interest me.  Conditioner Mullins (23% stakes) turns Amandine (GB) back after weakening in the Megahertz.  The 4 YO has an underlying class and sometimes that jump from 3 to 4 unlocks stars from pretenders.  Zaffinah (Ire) is in same situation.  Trainer Carava is 25% 2nd off 45-180 but zero stakes wins in last rolling year.

 Elysea's World (Ire), ML Place at 4-1, is first time out for Trainer Baltas after leaving Chad Brown's barn.  The 6 YO has never won at the distance, racing at 1 mile only once, and has never won at SA, with a Place effort in December 2017.  I love the late turn of foot.   Easily could upset the apple cart Place to Exotic but I have a hard time picturing her catching the speed in front of her, which there will be many targets.

Streak of Luck/10 is a pretty flat runner.  A nice bullet work of 5F at :59 3/5ths off a 1 Mile Turf win at SA in late January, albeit at a pedestrian Beyer of 82, signals good form.

I'm not sure which way I'm going but a couple of ideas:
9 OVER 4-2-6-3 $2 Exacta for $8
OR
4-2-6-3-8 over 9 a $2 Exacta for $10.

Have fun with it friends!

Turk out.

Handicapper's Corner: Risen Star (G2)

Rising Stars in Louisiana

By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds

 

The Risen Star Stakes (G2) is the second leg of three Kentucky Derby prep races held at the Fair Grounds.  The contest is the first 2019 Kentucky Derby qualifier under the 50-20-10-5 points system. 

A full field of 14 will head to the post. Gun It drew in after Kingly was scratched. 

The Favorite:

War Of Will just keeps getting better. After the son of War Front switched from turf to dirt, he’s beaten rivals by a combined 9 lengths, including a run-away triumph in the LeComte. War of Will likes to press the pace, and to maintain that running style, Tyler Gaffalione will need to send him early to get a good position from the far outside post. Distance isn’t a factor, but War of Will needs a sharp break from the far outside.

Back for More

Plus Que Parfait had a bumper car start breaking from the gate in the LeComte. He placed an even fifth, despite having an outside trip the entire race. This time around, the son of Point of Entry drew the rail.  Plus Que Parfait has the speed to stay closer to the pace, if Leparoux will use it, so maybe we’ll see improvement this time around.

Also returning from the LeComte, Roiland took his sweet time coming out of the gate, followed the pack for much of the race, and passed a few tired horses in the stretch. The Amoss trainee is a hard luck horse. He has a habit of breaking slow, bumping, you name it.

After winning his maiden, Chase the Ghost ran evenly in the LeComte after bumping at the start and a wide trip. Not impressed that Lanerie abandons horse to stick with the other Stewart entry Frolic More. Chase the Ghost has slowly improving speed figures, and the farther the better. Don’t count out closers from the Stewart barn!

Hog Creek Hustle looked good hustling past tired horses to earn a runner-up check in the LeComte. In his last two starts, while he closed with a fury, he didn’t make up any ground on the winners. A fast early pace would help, but I think he’s more one-paced than furious closer.

Manny Wah is a half-brother to Lookin’ at Lucky. That being said, so far, he’s been a step below the top competition. I’m not convinced he wants two turns and he may have company on the pace.

Seasonal Debuts

Mr. Money was ambitiously placed in the BC Juvenile, and placed a credible fourth, after a poor trip. He’s been breezing well at Fairgrounds, but again appears in tough in his first start off a layoff. Only two horses in the last 13 years has pulled this off. Gun Runner was the latest.  Don’t think he can win it, but Mr. Money might place in the exotics.

Limonite is bred for turf, but has done just fine over the dirt. He’s had tough luck, beaten a neck in two of four starts. Limonite closed from the clouds to finish third in the KY Jockey Club Stakes, and his final Trakus numbers were faster than Signalman’s and Plus Que Parfait’s. Steve Asmussen gave Limonite two quick breezes for the colt’s 2019 debut, including a second-to-last bullet. Additionally, Brian Hernandez, Jr. takes over the reins.

Logical Longshots

Country House didn’t beat much in his last start, but boy, did he do it impressively. Breaking from post 1, Country House took a left turn, brushed the rail, and promptly found himself over six lengths behind the field. Saez gave Country House time to find his stride, then circled the field to power home by 3 1/2 lengths. Not impressive enough? How about the fact that his first quarter was 25.13 and his last was 23.78 over a speed-favoring track? Has longshot appeal.

Now for something completely different. If you’ve seen Henley's Joy’s past performances, you’ll note the son of Kitten’s Joy has done quite well as a turf horse. Many, including my esteemed colleague considers him an automatic toss. Not so fast. After multiple unsuccessful tries on turf, Henley’s Joy’s dam won her maiden in her first attempt on dirt. Kitten’s Joy has 26 dirt stakes winners, and Henley’s Joy looks comfortable breezing on dirt. Mike Maker captured the 2015 Risen Star with International Star and doesn’t ship for the fun of it. The question is, how will Henley’s Joy handle the dirt kickback? Guess we’ll find out. Longshot potential.

Not Gonna Get’em Today

Owendale is ready to take a step forward after a professional victory over Frolic More and Gun It. He doesn’t need the lead to win and the duo of Cox &  Bridgmohan are hitting at 42% together. On the negative side, Owendale’s late pace speed figures aren’t all that and he’s previously finished behind Roiland and Limonite. He’ll have to step up his game to run with the big boys.

Frolic More  looked just ok in his 3 year old debut. He bobbled at the start, but made up some ground to finish a clear second to Owendale. Nice, but nothing spectacular. He’s another that will need to improve dramatically to win, but could take home a minor award with improvement second off the layoff. On the other hand, the outside post won’t help.

Gun It  has shown shades of green in every start, and it cost him victories in two of his three starts. The far outside post in the Risen Star won’t do the pretty gray colt any favors. Talented, but this quirky son of Tapit (who else?) needs to get his head into the game, much. Maybe blinkers would sort him out.

Dunph has shown moderate ability against restricted and listed runners. He was stuck on the outside in the Springboard mile and ran out of oats in the stretch. Appears a cut below.  

Selections

Limonite? I admit, he wasn’t my first choice for the top spot. But as much as I’ve become a believer in War of Will, that far outside post concerns me. I like Limonite’s breeze pattern coming into the Risen Star and the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes is a key race. Plus, the jock switch could be the key to a breakthrough win.

Country House, my next pick for the top spot, was ultra-impressive while breaking his maiden. Will he regress off the 123 late pace Brisnet speed figure? Here’s a clue: his post-race breezes were slower than pre-race. Maybe he’s that good, but let him prove it. 

Henley’s Joy is another interesting horse, and I like his smooth gate over the dirt.  Note that both War of Will and Country House made a successful transition to dirt from turf.    

Track bias and race history:   In the last seven years, horses who pressed the pace or settled in mid-pack were victorious in in the Risen Star. Only one deep closer was successful. Pace setters generally falter but have placed second through fourth. Winners broke from posts 1, and 4 through 10, with two each from the middle posts of 6 and 7.  The Risen Star hero placed no worse than fourth in their previous start, which was usually in January. 

#10 Limonite (10/1)

#14 War of Will (5/2)

#9 Country House (20-1)

#5 Henley's Joy (10-1)

Handigambling

The Risen Star is a great betting opportunity. The prohibitive favorite is stuck on the far outside in a full field, and some intriguing new faces will take him on. There isn’t a ton of speed in the Risen Star; Manny Wah will likely set the pace with Owendale, War of Will and Gun It in the mix. Most of the field will settle into position behind the top flight, while Frolic More and Hog Creek hustle will do their best running late.

With a large field, start with reverse handicapping. Toss the bottom feeders, those whose overall speed figures and last few races aren’t up to par. Then concentrate on the remaining horses.

$0.20 Super Key: #10/ #14, #9, #5, #1, #3, #6 = $24

$0.20 Super Key: #14/  #10, #9, #5, #1, #3, #6 = $24

$5 Across the board (4-1 or greater): #10, #9, #5 = $45

$7 for a hurricane rum drink.

Handicappers Corner: Rachel Alexandra S. (G2)

Field in Need of Supervision

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

With the fever of the Run for the Roses around, it is easy to be a sexist, regardless of your gender, and forget that the 3-year-old fillies offer exciting races, too. This week’s Handicappers’ Corner race is from the Fair Grounds, the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (GII) and may prove that point.

The field of ten fillies is stratified into class groups. Only two have grade one level experience. Three others have grade two level experience. The remaining five are trying graded company for the first time. Yet, it is early in the year and this may make little difference. 

Weather may be a problem. New Orleans is predicting rain in the morning and continuing through post-time, albeit lightening-up. Condition of the track may make the difference.

Let’s look at the field:

    1.   Molto Bella ((Violence) has the best speed pattern with a supportive draw. Showed very little in December when she was beaten soundly by Positive Spirit (#5). May need a few more races before her true quality level shows.

    2.   Street Band (Street Minstrel) will challenge Molto Bella for the lead and help set the pace of the race. Clearly, a major step-up in class for this filly. Will like the wet going, if forecast is right. Wait and see.

    3.   Serengeti Empress (Alternation) has won at this level and gave Jaywalker, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner, a threat early in that race. Has enough class to make her mark here. The major question— is she ready after a 3 plus month layoff.

    4.   Positive Spirit (Pioneerof the Nile) dominated the Demoiselle in December. This suggests she is up to the task. Always in the money with the last two on top. Workout pattern mirrors her previous successes. Dangerous.

    5.   Liora (Candy Ride) showed her love for the wet going in her November race. Will like the wet going, if forecast is right.  But she will be one of the group trying for the lead and may be caught-up in duel.

    6.   Oxy Lady (Oxbow) following her win in the Tempted Stakes in November, she performed well in the Starlet Stakes (GI) a month later. If the pace is forced, this filly will be in the picture at the end.

    7.   Bell’s the One (Majesticperfection) keeps jockey Geroux which is a good sign. However, 8.5-furlong distance may be too much for her, now. Perhaps the connections have their eyes on a later race. Pass.

    8.   Eres Tu (Malibu Moon) had a solid race in her last race losing by only ¾ of a length to Needs Supervision in a stretch duel. Combination of trainer Asmussen and jockey Santana telegraph good things. Her closing style needs a hot pace. Maybe.

    9.   Needs Supervision (Paynter) has been out of the Winner’s Circle in only one race in her last four starts. Likes Fair Grounds could notch her first graded win. Will like the wet going, if forecast is right. Serious contender.

    10.Chasing Yesterday (Tapit) scratched.

This appears to be a tougher race to handicap than expected. As such setting aside graded race experience may be a helpful angle. With the speed horse on the rail we can expect an honest early pace. But Fair Grounds hasn’t favorable to speed over the last five days –40% winning on the front end while 59% winning off the pace. 

You have to respect Serengeti Empress’s speed and being the only one to win a grade one race, albeit three months ago. Chasing Yesterday will be tough, but may need one. Positive Spirit is showing a solid improvement pattern and should continue to improve. The undefeated Bell’s the One should stretch out well. Needs Supervision will have a huge closing punch that could surprise. Here is how I see them finishing:

    1.   Needs Supervision (#9)

    2.   Positive Spirit (#4)

    3.   Chasing Yesterday (#10)

    4.   Bell’s the One (#7)

Handigamble ($100)

    1.   $20 win and place on Needs Supervision (#9) --$40

    2.   $5 Exacta Box –Needs Supervision (#9), Positive Spirit (#4) and Chasing Yesterday (#10) --$20

    3.   $1 Trifecta Box --- Needs Supervision (#9), Positive Spirit (#4), Chasing Yesterday (#10) and Bell’s the One (#7) --$24

    4.   $1 Trifecta Key --- (not in play) Needs Supervision (#9) over Positive Spirit (#4) Chasing Yesterday (#10) and Bell’s the One (#7) over Positive Spirit (#4) Chasing Yesterday (#10) and Bell’s the One (#7) --$6

Good luck, but keep the day job.