Handicaper's Corner: 2025 Cigar Mile Handicap (G2)

 

PRAYERS ANSWERED IN THE CIGAR MILE HANDICAP 

By: Michael Amo, Thorofan Board Member

It is my honor to handicap this year’s Cigar Mile Handicap (G2). I remember vividly watching him stand majestically at the rail, readying for his morning workouts at Saratoga Racecourse. It brought chills to my neck and back.

On the dirt, he only ran out of the money one time, accumulating 18 wins in 22 starts on that surface. He won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 1995 and was named Horse of the Year in both 1995 and 1996.

From age 4 until his retirement, Hall of Fame Bill Mott trained him. In the early races, the combo of Cigar/Mott/Bailey ruled, at least that was the buzz.

This weekend a short field of seven horses honors him 21 years after he died. The weather at Aqueduct looks to be perfect for racing. Here is the field. 

 

1.   Doc Sullivan (Solomini) Is the lone NY bred horse in the race. Last summer at Saratoga, he tried a Grade 1 race for the first time, finishing 4th behind Book’em Danno, a head behind a hard-closing Crazy Mason, who he faces in this race. Could surprise

2.  Mika (Catholic Boy) Tries graded company and Aqueduct for the first time. He is fast and will challenge for the lead. He won his last by 14 lengths in an 8.5 furlong allowance race. Has stamina to be running late.

3.   Pentathlon (Spreightstown) Is a home bred by Phipps Stable. Working a bullet for this race. New to graded races with a win in an open claimer at Aqueduct. Doesn’t seem fast enough to challenge others in the race. Maybe in deep exotics.

4.  Crazy Mason (Coal Front) Working well for this race. Had trouble after hitting the gate in the Forego this year at Saratoga. May like a little shorter race, but fits here.

5.  Brazenly (Grazen) Johnny Velaquez replaces Irad Ortiz, who stays on Crazy Mason. Recent Beyer figures aren’t as strong as others. Could be closing for a share.

6.   Phileas Fogg (Astern-Aus) Seems to be the fastest and the one to catch. Does well at Aqueduct. Showed his strength with a 3^rd place in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (GI) at Saratoga. He could win wire to wire.

7.   Bishops Bay (Uncle Mo) Has a 2-for-2 record at Aqueduct. Keeps jockey Prat after a near wire-to-wire win in a grade three at Aqueduct. Bred by Winstar Farm and sold at Keeneland auction for $1,300,000. His race to lose.

Analysis

The race looks like Phileas Fogg will be on or close to the pace. In the stretch Bishops Bay, Doc Sullivan and Crazy Mason will challenge him. Bishops Bay and Phileas Fogg will duel to the wire, with Bishops Bay winning.

Here is how they will finish:

7. Bishops Bay (2-1)

6. Phileas Fogg (9-5)

1. Doc Sullivan (5-1)

4. Crazy Mason (7-2)

 Handigamble

$20 win:7. Bishops Bay = $20

$50 Place: 7. Bishops Bay = $50

$1 Trifecta Box: 1,4,6 and 7 =$24

$1 Trifecta Key: 4 with 1,6,7 with 1,6,7 = $6

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Hollywood Derby (G1)

 

Test Score targets another Grade 1 in Hollywood Derby

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The $300,000 Hollywood Derby anchors a trio of stakes scheduled for Del Mar’s turf festival.

The 1 1/8 mile Grade 1 event is one of the last graded stakes on the lawn solely for 3-year-olds. Five of the nine entrants are East Coast invaders, including Test Score, the only Grade 1 winner in the field.

The Hollywood Derby is featured as race 9 of 11 with a 3:30 M PT post time.

Let’s review the field. 

Maaz (FR)  comes off a runner-up effort in the Twilight Derby behind Test Score. Maaz got an inside trip and didn’t have a smooth trip like Test Score. His only in the money finishes were at Santa Anita, although he closed for fourth in the La Jolla Handicap in August. The Mike McCarthy trainee gets another rail trip and needs the pace to set up for him. Pass.

Friendly Confines set a comfortable one-length pace in the restricted Let it Ride Stakes on October 30 but was edged out by Tempest Volat. The Richard Baltas trainee has a win/lose form but now adds another furlong against tougher competition. Pass.  

Test Score has been solid all year, and his only off-the-board finish was fourth place in the 1 5/16 mile Nashville Derby at Kentucky Downs, which was probably a little farther than he liked over the undulating turf. The Graham Motion trainee is undefeated at 1 1/8 miles and is the class of the field. Winner.

After a successful step into stakes competition, winning the Gio Ponti Stakes, Salamis took on graded company in the Bryan Station (G3). Although he was fifth, the Chad Brown trainee finished only two lengths back in a three-way photo with Gakoso for third. That one won the Commonwealth turf (G3)  at Churchill last week. Exotics.

Kokosan is still a maiden but improved in his first two-turn attempt on the lawn after sprinting on dirt. He was on the inside in his last race and was simply outfinished by a half-length. He had tactical speed last year at a mile on the lawn, so this John Sadler trainee is worth a longshot exotics play.

Noble Confessor SCRATCHED.

Copp finally found the winner’s circle against a weak field of turf maidens in his sixth start. Next, he had a troubled trip against allowance-class runners in his last race. Copp hopped at the start, had traffic issues and got stopped, so draw a line through that race. The Mike McCarthy trainee’s Brisnet speed ratings are poor, and he appears to be up against it. Pass.

Tempest Volat likes Del Mar. Since moving to Leonard Powell’s barn in July, Tempest Volat has won or placed in four starts at a mile, including two starts here, as well as a runner-up finish. By Not This Time, Tempest Volat is half to Grade 3 turf winner Delahaye, who was third in her only start beyond 1 1/16 miles. He’s moving up in class and distance, but is worth an exotics look.

Tom’s Magic has faced the best Canadian runners, placing second in the King’s Plate on Polytrack and winning the 1 1/2 mile Breeders’ Stakes on the lawn. Now he’s facing a tougher group. Outside of Canada, Tom’s Magic won a pair of minor stakes and had an excuse in the Transylvania (G3), where he had to steady at the start, and played bumper cars with rivals. Other than the ninth-place finish in the Transylvania (G3), the Michael Stidham trainee hasn’t finished off the board. He has tactical speed and is worth a look for the exotics.

Analysis

Friendly Confines, Tempest Volat and Kokosan are most likely to vie for the early pace.

Test Score stands head and withers above this group, so the real race is for second through fourth.

Tom’s Magic is consistent, has a versatile running style and has won from 1 1/16 to 1 1/2 miles.

Tempest Volat likes Del Mar, and Not This Time’s son could get the distance if he can settle off the pace.

 

3. Test Score (5-2)

9. Tom’s Magic (7-2)

8. Tempest Volat (5-2)

4. Salamis (9-2)

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Commonwealth Turf Stakes (G3)

 

Lone Speed, Big Edge: Commonwealth Turf Stakes Picks 'N Plays 

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Lone Speed, Big Edge: Commonwealth Turf Stakes Preview

Hello racing fans, even though the Breeders’ Cup is now in the rear-view mirror, there’s still plenty of top-tier racing action happening around the country.

This week, our ThoroFan spotlight shifts to Churchill Downs for the 20th running of the Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes, a $300,000 event for three-year-olds traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.

The field is deep and competitive, featuring several stakes winners and stakes-placed runners. With 11 horses entered, this edition promises plenty of intrigue under the Twin Spires.

Post time is scheduled for 5:25 p.m. E.T. 

WIN CONTENDERS:

Mansetti – Lone speed horse in the field who projects to control the race from the front. Synthetic form typically transfers well to turf, so the surface switch is only a mild concern.

Outrunner – Early/presser with strong tactical speed. Should sit right behind leader and get first run. 

Troubleshooting – Forward-placed presser who finishes with consistency.

EXOTICS USE:

Simulate – Mid-pack closer with a steady late run; ideal underneath type.
Giocoso – Presser who keeps grinding late; fits well in 3rd/4th.
Plensa – Late closer who can clunk up when the pace is honest.
Montador – Early/presser who can dig in for minor awards.
Chapman’s Peak – Forward presser capable of hanging around for a slice.

TOSSES:

California Burrito – Early/presser but outclassed and too slow.
Anegada – Presser lacking competitive figures.
Flying Mohawk – Inconsistent closer without the needed punch.

 

RACE ANALYSIS:

This year’s Commonwealth Turf shapes up with Mansetti as the lone true speed, but he’ll have some company; several horses with early/presser styles will apply steady pressure, creating an honest pace.

Outrunner sits in the prime pressing position, while Troubleshooting tracks just off the first wave, saving ground. This forward pressure sets up opportunities for the midpack and late runners to make their moves turning for home.

Down the stretch, Mansetti’s speed may carry him a long way, Outrunner gets first run and Troubleshooting grinds in, with the closers trying to sweep into the exotics late.

With a field dominated by early pressers, Mansetti’s lone-speed profile gives him a clear tactical advantage, while Outrunner sits perfectly placed to strike. Troubleshooting keeps himself in the race from the start and finishes reliably, and the midpack/later types round out the deep exotics.

The wagering strategy reflects the true pace shape and uses all relevant exotics horses in the 3rd/4th positions where they belong.

 

TOP THREE SELECTIONS:

🥇 WIN – Mansetti
🥈 PLACE – Outrunner
🥉 SHOW – Troubleshooting

WAGERING STRATEGY:

WIN BETS — $30

$20 WIN – Mansetti                                                                

$10 WIN – Outrunner (Win saver; his pressing trip gives him the best chance to turn the tables if Mansetti falters.)

 EXACTAS — $40

$15 EXACTA BOX: Mansetti and Outrunner

$10 EXACTA: Mansetti over Troubleshooting

 TRIFECTA — $1.00 Wheel ($10.00 Total)

1st: Mansetti
2nd: Outrunner, Troubleshooting
3rd: Simulate, Giocoso, Plensa, Montador, Chapman’s Peak

 SUPERFECTA — $.50 Wheel ($15.00) 

1st: Mansetti
2nd: Outrunner, Troubleshooting
3rd: Outrunner, Troubleshooting, Simulate, Giocoso, Plensa, Montador, Chapman’s Peak
4th: Giocoso, Plensa, Montador

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!