Friday, October 11, 2024

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)

 European Fillies Ready to Reign at the Q.E. II Challenge Cup Stakes

By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off

The turf racing season for sophomore fillies reaches its zenith on Saturday, October 12, in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) at Keeneland.

The 1 1/8-mile grass race offers a $750,000 purse, boosted from its $600,000 level from the last two years. The race drew a field of ten to contest for such spoils, with a group as classy as any in the division all year long. All ten are stakes winners, and all but two are already graded stakes winners.

The list of winners reads like a who’s who of top turf fillies and mares. Mawj, the 2023 winner, returned to miss by just a nose to older male stablemate Master of the Seas in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) next out. 2022 winner Gina Romantica has won the First Lady (G1) each of the last two years. Other winners include champions Rushing Fall (2018) and Dayatthespa (2012).

Let's review the top picks.

Mawj snapped over a decade of futility on the win end for international shippers in this race, and the chances look strong for overseas raiders this time, too. The one likely to be more heavily bet will be 5. Soprano, who comes out of a Group 1 placing in the Matron at Leopardstown behind the superstar Porta Fortuna. Her class is unassailable, but Soprano has yet to try anything longer than a mile. The picture for that is mixed: she is by Starspangledbanner out of a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner Obviously, so close-up in her pedigree reads sprint-oriented, though there is a bit more stamina with the likes of Hawkster further back down her dam line.

From a betting perspective, 10. Candala is the more interesting of the overseas runners. She has not yet faced older, but that isn’t a major concern given that this is a three-year-old fillies’ race. She has come up just short in her last two, though those were Group 2 events going longer than this, 1 ½ and 1 ¼ miles, respectively. Though both of her wins have come at only a mile as well, her pedigree has plenty of upside for finding her place at 1 1/8 miles: she is by Frankel out of Candarliya, a mare who won going as long as 1 ¾ miles, a distance at which she beat males at the Group 2 level. The condition of the turf is a question, as she has only ever run on soft French ground and now she tries firmer American going for the first time. But, she has class, upside, and jockey Florent Geroux, who knows how to win a big race at Keeneland.

Trainer Chad Brown sends a pair out for the Queen Elizabeth II. 6. Oversubscribed, under Irad Ortiz, Jr., is the shorter price on the mroning line. However, 9. Grayosh is a little more interesting. He gets jockey Flavien Prat, who has won this race twice already with Brown, with Shantisara in 2021 and Gina Romantica in 2022. Prat guided Grayosh to a victory in the Lake Placid (G2) at 1 1/16 miles out, outgaming morning-line favorite She Feels Pretty to win by a neck. She showed in that race that, even if the pace is not terribly fast, she can sit close enough to the pace to stay in striking distance. With an honest but not blazing pace likely, that tractability will be a plus. Though she didn’t finish the job the one other time she tried 1 1/8 miles, that was back in May and her pedigree suggests that the extra time to mature means she very much could be ready for the challenge this time around.

3. She Feels Pretty has never run a bad race in six starts, though she has two wins and four narrow misses. That includes head defeats in both the Belmont Oaks (G1) and the Lake Placid (G2) in her last two starts. Perhaps the blinkers will help her focus enough to get the job done, though the fact that both of her wins have come at a flat mile raises the question of whether She Feels Pretty would prefer that distance, and not a longer trip like this, right between the lengths of the Belmont Oaks and the Lake Placid. In short, she makes a lot of sense to run on for her customary share, but the morning-line favorite will be an underlay on the win end.

Selections

10. Candala (9-2)

9. Grayosh (8-1)

5. Soprano (7-2)

Longshot: Sometimes horses just love Keeneland, and 7. Buchu (15-1) will be the right price to bet that she is one of those kinds of horses.

She has popped up for shares of the gimmicks elsewhere: a second in the Regret (G3) over this distance at Churchill, a fourth at this distance at Del Mar in the Del Mar Oaks (G1) last out. But her last two wins have both come in graded stakes over the lawn in Lexington: The Jessamine (G2) last year and the Appalachian (G2) this spring.

Buchu will be hoping for as much pace in front of her as possible, as she does her best running late. But, with Pin Up Betty basically forced to go from the rail and the likes of Waves of Mischief and Pounce with a chance to go for it and keep her honest, Buchu could add one more smart Keeneland effort to her resume.

 

Saturday, October 5, 2024

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (G1)

 Idiomatic defends her Crown in  Spinster Stakes Showdown

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

During Keeneland's Fall opening weekend, the $600,000 Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes is a premiere challenge event for the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

The 1 1/8 mile contest over the main oval has been a springboard to greatness for many fillies and mares. In fact, the last three winners earned year-end championship honors as the Older Dirt Female, including Idiomatic.

 

This year, Idiomatic returns to defend her crown. The last mare to win consecutive runnings of the Spinster Stakes was Blue Prize (ARG) in 2018 and 2019. However, Idiomatic must fend off five other rivals, including Candied, who lost a head decision in the Alabama Stakes (G1).

The Spinster Stakes has a 5:16 PM ET post time on Sunday. The track is expected to be fast.

Let's review the field.

1. Idiomatic (3-5) fought gallantly every step of the way in an exciting renewal of the 1 1/8 mile Personal Ensign Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. The 5-year-old mare battled Randomized through increasingly fast fractions, and that one threw in the towel before the 1/8 pole. Leg-weary down the stretch, Curlin's daughter drifted in and out, unable to hold off the furious charge of Raging Sea and was defeated by a head. 

Idiomatic traveled 1 1/8 miles in 1:49, with a :13 final furlong, earning a career-best 104 Brisnet speed rating. Conditioned by Brad Cox, the Spinster is Idiomatic's race to lose. Win contender.

2. Candied (9-2) chased a solid pace from mid-pack in the 1 ¼ mile Alabama Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. She circled the field at the 3/8 pole but was unfocused and erratic down the stretch after a chain reaction bumping around the turn. The Todd Pletcher trainee got back on track when Power Squeeze passed, and Candied got her head back in the game and ran with that one. The pair had a thrilling battle to the wire, which Candied lost by a head. 

Candied completed 1 ¼ miles in 2:24.35 with a final quarter of 26.71; Candy Ride's daughter may enjoy the distance cut back. However, as the only 3-year-old in the Spinster, she must stay focused to prove her talent. If Idiomatic stubs a hoof, Candied may be the first to benefit. Exotics.

3. Loved (10-1) made her debut as an early 3-year-old but was given time off until the following year. She rewarded her connections with three straight victories at three different tracks, including Keeneland. The free-running mare couldn't keep up the tempo in a pair of Grade 3 contests, finishing fourth in the Molly Pitcher Stakes and a year later in the Baird Doubledogdare Stakes. 

Brendan Walsh changed Loved's running style, taking her off the pace in her next start, the Mari Hulman George Memorial Handicap at Horseshoe Indianapolis, where she outclassed her rivals by two lengths. 

Loved couldn't get it together in her last race, the Locust Grove Stakes (G2), and finished a distant sixth. This half-sister to Grade 1 hero Maxfield isn't living up to expectations, and I'm not feeling the love. Pass.

4. Honor D Lady (4-1) has finished off the board only twice in her 13-race career. As a tune-up for the Spinster, the 4-year-old daughter of Honor Code dominated the 1 3/16 mile Delaware Handicap (G2) by 5 ½ lengths over an accomplished field that included CCA Oaks (G1) heroine Wet Paint. 

The Saffie Joseph, Jr. trainee completed the distance in 1:59.89 and earned a career-best 97 speed rating. Honor D Lady could emulate her distant relative, the champion Inside Information, who captured the 1995 Spinster Stakes.

5. Bow Draw (30-1) is the "why?" horse in the Spinster. She was last seen finishing a distant third against optional claimers at Churchill. She last visited the winner's circle in February, against allowance 1x types. Pass.

6. Occult (8-1) is competitive against graded and listed types, but her sole graded victory was a 10-length score in last year's Monmouth Oaks (G3). She's been knocking at the door since, placing third or fourth in four subsequent stakes. 

Most recently, she closed for second against Allowance types, unable to catch the lone speed at a mile. The Chad Brown trainee isn't a Grade 1 winning caliber filly yet, but she can pick up the pieces. Exotics.

Analysis

All but two of the last ten Spinster heroines won their last race. The Personal Ensign Stakes is the key prep; half of the Spinster winners used it as a springboard, including the previous three winners.

No particular running style is favored; pacesetters, pressers, and closers have been successful, although pacesetters captured the last three editions of the Spinster. Surprisingly, only three favorites won the Spinster, and three placed second or third.

There aren't any need-the-lead types in the Spinster; however, Idiomatic will likely contest the pace from post 1. She could be lone speed in this small field but could be closely hounded by Loved and Occult.

Honor D Lady and Candied have tactical speed. I predict a chalky finish. (cough).

Selections

1. Idiomatic (3-5)

2. Candied (9-2)

4. Honor D Lady (4-1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Friday, September 27, 2024

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 California Crown (G1)

 Crown National in the Crown

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Handicapper

Starting in September with Kentucky Downs weekend, race purses are going up faster than real estate prices in Saratoga Springs. One Million dollars seems to be the new benchmark.

This weekend, the California Crown(GI) race, a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, has seven horses entered running for a share of a $1,000,000 purse.

 

Trainer Bob Baffert holds the record for most wins in the race at 8 with a chance for 9. He has three horses entered this year. Trainer Doug O’Neill is shooting for a repeat with Katonah.

Over the years, the race has had for names –1982, the Goodwood Stakes, 2012, The Awesome Again Stakes, and the California Crown Stakes beginning this year.

As one might expect, the weather in southern California for the race will be a beautiful 87 degrees with a 1% chance of rain for this race over the dirt course.

Here is the field for the 2024 California Crown (GI)

1.   Newgate (Into Mischief) Hasn’t run in 6 months after a poor performance in the Dubai World Cup. He needs to regroup and recover his form and speed from 2023. Pass.

2.   Subsanador (Fortify) This Argentine bred showed possibility in is initial starts. Richard Mandella seems to have him moving in the right direction. Jockey Mike Smith rides him a second time after a nice GIII performance at Monmouth Park in August. Could win, but more likely lower in exotic tickets.

3.   National Treasure ( Quality Road) Retains top jockey Flavian Pratt, who has him in the Winner’s Circle 2 of the 5 times he has ridden him. Great speed and pacesetter in this race at this distance and over a dry track. Five of the seven in the race will be charging after him as the wire approaches. The likely winner.

4.   Katonah (Klimt) Gets a hot jockey and should be tracking the two pacesetters waiting to pounce. He is fast enough and gets weight (4 lbs.) from the likely favorite. O’Neill would love a repeat. Maybe.

5.   Muth (Good Magic) One of the two speeds in the race and two 3-year-olds trying older horses in a grade one race for the first time. One of Baffert’s three entrees. May try to push others to set the race up for National Treasure to pull away in the stretch. Possibility, but at a price.

6.   Senor Buscador (Mineshaft) He has been around and proved his worth with lifetime earnings over $12 million. Good for the distance and worked bullet last Friday for this race. Slower than some of the others. Will the real Senor show up? In the exotics.

7.   Indispensable ( Constitution) Out of hot sire and owned in part by a top racing syndicate, West Point Thoroughbred. Took the 3-year-old nine times to break his maiden at mile at Del Mar. Showed potential finishing second to Muth in the shared Belief at Del Mar in July. Another day.

 Analysis

This appears to be a Baffert race to lose. How he instructs his three riders to run the race will make the difference.

National Treasure holds his best chance if the pace is moderate and he can pull ahead in the lane. Baffert’s other speedster, Muth, may push the pace for National Treasure to take over in the lane. Katonah, for O’Neill, has the running style that could disrupt Baffert’s plans. The rest will be in the mix late.

Here is how they will finish:

3. National Treasure (8-5)

4. Katonah (15-1)

2. Subsanador (5-1)

6. Senor Buscador (6-1)

 Handigamble

$50 to win ---3. National Treasure  = $50.00

$20 Exacta Box ---3. National Treasure and 4. Katonah =$40.00

$.50 Trifecta -----3, 4, 2, with 3, 4, 2; $6 with 3, 4, 2,6 =$ 6.00

Good luck but keep the day job!