Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Smarty Jones Stakes

  

The Spirit of Birdstone Tries Again

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Member

Smarty Jones had a short but remarkable career. He ran nine times, winning eight, finishing second in the 2004 Belmont Stakes.

I was perched in my third deck seat at Belmont Park as I watched him control the field as he attempted to win the Triple Crown. Approaching the quarter pole, it looked like from my vantage point he was going to do it. That is, until Birdstone at 36-1 powered down the stretch, consuming seven lengths as he passed a tiring Smarty Jones, winning by a length.

Emotions were split. The entire crowd, cheering him on, was sullen as Birdstone crossed the finish line. Even Birdstone’s owner, Marylou Whitney, apologized to the crowd for the upset.

The courage of Smarty Jones in the Triple Crown races earned him recognition and the naming of this race for him.

Nine 3-year-old colts are entered to run 8.5 furlongs for a share of the $250,000 purse. The Smarty Jones is the 10th of 11 races on Saturday’s card, with a scheduled post time of 4:25 p.m. CT.

The weather in Hot Springs looks beautiful. Let’s look at the field.

1.   Universe (Global Campaign) has finished in the money in his last four races. Jockey Hernandez switches to McPeek’s other entry, Sleepingonfreedom (#9). Coming up in company and should make his presence known in the stretch. Although his post position may cause him trouble.

2.   Baytown Dreamer (Mendelssohn) worked a bullet for the race. Should push the pace early, but the distance could be his Waterloo.

3.   Boca Beach Club (Omaha Beach) worked a bullet for the race but tries the 8.5 furlongs for the first time. Although he steps up in class, he will be in the mix, hoping for others to make mistakes.

4.   Silent Tactic (Tacitus) ran a commendable race at 8.5 furlongs over the Woodbine synthetic course. Should sit off the pace with a move in the stretch. Could be in the money.

5.   Rancho Santa Fe (Tapit) should be challenging the lead with jockey Florent Geroux’s 3^rd time aboard. Has had two bullet workouts since his last race, which he won. Bred and retained by West Stables is a good sign. Dangerous.

6.   Oscar’s Hope (Twirling Candy) another one pushing the early pace. Stretching out to a longer distance, yet he has finished in the first two positions in all his races. Seems focused on the wire. Picks up solid jockey, Santana, for trainer Tom Amoss. Contender.

7.   Strategic Risk (Noble Bird) tries lower company and did well at this distance last out winning by nine lengths. Castellano returns, trying to deliver back-to-back wins for Mark Casse. He should be strategically placed with a rush to the finish in the lane. Ironically, his sire was sired by Birdstone, the horse that beat Smarty Jones. Contender.

8.   Scar Ship (Midshipman) runs in only state-bred restricted races. Tries open company for the first time. Another vying for the lead early in the race. Stretching out from sprint to 8.5 furlongs may be too big of a challenge. Adds blinkers. Could be an experiment which needs to be watched.

9.   Sleepingonfreedom (Independence Hall) closed to win a lesser race over the sloppy course at Churchill Downs. Jockey Hernandez stays with him, giving up the other McPeek horse. Can run on the front or just off the pace. Likely will try to stay in mid-pack early, waiting for a last spurt. Maybe?

   Analysis

   The early pace outside of Universe may compromise his ability to establish the position he wants –a danger at short odds. Oscar’s Hope should have the lead into the stretch with Boca Beach Club and Strategic Risk hoping to catch him. Here is how I think the race will finish/

7. Strategic Risk (6-1)

6. Oscar’s Hope (8-1)

1. Universe (3-1)

8. Scar Ship (12-1)

Handigamble

$20 to win on Strategic Risk (7) =$20

$40 to place on Strategic Risk (7) =$40

$5 Exacta Box: Strategic Risk (7), Oscar’s Hope (6), and Universe (1) = $30

$1 Trifecta Key: Scar Ship (8) with Strategic Risk (7), Oscar’s Hope (6), and Universe (1 with Strategic Risk (7), Oscar’s Hope (6), and Universe (1) = $6

Good luck but keep the day job.

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Malibu Stakes (G1)

 

Malibu Stakes Chaos: Favorite Under Fire

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

Sunday’s Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita attracted ten 3-year-old colts seeking their first Grade 1 victory, including five from the Bob Baffert barn.

How soft is the field? Only one graded stakes winner, Barns, entered. In the previous 11 years, nine Malibu heroes exited a Breeders’ Cup race, and three earned championship honors during their careers.

The 7-furlong event is featured as race 10 on a stakes-filled 11-race card. Post time is 3:49 PM PT.

Let’s review the field.

The morning line favorite, Barnes (3-1), had a bumpy Spring and Summer, not living up to the hefty $3.2 million price tag. He finished behind Journalism in the San Felipe (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1), dashing his Derby dreams and placed third and fourth in graded stakes at Saratoga and PARX. The Bob Baffert trainee finally found the winners’ circle again with a dominant eight-length score in the Perryville (G3) when switched back to his preferred pacesetting style. Barnes is the only graded winner in this exceptionally soft Grade 1 event. Contender.

Goal Oriented (5-1) has spent the year playing in Grade 1 events. He finished behind Journalism twice, Baeza once and faded to sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile after a wide trip. Now he shortens up and takes on a softer crowd. The Baffert trainee has tactical speed and could pull off the upset. Contender.

Cornucopian (7-2) won his six-furlong debut in a dazzling 1:09, with a sharp 11.61 final furlong. Next, he faded to fourth in the Arkansas Derby and surfaced a month later at Aqueduct, when he placed second in an Allowance Optional Claiming event against two rivals. He had a six-month break before returning to training in October.

Baffert’s charge has a series of five-furlong breezes, where he has successfully rated a few lengths behind mates. He teamed with Barnes in their last work, a bullet 6 furlongs in 1:12.80. Cornucopian was moving better, while Barnes was pushed.

Cornucopian has excellent leg extension, targets and passes others without being pushed, but doesn’t like being near other horses; he turns his head away, and his body drifts outward. The knock against Cornucopian is that he may tangle with Modus Bestia and get cooked. Exotics.

Madaket Road (5-1) After a hit and mostly miss experience on the Derby trail, Madaket Road shortened up for the Pat Day Mile and finished second. He shortened up yet another furlong for the Woody Stephens. Despite stumbling at the break, Madaket Road rushed into second place and stayed there. He didn’t run his usual race in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial, formerly known as the King’s Bishop, never getting into gear and checking in fifth, while stablemate Barnes was third and Midland Money seventh.

The Bob Baffert trainee has delivered the same good, but not good enough, performance throughout his career and is clearly a polite horse, deferring to others. If Madaket Road runs his typical race, expect him to finish in the superfecta. Exotics.

Midland Money (7-2) looked like a good thing in his initial two starts, winning by a combined 9 3/4 lengths. Then he took on a salty bunch, including stablemates Barnes and MM,  in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1), his first attempt beyond six furlongs. Midland Money set a quick tempo, but was through by the time the real running began and quickly faded to sixth. He faced Allowance Optional Claiming class runners in his last two starts at Del Mar and Santa Anita, losing both times.

On a positive note, in his last race at 6 1/2 furlongs, Midland Money switched from a pacesetter/presser to a closing running style, and it almost paid off. He made a last-to-second move, circled the field and closed with each stride, missing by 1 1/4 lengths. The feat earned him a 106 Brisnet late pace figure, the Malibu field’s highest. Exotics.

Live Longshots

Speedy Wilson (15-1) has been in the money in six of eight career starts in restricted stakes and open optional claiming company. 7 furlongs is his sweet spot; he’s 3 for 3 at the distance and recently bested 8 rivals in an Allowance Optional Claiming contest at Del Mar, which included Comedy Town, a two-time stakes winner at Gulfstream. The Phil D’Amato trainee has tactical speed; he can press or close as the situation warrants. Exotics.

Why is Grade 3-placed Smooth Cruisein (30-1) dismissed at such long odds? He’s been out of the superfecta just twice in 8 career starts. In the shared Belief, he faced only Citizen Bull, who would just miss in the BC Sprint, and the always competitive Gaming, who Smooth Cruisein beat by 9 lengths. While the Karen Headley trainee isn’t in the same class as Citizen Bull, he generally runs his race and could hit the exotics, especially if there’s a fast pace.

Not Today

Modus Bestia (15-1) is a speedball on the rail. We’re talking 21 first and 44 second quarter speed. However, he hasn’t been capable of sustaining it until recently, when he beat maidens by three lengths, getting 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:14.98, and again against Allowance Optional Claiming class by 1 1/2 lengths, timed in 1:09.51 for 6 panels. Will he win? Probably not, but he could make things interesting on the front end. I predict speed/fade. Pass.

Technically, Berlin Wall (20-1) has two victories, but has crossed the finish line in front only once, in his last start, where he powered away from state-bred $20,000 Allowance Optional Claimers by 7 3/4 lengths, completing 6 1/2 furlongs in a modest 1:16.78. He’ll need to improve to be a threat. Pass.

Spenard (30-1) is the field’s “why?” horse. He was beaten like a dusty rug at Zia Park by a combined 9 1/4 lengths in his last two starts without apparent excuse. Pass.

 

Analysis

Previous Starts: 7 of the previous 10 Malibu victors exited a Breeders’ Cup race, including the last two. Five placed first through fourth. Six winners gained ground in their last start, although the previous two Malibu winners didn’t.

Run Style: Pacesetters and pressers rule. Only one closer, farther back than two lengths, won.

Favorites: Only 3 of the last 10 favorites didn’t win. None placed worse than fourth.

Post Position: The Malibu seldom attracts more than nine runners. No particular post is favored.

 

Barnes is the early favorite, yet Goal Oriented fits the historical profile as well.

Barnes has a 3:2-0-1 record at 7 furlongs, while Goal Oriented is cutting back to a sprint.

Modus Bestia will play catch-me-if-you-can. He may set a lively tempo with Midland Money, Cornucopian, Barnes and possibly Goal Oriented in hot pursuit. Cornucopian and Barnes have the early speed to challenge, but I expect Flavien Prat on the former and Jose Ortiz on the latter are wise enough not to get into a speed duel with a 15-1 shot.

I wasn’t thrilled with Barnes’s last breeze when he was pushed to stay with Cornucopian. Maybe he needed the work, although he has a solid string of 5 and 6-furlong breezes under his girth.

I’m going with Goal Oriented for the upset. He has won from on and off the pace and just missed the Haskell victory in an exciting blanket finish with Journalism and Gosger.

Madaket Road always runs his race, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish second or third. The talent is there, but the competitive nature isn’t.

 

10. Goal Oriented (5-1)

9. Barnes (3-1)

3. Madaket Road (5-1)

4. Speedy Wilson (15-1

  

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Pennsylvania Derby (G1)

Penn Derby Drama: Can Baeza Shed the Bridesmaid Tag?

By Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate) 

We have the Grade 1 Penn Derby for 3-year-olds with a $1,000,000 purse this Saturday at Parx Racing.

As pointed out by Ed Derosa on X (@EJXD2), this year’s race attracted a grand total of 0 Grade 1 winners, only 1 Grade 2 winner (Magnitude) and 2 Grade 3 Winners (Gosger & Mo Plex).

The good news is that we have a competitive field that should make for good betting opportunities.

 Here is who we like:

Baeza (2-1) Trained by John Shirrifes with Hector Berrios the Jockey, Baeza ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes behind Sovereignty and Journalism and 2nd in the Jim Dandy Stakes. Those races featured the 3-year-old superstar Sovereignty or Journalism; this race does not. Will the Bridesmaid finally step up and win. Pace-wise, it looks like the race sets up nicely for Baeza, with enough speed up front for him to close in. After a busy Spring campaign, he comes into this race off a 56-day layoff and a sharp workout last week at 6 furlongs. The Distance will be no problem, as Baeza has gone 1 1/8 miles or longer in his last four races. If you think he steps up, this is the race.

Gosger (4-1), trained by Brendon Walsh with Luis Saez, is lightly raced but has been in the money all five times, with two wins and three place showings. Like Baeza, he likes to close into a fast pace. Not sure he is as fast as Baeza, but he’s well rested and comes off a bullet workout last week. If he stays anywhere near his 4-1 morning line, there is plenty of value here, and I would jump on him in your exotics. Speed figures show he is just as fast as Baeza so why not take him at double the morning line value over Baeza.

Goal Oriented (5-2). This Baffert-trained horse, with Irad Ortiz Jr. on board, is lightly raced, having started only 4 times, but 2 of those starts have been Grade 1 races: the Preakness (4th place) and the Haskell (3rd place, behind Journalism and Gosger). He’s plenty rested (2 months) and would appear to be ready to take a step up. Gets a Jockey switch from Flavien Prat to the always dangerous Irad Ortiz Jr.

Magnitude (6-1) This Steve Asmussen trainee has plenty of experience, having run 9 times with 4 wins, with last race a well back 2nd to Sovereignty in the Travers. He will be part of the early speed and will appreciate the cut back from the 1 1/4 mile Travers to this race at 1 1/8 miles. He has had injuries and been inconsistent, but speed is always dangerous and figures to be part of the exotics if her runs to his best prior speed figure.

 

Analysis

This will be an interesting race pace-wise. Looks to be pretty fast with good early pace.

We think front-runners Big Truzz (10-1) and So Sandy (15-1) lead the pace with Magnitude right behind them early.

From there, it’s a stretch duel between the closers Goal Oriented, Gosger and Baeza.

We hope to hit a Trifecta Boxing our 4 highlighted horses. We also think a win bet on Gosger at 3-1 or higher odds is good value.

As always, watch the Horses in the Paddock and the odds as Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.

Bets: $100 Budget

$50-win Gosger

$2Trifecta Box: Gosger, Baeza, Goal Oriented, Magnitude (total bet $48)

$2 Longshot pick: Big Truzz (10-1)