Longshot could surprise in Jerome Stakes
By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper
According to the internet, The Jerome Stakes is the second
oldest stakes race in the U.S. (Travers is the oldest). Up until 2009, it was run in the fall at
Belmont but has since been moved to January and contested at Aqueduct which I
hear is lovely this time of year…not so much.
It is however the first stop on New York’s road to the Derby in 2023 and
offers qualifying points to the spring classic for the top 5 finishers
(10-4-3-2-1). That fact adds a bit of
shine to a race that has lost some luster since being moved. Perhaps we will see 2023’s Derby winner…
The $150,000 Jerome Stakes is contested at a mile, and the
track may be drying out. The event is carded as race eight of ten.
The field:
1-
Neural Network - Chad throws this NY
state bred maiden winner right into open stakes company off a sporty win on
this oval going 7f. After tracking a
slow pace, he separated from his competition using a 3 wide journey. The jockey that day was scrubbing on him the
entire way which tells me he may not have a ton of speed. That’s concerning since he moves to the rail
and has better speed to his outside. Aqueduct’s
kick back is no joke and he will no doubt have to deal with it. He will take plenty of $$ at the windows and most
likely be over bet. Board Contender.
2-
Circling the Drain - A Maryland invader
coming off a 7-length score in 40k maiden claiming company. He did go 2 turns so the distance is not the
problem. It looks like they are taking a
swing here. Perhaps the trainer who was
22% in 2022 saw something. Toss.
3-
Valenzan Day - Has already danced 8 times
and hit the board in 6 of them. Linda
Rice scooped this guy up out of a Starter Optional Claiming race. Those tend to be “cheap” in NY. That said, Linda makes a good living in the
claiming game and usually isn’t filling the races she enters. Interesting that she also owns this guy and
there is a bit of back class. Longshot Chance.
4-
Lugan Night - Broke his maiden at second
asking like a good horse while splitting rivals in the stretch. He then came back to run 3rd
against a future stakes winner who is undefeated and a stakes placed horse so
he’s keeping good company. Looks
talented against decent ones and may be taking a sneaky drop in class
here. Win Contender.
5-
Andiamo a Firenze - Graded stakes placed
as a sprinter. Seems to be a very good
NY Bred but didn’t do well in the G1 Champagne.
Perhaps it was the company.
Perhaps it was the distance.
Perhaps both. Either way, this
isn’t a G1 and he has shown enough quality in the past to merit respect. I’m on the fence but he will lead them as far
as he can. Board Contender.
6-
Arctic Arrogance - Another NY Bred who
ran a gutsy 2nd in the G2 Remson where he beat 3rd 11
lengths. That event was 1 1/8th
miles. He won 2 back going 1 mile on
this track so he has had success at today’s assignment. He owns the best speed figures and is coming
out of the best race. The deserving
favorite. Win Contender.
7-
General Banker - Jimmy Ferraro sends out
this guy who broke his maiden in his 8th attempt while winning a
lucrative NY Stallion Series race at 10-1.
He looks on the improve both visually and on paper as he blew by his
foes in his last and his speed figures are increasing. He also owns the 2nd best Beyer
number of the bunch of 83 (Arctic Arrogance-89). His form lines are also littered
with some trouble comments so his talent may not have shown early on. Longshot Chance.
8-
Narciso Dali – Another on the improve. He needed some class relief and found some
friends in a 75k maiden claiming event winning by 6.5 lengths. This water has much bigger fish who won’t be
as friendly. Toss.
SUMMARY: Early
season 3yo races can sometimes have erratic form as the runners are entering
the development stages of their careers.
They are figuring out how to be racehorses. I like to search out ones that have flashed
some ability and are improving in their form.
The Jerome offers us 6 of 8 entrants are exiting either running
for a tag or a state bred race. The
other two are coming out open company.
That said, I am first tossing the ones who ran for a tag
first (Circling the Drain, Valenzan Day and Narciso Dali). They are going to have to prove something first
for me to back them.
Secondly, I will discount the ones who either lack some
experience (Neural Network) or who have some questions to answer like
distance (Andiamo a Firenze).
Thirdly, I will identify those with proven form (Arctic
Arrogance) and those who look on the improve (Lugan Night & General
Banker).
Lastly, I need to construct a wager that both offers expresses
my opinion while offering me the best bang for my buck.
I would expect that Arctic Arrogance will go favored
off his Remsen effort and rightly so. It
would shock no one if he won but I don’t see any wagering value to back him in
the win pool. I would also think Lugan
Night will get some attention and land somewhere around his 4-1 morning
line. General Banker will clearly
be the price play of those I’ve identified as win candidates as he is coming
out of state bred company with some dirty form lines.
THE BET: (Based on $100 wagered)
$40 win General Banker
$10 exacta key box General Banker with Arctic Arrogance
& Lugan Night
$5 trifecta Arctic Arrogance/Lugan Night with Arctic
Arrogance/Lugan Night with General Banker
Good Luck
