Handicappers Corner: Building a case in the 2024 Lecomte Stakes (G3)

 Building a case in the Lecomte Stakes

By: Robert Marks, @theyreinthegate

It will be cold for most of the country, but one place fairly warm will be New Orleans, Louisiana, where a 2025 Kentucky Derby Prep, the Lecomte Stakes, will run on Saturday. Crucial qualifying points (20-10-6-4-2 to the top 5) will be awarded in this large 14-horse field.

The favorite is Built, at 3-1 morning lines odds, trained by Wayne Catalano with Jareth Loveberry the Jockey. He comes off a win in the Gun Runner Stakes, and if he runs to that speed figure again, he will be tough to beat. Likes to go out fast, but that might be a bit tricky coming out of post 13. Sired by Hard Spun, speed is in the bloodlines. His Gun Runner Stakes was over the same distance, so the route should not be a problem. Barring traffic issues, your likely winner.

Innovator (10-1) trained by legendary elder Statesman D. Wayne Lukas is interesting. He comes off a Maiden win over 6 furlongs at Oaklawn Park, his seventh race. He will try to stretch out and run two turns for the first time. He will be coming out of post position 1, and the rail post has hit at a 29%-win rate this meet, which is a very impressive stat. On paper, he is a bit slow to win it all, but he came off a bullet workout last Saturday, and Lukas has success running at the Fair Grounds. We wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes in the money. Jamie Torres gets the mount, having ridden him once to a second-place finish 2 races ago.

Magnitude (6-1) trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, also comes off a second-place finish behind Built in the Gun Runner Stakes last time out. Before that won impressively in a Mile and 1/16^th race at Churchill Downs. He will be ridden by Jose Ortiz, who has piloted two wins and three placings in last seven rides for Asmussen. Had a bullet workout on the sixth at The Fair Grounds. Should be pressing the pace early and seems to have the stamina and seasoning to be there at the end.

Admiral Dennis, (8-1) Trained by Brad Cox, comes off a poor Gun Runner Stakes where he stumbled out of the gate, finishing fourth. Broke his maiden at a mile distance and is sired by Constitution out of a Tapit mare, so the distance should not be a problem. Brad Cox is hot, winning at a 30%-win rate over his last 33 races. Looks like a versatile type who can run mid-pack and go when jockey Joel Rosario tells him to do so. Watch the board; if he stays at his morning line odds of 8-1, he is a must-use.

If you want to land on a longshot, why note Mobetterthangood (20-1), who broke his Maiden first time out on the final weekend at Saratoga but has not raced since. He is trained by Kenny McPeek, who is a master at placing his horses in the right spot.

Summary

This will be an interesting race pace-wise. Looks to be pretty fast with a good early pace.

We think Innovator out the one hole sets the pace with Magnitude and Admiral Dennis sitting behind him.

Built, barring any traffic issues, should be sitting mid-pack waiting on the Jock decision to move at the last turn.

If Admiral Dennis bows out we like the other Brad Cox entry, Disco Time. Undefeated in 2 starts with a strong speed figure last time out at a mile at Churchill Downs, he’s done nothing wrong but did get out a step slow, which in this big field is an issue of concern. Nevertheless, Disco Time should be in your exotics.

Handigambling

We will hope to kit a Trifecta Boxing with our 4 highlighted horses. As always, watch the Horses in the Paddock and the odds as Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$50-win Built

$2Trifecta Box: Built, Innovator, Admiral Dennis (or Disco Time), Magnitude (total bet $48)

$2 Longshot pace: Mobetterthangood

Handicapper's Corner: Looking for Value in 2024 Ginger Brew Stakes

 Looking for value in the Ginger Brew Stakes

By: Stuart Marc DeVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

I’m sure all the birthday parties for the horses are done and cleaned up. 

The newly turned three-year-old fillies take the stage at Gulfstream on Saturday under forecasted ideal conditions to go one mile on the sod. 

A full field of 11 with an also eligible signed up to get things started in a division that offers lucrative opportunities as the year progresses. The $165,000 listed Ginger Brew Stakes closes the day as race 11 with a 5:22 PM ET post time.

Here’s the field:

1.   Smile Po 30-1 – Has a few wins on the synthetic, but her effort, albeit with trouble on the turf, was less than what it will take to beat these. PASS.

2.   Love Cervere 10-1 – Top connections send out the NY maiden winner. In that race, she had a bit of an awkward beginning but got her feet, caught a split and started to separate late. She can certainly progress from that effort as her Thorograph number is competitive with these. OUTSIDE CHANCE.

3.   Fixin to Be 15-1 – Looked all out to break maiden at KEE and then took a shot on the dirt in the Golden Rod G2 to no avail. Luis Saez sees fit to ride, but Fixin to Be’s last two jockeys ride others, which is not a great sign. PASS.

4.   Correto 8-1 – Was 3^rd in the Ms. Grillo G2 right before the  Breeder’s Cup Juvi Filly Turf, where she chased a fast pace that collapsed. That said, she did hold reasonably well, only beaten 5 lengths in the end. That’s extra credit in my book. CONTENDER.

5.   Hello Hello Hello 30-1 – Would have to show more on speed figures and company kept to contend. Her two fastest races were off the turf and won by open lengths. You would get paid if she won. I would not. PASS.

6.   Disco Star 10-1 – Mark Casse’s “other” entrant ran fast, breaking her maiden against NY Breds in October. In that race, Dylan Davis, who rides today, piloted her on a sustained wide run after an awkward stumble at the break. She destroyed lesser rivals and passed the eye test for sure. Don’t sleep on her. CONTENDER.

7.   Special Aviator 12-1 – She’s done nothing wrong for her trainer Rohan Crichton. Two starts and two victories, with one coming in an overnight stake over the track. She seems light on speed figures but could improve, I suppose. I need to see more. PASS.

8.   Civetta 3-1 – Leading rider Irad Ortiz Jr. rides back after winning the Wait A While with this Brendan Walsh trained filly. She had an absolutely perfect trip and then held off 33-1 rival Winning Streep, whom she faces again today. If you like one, you have to like the other. I feel this is a good favorite to go against, as I don’t like betting perfect-trip winners coming back at short prices. If she is in the money, I am not. TOSS.

9.   Forward Deployed 15-1 – This Chad Brown runner for Flanagan Racing was dismissed at 12-1 when she broke her maiden off the layoff last month. She’s back on short rest but seemed to have more in the tank that day, and it would surprise no one that a Chad Brown runner won a stake off a maiden win 2^nd out, would it? I suspect she will be lower than the morning line of 15-1. Juicy. CONTENDER.

10.Nitrogen 5-2 – Mark Casse’s “main entrant” closed strongly into the fast pace of the Breeder’s Cup Juvi Fillies Turf grabbing the show dough. She saved ground from the inside and caught tired foes, but she was only beaten 2.5 lengths by the monster Lake Victoria. She has the credentials to be favored with 2 G1 placing. I also find it interesting that Jose Ortiz shows up in town for this. He is destroying the Fair Ground jockey colony and sees fit to visit his brother for the weekend and ride here. CONTENDER.

11.Winning Streep 10-1 – Lost a neck to the morning line second choice in last, Civetta. Ran a good race at a big price. I get the feeling that last time was the time. TOSS.

12.Good Long Cry 8-1 – Johnnie V picks up the mount for George Weaver as Irad sticks with Civetta. This gal seems to be improving as she seems to have learned to rate and finish. Early in her six-start career, Good Long Cry seemed headstrong, but now she waits and finishes. I wish she had a better post, but previously, she has performed well from the outside. Her speed figures are improving as well. CONTENDER.

Summary

In this bulky field, I am not willing to take the favorites in Nitrogen and Civetta. While they both fit on speed figures and connections, they both exit very favorable trips. Why do they have to get that again today? 

That said, I’d like to take Good Long Cry as a top choice, but she’s marooned in the outside box. I can make a case for Forward Deployed on connections and potential upside. 

Disco Star beat up on much lesser and is doing a few new things such as stretching out and running in open stakes company.   

The same things can be said for Love Cervere. Finally, Correto has the class, was up against it last time, and may just get the trip. 

The Bet (Based on $100)

Since I feel this is a wide-open race and I don’t care for the shorter-priced horses, I will do some exacta boxes hoping to catch some longshots. 

I will key on both the 4 & 12

$6 exacta box 4, 12, 9  = 36

$5 exacta box 4,12, 6 = 30

$4 exacta part wheel 4,12 with 4, 6, 9, 12 = 24

Good luck!

 

Handicaper's Corner: White Abarrio vs. the rest in 2024 Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3)

 White Abarrio vs. the rest in Mr. Prospector (G3)

 By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

Saturday’s Grade 3 seven-furlong Mr. Prospector Stakes at Gulfstream Park lured a dozen contenders ages three and older.

The seven-furlong contest is named for the brilliant yet fragile Mr. Prospector, who set two track records, including six furlongs in 1:07 4/5 at Gulfstream, only two-fifths of a second off the American record.

 

Despite an abbreviated racing career of 14 starts, Mr. Prospector became a cornerstone of modern breeding worldwide. His bloodlines are found in multiple instances in each contender of this year’s race named in his honor.

Fast forward to Saturday’s event, the Mr. Prospector Stakes is featured as race 10 on an 11-race card, with a 4:51 PM ET post time.

Let’s review the most likely suspects to hit the board.

10. White Abarrio (3-5) stands head and withers above this herd as the only Grade 1 winner in the field. After a brief freshening, the Saffie Joseph, Jr. trainee made short work of Allowance sprinters here, destroying the field by ten lengths. Although the pretty gray horse uses the Mr. Prospector as a prep for the Pegasus International, this is his race to lose. Win Contender.

A winner of five of his six starts in Chile, 6. Mufasa (CHI) (9-2) needed a start under his girth in his U.S. debut. Once he got his feet under him, the Ignacio Correas IV trainee dominated Allowance class at Colonial Dows and the Vosburgh (G3) at Aqueduct by a combined eight lengths. Mufasa wasn’t ready to face the best in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He couldn’t gain his regular pace pressing position and was rank, ultimately finishing a dozen lengths behind Full Serrano (ARG). Mufasa posted two sharp works at Gulfstream, including a pre-race 5-furlong bullet. Mufasa recorded a 104 Brisnet late-pace figure in the Vosburgh, and a return to that form makes him a serious threat if White Abarrio stubs a hoof. Contender.

A $500,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase, 9. Illuminare (10-1) has been brought along conservatively by Todd Pletcher. The 3-year-old son of City of Light easily captured three of four starts by a combined 8 3/4 lengths. His only loss was a fourth-place finish as the beaten favorite in the 7-furlong Harrods Creek Stakes at Churchill after a two-month layoff. Illuminare has been firing bullets at four and five furlongs at Palm Beach Downs like a machine gun, and his last two breezes were in tandem with Gordian Knot. Illuminare received a gaudy 103 Brisnet rating in his last start, and his 104 late-pace figure is a point lower than the field’s highest set by White Abarrio. He’s a pace presser/setter and may keep Super Chow company on the lead. Exotics.

1. Playmea Tune (15-1) hopes to transfer his form to dirt and add a half-furlong. He’s a player in the allowance/Grade 3 category at Woodbine and has decent Brisnet speed ratings in the 90’s. Jose Carroll gave Playmea Tune a second-to-last 4-furlong bullet breeze in 47.75 at Palm Meadows. Breaking from the rail, Playmea Tune may tailgate the early pace and be in the exotics mix.

Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez pair up with 4. Gordian Knot (15-1), who is making his first start for the barn. According to Race Lens, over the last five years, Pletcher has had a 50% win and 75% in the money rating, with dirt sprinters making their first start for the barn after the trainer switch. Since 2020, four horses have fit the profile, and all four finished in the superfecta, with three at Gulfstream. Gordian Knot is a six-time stakes winner against lesser company at PARX, Presque Isle Downs, and placed in stakes at Laurel and Delaware Park. His sole foray to Gulfstream resulted in a sixth-place finish, but it was his first start as a 3-year-old and Gordian Knot reeled off three straight after that. Gordian Knot has been keeping company with Illuminare in the mornings and out-worked that one on December 13. The move into graded company is suspect, but this large, long-striding gelding is worth a look to hit the lower exotics as a live longshot.  

3. Super Chow (20-1) is a confirmed pacesetter who has hit the board in 18 of 22 lifetime starts. He loves Gulfstream and has finished in the money in all six attempts here. The Jorge Delgado trainee also hit the board in all four tries at seven furlongs. The two-time Grade 3 winner hopes to break through after a trio of fourth-place finishes in lesser stakes. His late-pace figures are on the low side, but if David Egan can slow the pace, they have a shot to hold on for a check. Longshot exotics.

Analysis

Pacesetters and pressers won six of the last ten editions of the Mr. Prospector, while mid-pack runners and closers won twice each.

Super Chow is a confirmed pacesetter. Illuminare, Mufasa and Little Vic may press or contend the pace with Playmea Tune tailgating. White Abarrio has tactical speed and can stay out of trouble on the outside.

Selections

10. White Abarrio (3-5)

6. Mufasa (CHI) (9-2)

9. Illuminare (10-1)

4. Gordian Knot (15-1)

Handicapper's Corner: Finding Value in the 2024 Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2)

 Finding Value in the Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2)

By:  John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

South Florida and a cool weather day for this Pegasus prep race, with nine going 1 1/8 miles on the lawn. 

Should be a lot of fun, and there might be some real value in the betting with multiple entries from Saffie Joseph, Jr. and Todd Pletcher. 

Featured as race 10 of 11, post time is 4:52 PM ET.  Let's review the field.

#1 Cash Equity – Joseph/Zayas - He's been trying graded company on the Kentucky circuit in his last three outings without success. Was a failed favorite in the River City at Churchill last out. Shows declining form has not had a trip on this lawn, but changes jockeys to a 19% turf winning jockey. Underneath play.

#2 Grand Sonata  - Pletcher/Gaffalione  - Has raced at the highest levels and had some success, winning over $2M lifetime. He's won two of three at Gulfstream but only one at the distance. The public hasn't put a lot of money into him at the betting windows, but still he fits in this field. Gaffalione is quite adept at putting his mounts in the right place to be ITM. The connections are right, the odds are right and I expect he'll be in the top three.

#3 Saratoga Flash  - Joseph/Husbands  - He's struggled against graded/stakes company, but he has done well at Gulfstream with two wins and three seconds out of seven races; however, never won at the distance. They might be the rabbit for this race. Bottom of trifectas or superfectas.

#4 Major Dude – Pletcher/Ortiz, I Jr. – The connections are telling. This stalker midpack closer struggled in the Four Star Dave when stuck in traffic but has won two of his last three and does well at Gulfstream. He's been off since early October and had some nice works coming into this race with two bullets under his belt. Ortiz is on fire and I expect that to remain the same for the meet. This is my top pick, and at 5-1 he is a bargain.

#5 Win for the Money  - Casse/Davis  - This guy won the Woodbine Mile handily and  might have pushed the pace too hard in the BC Mile, finishing last of ten. He shows good form in his races prior to the last, so we'll scratch his last effort. Dylan Davis gets the mount and is coming off a great season up North. The bullet work on December 4^th on the turf is impressive, and he likes Gulfstream. I expect Casse has him ready. My only concern is he's a miler and doesn't go the distance. Bottom of exotics.

#6 Lorenz – Joseph/Van Dyke – When we look through the PPs he stands out as not having enough class. His last two wins with Van Dyke up were for $75K. Both were come from behind late closing wins. That being said, he really likes to be ITM in his last seven races. A conundrum? Or is he a horse moving up with talent? The form is there, Van Dyke is a patient jockey and I'd like to see Lorenz get a piece. Longshot to play in the mix.

#7 Siege of Boston  - Toner/Ruiz – The public loves to throw money at this guy without a lot of winnings. He's had some nice works coming into the race, and Toner is a fine grass trainer but his record says he won't finish well. Rosario put him on the lead last time out in the Knickerbocker, but he got tired in the lane and finished fifth. Ruiz is familiar with Boston, but does the horse have the turn of foot to get there? He's a toss for me.

#8 Fort Washington –McGaughey/Velasquez  - Always liked this horse at the lower levels. The connections are super, steady works at Payson Park. Was fourth by two in the Knickerbocker. Third in the Arty Schiller and had a big win in the Monmouth Stakes at 35-1. As has been seen many times before, Johnny V can show up and punish others. I see him as a worthy longshot ITM.

#9 Emmanuel – Maker/Castellano  - Since he's moved to Maker's barn he has lost some form against graded company. In his favor, he has won two for two at Gulfstream under Pletcher, and he has seen several these other horses in his travels. I just don't have confidence in him, given his recent form. Toss.

Handigambling…you folks pick the money you want to wager

Trifecta – 4 with 2, 6, 8 with All

Exacta Box – 2, 4, 6, 8      Or All with 6 & 8 and a WS bet on 6 & 8

WPS on 6 

Dutch WPS on 8 against the 6