Handicapper's Corner: 2016 Breeders' Cup

ThoroFan Racing Analysts' 2016 Picks

The collective minds of ThoroFan's racing analysts offer their top two picks plus their longshot bomb for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and Classic.

  

Additionally, the handicappers preview other races on the card, starting with tomorrow’s Marathon Stakes (G2).   

Check back on FRIDAY for reviews and race selections of the Juvenile Fillies, Juvenile Colts, Breeders’ Cup Turf and Breeders’ Cup Mile.

2016 BC DISTAFF
Handicapper	First	Second	Longshot
Michael Amo	Stellar Wind	Forever Unbridled	Curalina
Nick Costa	Songbird	Stellar Wind	I’m a Chatterbox
John Caro	Songbird	Stellar Wind	Forever Unbridled
Reinier Macatangay	Stellar Wind	Songbird	I’m a Chatterbox
Robert Marks	Songbird	Stellar Wind	Curalina
Nicolle Neulist	Stellar Wind	Beholder	Forever Unbridled
Laurie Ross	Stellar Wind	Songbird	Corona Del Inca

2016 BC CLASSIC
Handicapper	First	Second	Longshot
Michael Amo	Frosted	California Chrome	Hopportunity
Nick Costa
John Caro	California Chrome	Frosted	Melatonin
Reinier Macatangay	California Chrome	Arrogate	Keen Ice
Robert Marks	Arrogate	California Chrome	Shaman Ghost
Nicolle Neulist	California Chrome	Arrogate	Shaman Ghost
Laurie Ross	California Chrome	Hopportunity	Effinex

ThoroFan S. Florida Chapter Member’s thoughts:

Marathon Stakes (GII), three-year-olds and up, one and three quarters miles over the dirt, post time 12:35pm PDT

  

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

Though the Marathon has not carried the imprimatur of the Breeders’ Cup since 2013, the fourteen-furlong gallop over the dirt maintains its Grade II status as well as its spot on the Breeders’ Cup Friday card.  This year’s edition drew a field of nine runners to compete for a $200,000 purse.  As is typical for the Marathon, that field includes both runners well proven at a stayer’s distance as well as ones whose connections are trying them at such a trip.

Melmich is well proven going long, and this space will side with the Canadian raider.  He has a win at the same mile and three quarters distance as this race, in last year’s Valedictory Stakes (GIII - CAN) at Woodbine.  That came on polytrack, and most of his career form has come over synthetic surfaces.  But, Melmich acquitted himself well last out in the Temperence Hill Invitational at Belmont, his first try over conventional dirt.  That day, he finished second beaten three lengths by Scuba.  He was gaining, but the extra furlong should suit the long-winded Melmich beautifully.  Melmich is fast enough, has stamina to spare, and has the versatility to set the fractions or rally from off of them.  With several in this field who can show speed but do not need it, it helps that regular rider Eurico Rosa Da Silva has the versatility to read the pace as it unfolds and depend on Melmich no matter where he has to put him.

Scuba beat Melmich last out in the Temperence Hill.  That thirteen-furlong trip was the longest that Scuba had covered to date; he won by daylight, though Melmich was closing up ground.  Scuba has blossomed since stretching out to longer distances; before the Temperence Hill, Scuba scored in the mile and a half Greenwood Cup at Parx.  Rider Kendrick Carmouche has been aboard for both of those victories; he returns today.  Scuba will be forwardly placed, though can also rate if he needs, and stay interested if he does not make the top.  Scuba also hails from the barn of Brendan Walsh: a trainer who already has a Marathon Stakes (GII) victory two years ago with Cary Street.  Whether he can stay the extra half-furlong better than Melmich is the big question, but Scuba has hit the board in each of his last twelve starts, and has blossomed as Walsh has stretched him out longer.

The third slot was a close call between Hard Aces and Quick Casablanca.  Quick Casablanca has a win going fourteen furlongs on grass, and has hit the board in four of five starts over fast dirt.  But, he has not raced since mid-August, and trainer Ron McAnally is not the best first-off-the-lay.  Instead, the slight edge goes to Hard Aces.  His connections have been pointing him here, and he gets a huge class drop from the likes of California Chrome in his last two starts.  Three back, he won the Cougar II (GIII) at Del Mar, a mile and a half dirt test.  Hard Aces has not yet stretched to a mile and three quarters, but has been working long enough to suggest that John Sadler is building his fitness.  And, his class stands out.

Selections:

#4 Melmich (2/1)

#1 Scuba (5/2)

#8 Hard Aces (4/1)

Longshot:  Like Scuba, #3 Estrechada (12/1) comes from a barn proven in this race.  She is trained by Guillermo Frenkel-Santillan, the same conditioner who brought Calidoscopio from Argentina to the United States to win the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Marathon.  She keeps Pablo Falero, her frequent rider in Argentina.  And, Estrechada has some solid form going (very) long on dirt.  She won at a mile and nine sixteenths last November at Palermo, and a second at the same distance there the next month.  Though she is a mare facing boys, she typically faced boys in Argentina as well.  Estrechada has some versatility in terms of pace, as well: she can go to the front, stalk the pace, or rally from midpack.  She does have a few questions around her: this will be a class test for her, and she has not raced since June.  But, Estrechada has been working at Santa Anita since September, and should be a good enough price to bet she can take the class rise.