Handicapper's Corner: Haskell INV. Stakes (G1)

Strong Field May Mud Wrestle in Haskell Invitational

By: John Caro, S. FL. ThoroFan Member

This is one of the post Triple Crown races for three-year old with big bucks on the line. This year’s version has seven runners of which six have competed at the grade one level and the remaining contender is a two-time Grade III winning speedster. The problem for today’s race is the weather forecast, and it’s a doozy.  See the WC report here: https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/unusual-coastal-low-northeast-mid-atlantic-late-july

Rain and more rain is forecast for the weekend and this race is the 12^th of 14 on Sunday. Monmouth is a speed favoring track but, how they prepare it for the race may influence the results. 

I’m going to start with a colt who has been over the track, cruises at high speed and is two for two on the off track. Timeline (#3) C. Brown/Castellano – He won his last out here in the Grade III Pegasus on a fast track. Prior to that his two races were in the slop going a mile and then a mile and an eighth at very high speeds. This Hard Spud wonder trained by 2016 Eclipse Trainer Chad Brown is four for four lifetime and Castellano has been aboard for each one. There are others here with far more experience but, he will be tough to catch if he gets out of the gate well.

Irish War Cry (#1) G. Motion/Maragh – Being #1 is great in most cases but not here today. We know IWC loves to hit the lead and stay there. He can track the pace like he did in the Wood though I think he has more work to do today with speed immediately to his outside. The additional concern is the track conditions. He run in the KD over a wet track was not good after the second call. Maragh has been aboard for the last three, winning the Wood, disaster at Kentucky, Second in the Belmont. He training well and I’ve liked him all through the spring but I don’t see him as the winner today.

Practical Joke (#4) C. Brown/Rosario – He’s the only Grade I winner (twice as a two-year old) in the field. The problem is he wins going through one turn and seems to be missing something when going two turns. Having said that; he did fight well in the Bluegrass to get home second down the lane against a determined Irap. Can’t put my finger on it. He’s a fighter and I won’t leave him off my tickets.

Battle of Midway (#2) Hollendorfer/Prat – Speaking of fighters, what a wonderful display of guts in the KD in wet conditions. He’s never been out of the money in six tries. He likes it near the front and can be there to finish well. Prat has been on him twice to win, recently in the Grade III Affirmed Stakes. Not sure why he’s listed as 6^th for power ratings in the Bris but, they have their opinion and I have mine. He comes back off a layoff and wins going away, nice. Second off the layoff, I expect to see more. His ability to close well is a plus and the odds are right.

McCraken (#5) Wilkes/B. Hernandez Jr. – He’s coming off a win in the Grade III Matt Winn t Churchill with 43 days’ rest. I expect that will help as he had the same rest cycle coming out of the Derby. On paper, he doesn’t look fast but he’s a steady and got it done as a mid-pack closer five out of seven times. Brian H. has been aboard for each of his runs and he knows how to pace a race. The only down side is the track conditions. His daddy won over this track in the slop. His breeding suggests he can overcome a wet surface, he just hasn’t shown us yet. If the pace is just furious he will be in the money.

Girven (#7) J. Sharp/Albarado – Another who likes to be off the pace some to finish strong and is a three-time winner doing so. Other than the Derby he’s never been out of the exacta and he has nice odds today. He struggled during the Derby in wet conditions but the running line talks about him being roughed and in tight at the start. I think the traffic jam at the start and traffic in the last turn didn’t favor his running. This smaller field should not be a problem. Robby knows his business and I feel confident that he can find a way to get in the exacta.

Hence (#6) Asmussen/P. Lopez – This three-time winner seems to be a dead closer. His three wins al came from that scenario. This will be his second off a layoff and we could see some improvement after circling 5 wide to win the Iowa Derby. He does have a win over the slop, plus. The best thing going for this guy today is Paco Lopez riding at this track. Paco is 25% here with a 75% ITM history this year. The odds are incredible. 

Now how can we structure a winning bet that doesn’t cost a lot and might pay well? There are seven runners and we have a way to play a Trifecta that just does fit the situation.

A with B,C,D with All.

$5 Trifecta: 3 / 2,7,5 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,7     Total:  $75

$6 Exacta:  3/2,5,7,6     Total: $24

   

Handicapper's Corner: Jim Dandy Stakes (G2)

Classic Winners Showdown in Jim Dandy Stakes

 By Robert Marks, They're in the Gate (and on Twitter @theyreinthegate)

On Saturday, July 29, 2017 Saratoga Racetrack, the Summer Place to Be, will be host the Grade Two Jim Dandy Stakes for 3-year old’s. The purse is $600,000 and serves as a prep race for the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga in a month. We have a small field of horses but we also have this year’s Preakness Stakes winner and the Kentucky Derby winner.

Here are the participants listed by Post Positions, Horse, Jockey and odds:

1. Always Dreaming, K. John Velasquez, 1-1

2. Cloud Computing, Javier Castellano, 6-5
3. Giuseppe the Great, Luis Saez, 10-1
4. Pavel, Mario Guitteriez, 6-1
5. Good Samaritan, Joel Rosario, 12-1

Here is who we like:

Cloud Computing- The hot horse- this lightly raced colt has 2 wins out of 4 starts including the Preakness Stakes. Trainer Chad Brown chose to skip the Belmont Stakes so Cloud Computing comes into this race with a 2-month break. His workouts have been good and it looks like Chad has this horse ready. He has the higher speed numbers of the group, combine that with a rested horse and Chad Brown as your trainer and this becomes our Win pick.

Always Dreaming -This Todd Pletcher trained horse is your 2017 Kentucky Derby winner. Just like Cloud Computing, he too has been off since the Preakness. The pace scenario looks clear, both Always Dreaming and Cloud Computing figure to want the lead and I fully expect your leaders at the half mile to be Always Dreaming and Cloud Computing. Does any of the other 3 get these two late and of these two, who wins. I’m thinking after that Cloud Computing wins the battle and Always Dreaming will have to settle for place honors.

Giuseppe the Great-This is my lukewarm pick for the show spot. Of the 3 “other contenders” it hard for me to pick Pavel, win only 1 race under his belt, shipping cross country from California, to be in contention. As for Good Samaritan, longshot here at 12-1, this is his first dirt race after 6 Turf starts. The golden rule in my book is too never bet a horse to do something he never has before. This leaves the Nick Zito trained Giuseppe the Great as the show choice. His longest prior race has been the Grade 3 Dwyer at a mile and he weakened late, so he looks distance challenged. But I’m betting he has enough in the tank to outlast Pavel and Good Samaritan and hold on for 3^rd and at 10-1 that will help boost the trifecta payout.

Wagering/Betting Handigambling Bankroll: Here is our $80 worth of betting for the race

Exacta Box: $5 Exacta ($20)

1,2

Trifecta ($10 Box for $60 Total)

1,3,4

As always, watch the Board and if at the track watch how the horses look in the Paddock and adjust your bets accordingly. Good Luck!

Handicapper's Corner: Diana Stakes (G1)

The Diana Stakes - A Case Against Lady Eli

By: The Turk

Lady Eli- Equisport Photos

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I'd like to start by thanking The Thorofan and the Handicapper's Corner for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you today about The Diana, a Grade 1 affair run over 1 1/8 miles of the Mellon turf course at Saratoga.

Keep your eye on the scratches, changes and track condition.  With a six horse field, one scratch would be one too many.  Weather doesn't seem to be an issue at the Spa until
                                                                                       maybe Sunday.

\

At Saratoga, when analyzing your Past Performances, a T in a circle represents a race run on the Mellon or outer turf course.

A T in a square box represents an inner turf event.

As with any two turf course configuration, inner turf races have very tight corners and its different racing dynamics.  Take that into account when judging cross over horses from one track to the other.  You'll also note visually why you won't see many shorter sprints on this turf course, as it's hard to configure without placing the starting gate right on the 1st corner.

Are you a Saratoga watcher, a Del Mar watcher or both or some other combination over the summer meets?  I love Saratoga even if my ROI's are lower at Saratoga than most other courses.  I lived in Saratoga during the 1986 race season and I walked to the track from my house on Jumel Place.  I could have bought the little house for $70,000 from my landlord, and it recently sold for $450,000. My ROI off the racetrack in Saratoga isn't any better!

 As far as Del Mar,  I was very turned off by the former artificial surface.  It played horribly and I have yet to really come back.  It's not an East Coast/West Coast thing with me, in fact, as an East Coast Handicapper I use to play Santa Anita, Del Mar and Hollywood exclusively.   For me, I'm going to focus on Arlington Turf and Saratoga Turf and Dirt Routes, that's my summer plan.

Today's Diana is a six horse field with the mighty Lady Eli leading the way.  At $2.4 MM lifetime earnings, she towers over the rest of the field with 11 starts and 11 times in the money.  She's not unbeatable, and she will be bet hard and heavy on opening weekend,  Let's see if we can make a case against her. 
 

Lady Eli has finished in the Win or Place spot in every race in her 11 race career.  That's multiple Grade 1 competition.  When you watch her a beaten nose in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf at Santa Anita last year, how do you take anything away from her.

She followed that race up with a long break, a Place by a head in the Jenn Wiley  and then set a career high best Beyer of 104 in Gamely.  I think if this race is run 100 times she wins 90 of the 100 races.

  Gamely Stakes Grade 1:  1 1/8 Mile Hillside start on Santa Anita Firm Turf

 I look at the field and I wonder where pace pressure will come from.  I'm not sure it will and she may have the lead early and hold it.  I think that's the most likely scenario and from an overlay perspective, I'd have a hard time taking a position a against her, but the tote board will make that decision for me.  There are at least two legitimate candidates to beat her in this field.

Let's take a look at Antonoe and Dickerson:

  Just a Game Stakes Grade 1:  1 Mile Firm Turf at Belmont

Great trip and ride by Castellano, taking the rail when the rail opened late.  This was not some paceless fake Grade 1.  Watch the stride, watch the power.  Impressive win for Antonoe.  Trainer Chad Brown has a very impressive stable this year, and with Antonoe and Ladi Eli, he has an embarrassment of riches.  I would expect Antonoe will take one run at Lady Eli but lets not expect that sort of gift trip every race.  You have to respect the speed she showed on that late run.  I'm really floored watching that.  

Dickerson is a flawed but very talented 5 YO Medaglia d'Oro mare.  5 wins in 7 career turf starts. Three straight wins this spring, all graded stakes over routes of grass.  Not a great trip in the Just A Game, sent outside late, willingly up for Show and one more hop away from Place.  If I get 9/2 or 5-1 I'll be happy.

Jenny Wiley Grade 1:  1 1/16 Miles on Firm Turf at Keeneland  

Quidora (GB) has class, but her class won't win this.  She had a nice stalking trip in the Grade 2 New York but I didn't think she really got rolling until 1 3/16ths.  

New York Stakes Grade 2: 1 1/4 Miles on Firm Turf at Belmont

She's cutting back 1/8 of a mile.  Watch her here over soft turf at 1 1/16 miles in a big field at Keeneland, the Grade 3 Valley View.  

My Impression hasn't really made an impression on me, and I'm more impressed with her connections than anything she's done on the track.   Training nicely and coming in off an effort at PARX on July 4th,  winless in 4 starts in 2017 for Trainer McGaughey, with Ortiz up for owner Stuart Janney III.  The trainer/jockey were 21% together last SAR meet.  5 Wins in 13 turf starts. Unless things go really upside down its hard to imagine anything but a minor Exotic prize.

I've tossed 4 Year Old Harmonize.  You can't cover everyone, but Bill Mott is a hard one to just discount.  While today's field is small, this is a classy group, including this daughter of Scat Daddy.  It's hard to believe the Florida Derby and excellent sire Scat Daddy is gone, may he rest in peace.

Antonoe-NYRA Susie Raisher

So what do we do with this?  As I write this on Thursday night, I take stock of what I know:

The Turf should be firm.

The Course should be in good shape.

A six horse field with Harmonize and My Impression long shots and not very live.

I'd expect the tote board ranking will be Lady Eli, Antonoe, Dickerson, Quidora in that order.

I'm not sure where pace will come from.  This is a pretty similar group of running style horses.  Is it as simple as Lady Eli going gate to wire?  I think that's a strong possibility.  Who will take late run and who has best late turn of foot?  I like what I've seen in a limited body of work from Antonoe.

I'm not sure what I'm going to bet yet, but whatever I do, I'm going to keep the risk/reward quotient realistic.

Have fun friends.  Do your own handicapping and bypass the tip sheets.

Turk Out!

Handicapper's Corner Delaware Handicap (G1)

Songbird Ready to Fly in Delaware 'Cap

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

Delaware Handicap (G1), fillies and mares, three-year-olds and up, one and one quarter miles on the dirt, post time 5:30pm EST

Originally dubbed the New Castle Handicap in 1937, this race was stretched to its current mile and a quarter distance in 1951, and took its current name in 1955.  It has always been restricted to the distaff division, and over its years has produced some illustrious winners.  Its first year at a mile and a quarter Busanda won; Busanda remains a stakes namesake at Aqueduct, and she produced champion and Hall of Fame inductee Buckpasser.  Coincidentally, a horse who joined Buckpasser at the top of the three-year-old division in 1966 was also produced by a Delaware Handicap winner – Graustark was out of Flower Bowl (1956), a mare for whom a Grade 1 at Belmont is still conducted.  More recently, champions like Blind Luck (2011) and Royal Delta (2012, 2013) have graced the winners’ circle in the Delaware Handicap.

A day will likely come when it makes sense to bet against Songbird...at least in the eyes of this bullheaded longshot player.  But, even when the nation’s premier dirt distaffer gives anywhere between nine and thirteen pounds to her foes, this is not that time.  Rick Porter, the principal of Fox Hill Farm, hails from Wilmington, Delaware, making this a homecoming of sorts.  And, try as the Delaware Park racing office certainly must have tried to lure someone over who could make a race of it?  That didn’t quite happen.  Weep No More is a Grade 1 winner, yes, but has not seen hit the board in five starts since that stunner in the Ashland over a year ago.  Miss Mo Kelly and Martini Glass have some bits of listed stakes form.  Line of Best Fit and Hone In have occasionally tried stakes company, but have yet to make it in black-type company.

In other words?  If you insist upon playing the Delaware Handicap, you will want to play exotics.  Songbird will pay five cents on the dollar in the win pool...and yet, that almost makes sense, as a humdrum effort by Songbird (to the extend that she is capable of humdrum) would still be good enough to eclipse a strong effort by any of her five foes.  If she hadn’t tried a mile and a quarter, perhaps there would be a question.  But, she won the Alabama (G1) last year at the same distance, and should be able to tackle it again.

So, who’s the best of the rest?

Line of Best Fit has not tried stakes company since 2013, but she is in career form at the age of seven.  She has won three of four starts this year in allowance-optional company at Penn National and Parx.  The last two wins came with Edwin Gonzalez in the irons; Gonzalez returns today.  Of course, this is a large step up from that.  But, she won her only start over the Delaware course, back in May of last year.  Her connections, trainer Kieron Magee and rider Edwin Gonzalez, have both been solid at Delaware this summer.  From a race shape perspective, Line of Best Fit is best coming from just a little off the pace.  Songbird likely takes the front-end initiative, but Line of Best Fit should be able to chase her all the way around for second.

Long shot Hone In’s recent form is not much to look at.  Trainer Victoria Oliver has been running her on the turf over and over again, despite her having finished on the board just once in eight starts on the grass.  Her form has been better over the dirt, which she returns to here.  Two starts back, she won an allowance at Indiana Grand in the slop, so the possible rain in the forecast for Saturday will not hurt her. If the course is dry (which is a bit more likely)?  She has good races over a dry track as well; she’s not just a slop monster.  The distance is a question, as she has never gone a mile and a quarter before.  But, being by Smart Strike out of a Tiznow mare, she has plenty of stamina influence close up in her pedigree.  There’s enough to like about Hone In, as the likely longest shot on the board, to play her underneath in the Delaware Handicap.

Selections:

#5 Songbird (1/5)

#4 Line of Best Fit (12/1)

#6 Hone In (15/1)

 

Handicapper's Corner Belmont Derby Inv. (G1)

Yoshida Tough to Overlook in Belmont Derby Invitational

 By: Reinier Macatangay, Thoughts on Racing, Life and More

Accepting the value on a horse like Yoshida in the $1.2 million Belmont Derby (GI) on Saturday can be tough for bettors. For starters, the 3-year-old son of Heart’s Cry (JPN) is trained by the legendary Bill Mott for Winstar Farm. The public favors certain connections.

Plus with such enormous talent displayed in his last two starts, people will notice Yoshida's actual ability too.

For instance, the 3-year-old son of Heart’s Cry (JPN) recently took the James W. Murphy Stakes with devastating ease. And he did this despite a poor break where he was pinched by his stall neighbors and had to start the race from last place. He bulled his way through. 

The winning margin of four lengths is also superb. As for why, it is because horses cannot win turf races in a blowout fashion most of the time. A margin of a few lengths on grass is equal to a lot more on dirt, while the majority of other turf races end up in a clustered mess. 

Yoshida also broke his maiden by four lengths using early speed to wire them at Keeneland. At Pimlico, he came from last. Both wins indicate the young talent can adapt well.

As pointed out above though, do not expect any kind of value on Yoshida. This is the kind of horse bettors will pound at the windows, to possibly below 2-1. But he does look great.

Other handicappers will look towards the two European invaders from the Aidan O'Brien barn, Homesman and Whitecliffsofdover. Ironically, both horses are American-bred.  

The former is a Group 3 winner in Ireland. He gave the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot a chance and closed okay for fifth. It did not appear he made a huge impact on the race.

Meanwhile, the latter horse Whitecliffsofdover is a royally-bred son of War Front. His second dam is a full sister to the well-known sire Pulpit, who is a son of A.P. Indy. The A.P. Indy line is not generally known as a great list of turf influences, but most of them can run long.

Can Whitecliffsofdover go from seven furlongs to 1 1/4 miles? It is a valid question, despite the pedigree. At least, O’Brien applies Lasix to both and is experienced at shipping here.

Going down the list of probable winners, the rail horse Good Samaritan and Ticonderoga deserve consideration off their second and third-place finishes in the Pennine Ridge (GIII).

The Pennine Ridge winner Oscar Performance, who also competes in this race, got away with a relatively easy and uncontested lead. Good Samaritan and Ticonderoga had little chance after the half went in 49 and the six-furlong split went in 1:14. Both of them closed well.

For a crazier pick, give Makarios a glance over at 30-1. Yes, this big Nick Zito-trained colt lost the Pennine Ridge by five lengths, but the jockey never had a chance to tip out on the turn. With a little more breathing room, he could blow up the trifecta like at Keeneland. 

Nevertheless, the race runs through the promising Yoshida. He either will live up to the hype or go down against tougher competition in this spot. 


$100 Handigambling
$30 Win - Yoshida
$20 Exactas - Yoshida / Homesman, Whitecliffsofdover
$15 Exactas - Yoshida / Good Samaritan, Ticonderoga
(If Yoshida really becomes pounded in exotics though, just watch the race.)

Handicapper's Corner: Belmont Oaks Inv. (G1)

Belmont Oaks: Brown's Quartet Ready to Run

By: Michael Mills, ThoroFan 

Welcome to the Chad Brown Invitational. Not only does Brown have four fillies entered, but he has won the Belmont Oaks Invitational 4 of the past 5 years. Twelve three year old fillies will go to the post:  

1) Coasted...can run a big one as evidence by her second in the Breeders Cup last fall, but seems a step below the top fillies in here. Trainer is 0-20 in graded stakes this year.  

2) Beau Recall...west coast invader has to be thrilled not lining up against Sircat Sally as that one has had her number each of the past three starts. Nothing against Prat but find it interesting that Talamo doesn't come with her for a run at a million dollar purse. 

 3) Violet Blue...big step up from MSW to a Grade I. The distance seems to fit but wrong race.  

4) Grizzel...winner of two straight but the class jump and added distance don't looking promising. 

5) Key To My Heart...comes in from Ireland for Aidan O'Brien who is one of the best in race. Some give in the ground may help but not for our top spot. 

6) Journey Home...well bred filly should enjoy the extra distance presented her but she just doesn't look fast enough.  

7) Uni...top connections all around and working well but would be surprised to see this one being the best of the Brown runners. 

8) New Money Honey...nothing wrong with the title Breeders Cup Champion next to your name. Appears to be ready to make her presence felt. 2 for 2 on the Belmont green.  

9) Dynatail....should be on the lead, but I project she will have company to keep her honest.  

10) Fifty Five...Solid New York Bred will be in the mix coming for home but don't think the last 1/8 of a mile will be kind to her.  

11) Daddys Lil Darling...improving and appears by the recent morning runs to be ready for a big one. The questions are the surface and the distance.  

12) Sistercharlie....The French import for Brown appears to be a good one. Should get the distance but the question is will she take to the Belmont green. 

Projecting a faster pace than most forecasters, that is if the course stays on the firm side. #8 New Money Honey appears to be the best of the Brown fillies, with #12 Sistercharlie next, followed by #7 Uni and #10 Fifty Five. So the winner has to come from that group correct? 

 

Most likely it will, but we are going to take a flyer with #11 Daddys Lil Darling. While there are the surface and distance questions, her last effort was huge. She seems to be a filly on the improve and we know when McPeek has one ready he will find a good spot for them to have a chance to succeed even though it may look as he is reaching to high (ie Golden Ticket's Travers win).

The Play: $30 Win #11 $40 Place #11 $1 Tri 11/7-8-12/2-5-6-7-8-10-12 ($18) $1 Tri 7-8-12/11/2-5-6-7-8-10-12 ($18) Total Wager $106 

Have A Day!