Handicapper's Corner: Rampart Stakes (G3)

Gearing up for Wet Rampart Stakes

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member

Welcome back to Gulfstream. Big stakes day here and Audible will be practicing for the Pegasus in the Harlan’s Holiday. But that’s another story….. The weather is forecast for 40% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon but, this is Florida, and anything can happen.

We do have a nice field of fillies and a mare going a one turn mile for this contest. Lots of speed looks like the scenario for this running. And recent races here are not being won on the front. Those that can track a fast pace and close from near the front have been the winners. Let’s hope for a safe race.

Electric Forest (3-1) Brown/Ortiz, J.L. – There is no question that the connections are working well with this young filly. She’s two for three and 90+ on her speed going shorter. Ortiz has been aboard for all her starts and has been able to use her tactically should a fast pace be set on the front by others. The stretch-out going one turn should not be a factor given her pedigree.

Tweeting (8/5) Navarro/Jimenez – Navarro has brought a new meaning to winning at Gulfstream as of late. He’s had this filly basking in the Florida sunshine since early November and made six very nice workouts including a 6 furlong drill and a bullet last Sunday. Looks ready to go. Her narrow loss going shorter after a blistering pace may have been a result of a jockey anxious to get the lead too early. Jimenez last ride aboard was a stellar, on the lead, effort winning by 12 against weaker. The only things that concern me is class and off-track conditions. She’s not competed against much stakes company and her last effort on a good track showed regressing speed. Has to be used.

Tapa Tapa Tapa (5-1) Hamm/Castellano – Certainly the one who has seen many stakes races this classy gal was rested for several months and went back on the work tab with a vengeance since mid-October. The last four works are bullets over at Tampa. Have to think she needed a break and is back to challenge. She can go the distance and has proven it. Castellano hasn’t been burning up Gulfstream (yet) but he has won 23 stakes this year and there is no reason he can’t notch another. Longshot play.

Breaking Bread (4-1) Navarro/Jaramillo – Another from the Navarro barn who’s been down here since November and had regular works with two bullets and a mud work. Jaramillo has been working hard to win the jockey title at Gulfstream and although this mare does not play at this level she does like to be in the money. In some regard I like her better than Navarro’s short priced filly.

Tequilita (6-1) Matz/Saez – If track conditions are off, this is my go-to girl for the following: Her recent race in the mud with Saez up was well done. She has good stakes experience. She’s the top money winner in this field. She had nice works to prepare for this race. The other reason is Saez is very hot at Gulfstream. If it’s wet this is the likely winner.

Snirvana (20-1) Biancone/Maragh, R.R. – I’m looking hard at a filly that’s going to try dirt for the first time and has been training on the turf at Palm Meadows? The trainer’s record turf to dirt is 9%. His grades stakes percentage is zero, although the connections did win the black type turf stakes last week. His favorite jockey is up for this test. Wondering if the turf experience will play a role if the track is off? Maybe there is an angle I’ve overlooked, but I can live with it.

Inspeightofyou (20-1) Minott/Panici – Another I’m struggling with as the barn has had her for three weeks, done one work has speed figures that don’t figure and the trainer record in this situation is not encouraging. There is some hope in that her record shows 3 wins in four tries at the distance when training under Tom Amoss at a lower level races and a black type stakes while at Delta Downs. Filler?

Handigambling…. The Value is in the 5 and 3. Play them the way you like. My recommendations are:

It’s expected to be an off track

$3 - Trifecta – 5,3 with 5,3,1,2,4 with 5,3,1,2,4     $72

$10 – Exacta Box – 5 & 3          $20

Fast track?

$5 Trifecta 5,3 w 5,3,1 w all         $100 a 

 

Handicapper's Corner: Harlan's Holiday Stakes (G3)

Audible Deafening Favorite in Harlan's Holiday Stakes

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The one 1/16-mile Harlan’s Holiday Stakes contested at Gulfstream Park since 2011, attracted a small field of six older colts and geldings.  Todd Pletcher has saddled two winners in the Grade 3 event, Liam’s Map in 2014 and Stanford in 2016. 

This year, Pletcher sends out the swift Audible, and the lesser known Argentinean bred, Village King.   


Let’s review the field.

Contenders

AUDIBLE is a perfect two for two at Gulfstream. After taking the summer off, the bay son of Into Mischief reappeared in the seven-furlong Cherokee Run, besting the field by two lengths. He’ll be the overwhelming favorite and is the class of the field.

After a steady career as a turf router, VILLAGE KING proved to be adept over the fast Aqueduct dirt in the Red Smith Stakes, which was taken off the turf. True, my 95-year-old mother could have run the early fractions faster, and it was painful to watch a bunch of turf horses staggering home over the dirt, but Village King was determined and won by a nose, earning the second highest Brisnet late pace speed figure in the field.  Posts 4 through 7 are winning at 21%. 

APOSTLE gets back to dirt after a failed experiment on the lawn. The very well-bred son of Medaglia d’Oro is a half-brother to multiple G3 stakes winner Carve, and his dam Apt (A.P. Indy) is a half-sister to the champion and sire Blame. Apostle has a later—maturing pedigree and is rounding into form, and he should be forwardly placed.

SIR ANTHONY is looking to make it four in a row in the Harlan’s Holiday. He picks up a check more often than not and has won and placed in state-bred stakes. He’ll make a late run under Brian Hernandez, Jr. and could round out the exotics.

Pretenders

After nine tries this year, MINUTE MADNESS won his last race, a $16K optional claimer at Calder…er.. Gulfstream Park West, his first off the claim for Peter Walder. The last time the hardy five-year-old gelding won was July 2017. Minute Madness has some speed and may show early interest.

SIGHTFORSOREEYES may be winging it on the lead in a race that has little early speed. He sandwiched an allowance win at Thistledown between poor showings in the Vosburgh and Clark Handicaps. I’ve never seen a horse earn a late pace speed figure of “1” until I saw this guy’s past performances. There’s no place to go but up!

SELECTIONS

Did I mention there’s no confirmed pacesetter in here?  AUDIBLE could show speed from the rail, but Castellano will likely be content to track one of the long shots and take over in the stretch. Hard to look beyond him here, as his only losses have come in his debut and the Kentucky Derby, and he was third in both of those races.    

APOSTLE isn’t in Audible’s class – yet, but he’s starting to put it together, and there are no world beaters in this race. If for some reason Audible stubs a hoof, Apostle could be right there. 

SIR ANTHONY will be running late, and he’s been in the money eight of 13 lifetime.   

I’m not totally convinced that VILLAGE KING is a dirt horse. True, he got a triple-digit late pace speed figure in his last race, but it was painful to watch him stagger home in the 1 1/8 – mile race in 1:53. By comparison, Maximus Mischief’s final time in the Remsen was 1:51.34.

#1 AUDIBLE (2-5)

#5 APOSTLE (5-1)

#6 SIR ANTHONY (20-1)

#4 VILLAGE KING (4-1)

Handigambling

A short-priced favorite is beatable if there’s a chink in his armor.  We’ve seen overwhelming favorites come up short in the past, that’s why they run races. That being said, unless Audible is caught flat-footed coming out of the gate, is boxed in and can’t make a run, or just doesn’t feel like running, he’s the likely winner — no money to be made there.   

Either sit back and watch the race or toss your virtual ThoroFan funny money into a superfecta.

$4.00 Super box - #1, #5, #6, #4 = $96.00

The remaining $4 might get you a bottle of water or a program.

 

Handicapper's Corner: Los Alamitos Futurity (G1)

Baffert Aiming for Five Straight Futurity Wins

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The Los Alamitos Futurity (formerly known as the CashCall Futurity) is the last Grade One race of the year held for two-year-old colts, and the top four will earn points towards a berth in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. 

Since the race’s inception in 1981, 16 colts who hit the board in the Futurity have also run in the money in at least one of the Triple Crown races.  Six won the Kentucky Derby and three each the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. 2014’s Los Futurity hero Dortmund finished third in the 2015 Kentucky Derby.

Bob Baffert has dominated the Los Alamitos Futurity with a record ten victories and has won the last four editions of the 1 1/16-mile race.  This year, Baffert conditions two of the six contenders. IMPROBABLE and MUCHO GUSTO, are lightly raced undefeated stakes winners, both trained by Baffert, and will likely vie for betting favoritism.  

In the one mile Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs on Breeders’ Cup Friday, IMPROBABLE blew away a field of last out maiden winners by 7 1/4 lengths. The son of City Zip isn’t a need the lead type and can press or sit off the pace. The only drawback for the large Chestnut colt is the rail post and the potential of being blocked in by outside speed.

MUCHO GUSTO wired the field in both outings and was last seen defeating SAVAGERY and EXTRA HOPE in the seven-furlong Bob Hope Stakes (G3) at Del Mar. By Mucho Macho Man out of a daughter of Giant’s Causeway, Mucho Gusto should love the extra distance.

After wiring the field by 11 lengths in his maiden victory, SAVAGERY was dueled into submission by graded stakes placed Sparkyville in the Sunny Slope Stakes, then Mucho Gusto did same in the Bob Hope. This time around, trainer Peter Miller takes the blinkers off the son of Bellamy Road in hopes of getting him to relax, and Geroux Florent takes over from Bejarano.

After winning his maiden DUELING was tossed into the deep end of the kiddie pool in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The longshot ran pretty much as expected, checking in sixth, after being wide the entire way. The Hollendorfer trainee is back in a little bit easier spot and having Mike Smith as a pilot can’t hurt.

The late-running EXTRA HOPE found the Bob Hope Stakes a little too short and gets a chance to stretch back out to 1 1/6-miles. He and Dueling are the only colts in the field with experience at the distance. 

The ironically named KING OF SPEED is a one-run closer who, after a couple of bad beats on dirt at the beginning of his career, found success as a stakes-winning turf sprinter. This is clearly a “what is he thinking” moment for Jeff Bonde. Either that or the connections have caught an early case of Derby fever.

 Selections

78% of the races at Los Alamitos are won by pace setters or pressers, usually from the rail.  The blinkers off on Savagery may be an effort to get him to relax, and his sprint-oriented pedigree makes him vulnerable at the distance. That leaves Mucho Gusto as the lone early speed. Savagery and Improbable won’t be too far off the pace, with Dueling and Extra Hope right behind. King of Speed does his best running late.

I’m sensing a Baffert exacta unless one of his contenders stubs a hoof.

#1 IMPROBABLE (6-5)

#6 MUCHO GUSTO (3-1)

#3 DUELING (6-1)

HANDIGAMBING

Part of being a successful bettor is knowing when to skip a race. Neither of the early favorites seems to have weak spots, and there’s no logical longshot, except maybe for Dueling. Toss a couple of bucks on Dueling if you must bet and if the odds deem it worthwhile.