Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Arkansas Derby (G1)

 Coal Battle vs. Cornucopian in Arkansas Derby

By: Robert Marks, X: @theyreinthegate

 

All eyes will be on 3-year-olds in the $1.5 million Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. They will vie for crucial points to get into the Kentucky Derby. A point scale of 100-50-25-15-10 will be awarded to the top five in this nine-horse field.  

The 1 1/8 mile event is spotlighted as race 13 of 14, on a stakes-filled day. Post time for the Arkansas Derby is 6:48 PM CT. 

 

Here is who we like:

The favorite is Cornucopian at 7-5 morning line odds, trained by Bob Baffert with John Velazquez the Jockey.  Some say those odds will be beaten down to 3-5 come post time. Maybe he wins going away, but there is no way I will bet a horse in a Derby prep race at 3-5. There is no value in betting horses at these low odds; if you did so regularly, your bankroll would suffer.

Plus, I’m not comfortable betting a horse coming off one start - a 6-furlong Maiden winner at Oaklawn Park a month ago. Yes, he won impressively and his pedigree, sired by Into Mischief and Magical World, the dam, suggests he can get the distance, but maybe it takes him a race or two to win that route race.  Pace-wise, coming out of the ninth post position, I expect John Velazquez to push him to the front immediately, and he will be your early leader.  I’ll throw him in my exotics but throw him out of any win bets.

Coal Battle (7-2) trained by elder Statesman Lonnie Briley, is a feel-good story. He comes off 4 straight wins and is 5-5 on dirt surfaces, including the last 3 at Oaklawn Park. He has done it all thus far, winning on the pace and off the pace, winning in front as well as trailing. On paper, he’s a bit slow to win it all, but he already has 2 wins at 1 1/16 and one at a mile, so the distance is not an issue.  He should be sitting just off the leaders coming into the final stretch. We think his odds will stay close to 7-2, and this is our top pick to win it all.  Juan Vargas, aboard him for all 7 starts, gets the mount.

Sandman (3-1) trained by Mark Casse, also comes off a third-place finish behind Coal Battle and Madakat Road in the Rebel Stakes last time out. Distance will not be an issue with three races under his belt at 1 1/16 miles. He always gallops out well. I think this horse might be perfect for the mile and a quarter route, should he get to the Derby.  There is also a rider change to consider from Cristian Torres to Jose Ortiz.  Look for Ortiz to sit this horse mid-pack and make his move late in the stretch. He lost last time out to Coal Battle, so what makes you think he beats him this time? Maybe the distance favors Sandman but thinking the plucky Coal Battle holds him off.

First Division, (20-1) Trained by Kenny McPeak, comes off a second-place finish in a 1 1/16 Optional Claimer race at Oaklawn Park.  Not the fastest horse on paper but has run 2 nice distance races after his 6-furlong maiden win in January. If anyone can pick his spots to race a horse it's Kenny McPeak. By Omaha Beach, we could see First Division passing horses late if the pace is too fast and collapses late. Watch his odds come post time, but he is worth putting in your exotics.

Analysis

This will be an interesting race pace-wise. It looks pretty fast with good early pace. We think Cornucopian is the early leader with Speed King sitting behind him. Coal Battle and Sandman should both be mid-pack pack with both making late stretch moves.  We hope to hit a Trifecta Boxing our four highlighted horses.

A win bet on Coal Battle at 3-1 or higher odds is good value. As always, watch the horses in the paddock and the odds as post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.

Handigambing

$100 dollar Budget

$50-win Coal Battle

$2 Trifecta Box: Coal Battle, Sandman, Cornucopian, First Division (total bet $48)

$2 Longshot pick: First Division

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Louisiana Derby (G2)

 Digging for Gold in the Louisiana Derby

By: MaryJo Moncheski, Instagram @RacingWithJoJo  

 

The Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Racetrack looks to be a tough race with many early speed duelers with the most hyped contenders, Trainer Brad Cox’s John Hancock, and D. Wayne Lukas’ Caldera. 

 

Saturday's Louisiana Derby is highlighted as race 12 of 13 with a 5:42 PM CT post time. 

 

 

 

I am not one to follow the crowd and enjoy looking for horses that have the most potential to beat the chalk AND pay me a price. My picks for today will be 2-5-1-6. My background is in Horse Judging so let’s break it down Horse Judging Style.

 

 Top Pair: 2 over 5

#2 Chunk of Gold with Fair Grounds mainstay Jockey Jareth Loveberry and Trainer Ethan West. With the speed favoring 1-4-5-6-7-8, I looked for a horse that has the speed to compete but most potential to win as a closer. He is a little out of my “rested” criteria with a $43 payout last time out. I like them to be rested between 30-60 days, have speed, and $4.80 or less last time out. This is an angle that has done pretty well for me. However, with only three races and coming in second to Magnitude in his last race, I will give him a pass. He kept up with the distance. I don’t think another half furlong will be a detriment with him being a presser and a closer. Lastly, Chunk of Gold has experience in a G2 class.

#5 Caldera with Jockey Tyler Gaffalione fits within my rested angle with several bullet workouts. This horse has gotten better with every race increasing his Beyer speed figure each time. It’s still a question mark as to why Trainer Lukas shipped him to Sunland; however, we’ll just believe it was a prep for today. He’s had 4 starts with 1 win and 2 seconds, not too shabby. He is moving up in class, which puts him below #2 Chunk of Gold.

Bottom Pair: 1 over 6

#1 John Hancock will be the heavy favorite, especially after so many anticipated his run in the Colonial Downs Derby. I really want to believe this horse can win three in a row, but like Caldera, he has to overcome the bump in class. Jockey Flavian Prat can get him the speed needed to win; however, will he be able to get him to the front where he likes to sit? We shall see. #5 Caldera just has a little more in Past Performances for me than John Hancock for the competition in this race.

#6 Built rounds out the Superfecta with Jockey Jose Ortiz. He gave a good effort behind Chunk of Gold in the G2 Risen Star; however, Magnitude couldn’t be matched by anyone. While he also fits my rested angle, he just doesn’t have enough consistent Beyer speed for me to place him higher. I do like that he came back in form after a 60+ day layoff with a 92 Beyer in the Gun Runner Stakes, then lost by a neck in the Lecomte in slop. In a duel to the front, I think he will tire before John Hancock and Caldera.

Handigamble:

$10 win: 2

$2 exacta box: 2-5

.50 trifecta box: 2-5-1

Feeling lucky .10 superfecta box: 2-5-1-6

Total: $19.40

 

Born and raised in St. Louis, MO, MaryJo Moncheski currently resides in Indianapolis, IN. MaryJo have been an equestrian for 33 years and involved in various sectors of the Equine Industry. Horse Racing has been in the background of her life as her Grandpa Eddie owned a racehorse at Fairmont Park in St. Louis during the 1970s and 80s. He was a handicapper, too.

 

Beyond participating in handicapping contests, she never grows tired of connecting to people and understanding their role in the industry with every track she visits. There is something magical about horse racing- maybe it’s the familiar smells and sounds of the barn, the collective energy of people who love horses (all things horses), or even the mental stimulation of horseplaying (Equine Chess, as she calls it), but it feels like home to her. Recently, to share her passion, enthusiasm, and positive narratives about the industry, she created an Instagram @RacingWithJoJo. Please be sure to give her a follow!