Picking against the favorite in Caress Stakes
By: MaryJo Moncheski, ThoroFan Handicapper
The $250,000 Grade 2 Caress Stakes drew six older fillies and mares who will sprint 5 1/2 furlongs over the Saratoga turf course. Carded as race five of 11, post time is 2:47 PM ET.
It is a short field for the G2 Caress Stakes. I don’t like to play superfectas on fields with six or fewer horses as it’s not worth the payout. With that being said, I am going with a trifecta using 3-6-5. Most people may pick 1. Zeitlos or 4. Sunna. I will start with these two, then dive into who I do like.
Zeitlos has a lot of things going wrong for her. She hasn’t won a race in 10 starts. She was so close in the G3 Winning Colors at Churchill Downs on May 25, 2026; however, she just missed. Zeitlos has been consistent, running in fifth or fourth position at every quarter pole in every race. She has won with Jockey Jose Ortiz, though.
Now, Sunna has consistent speed and has won her last three starts… and that’s where she loses me. Jockey Joel Rosario picks up her mount. I simply cannot trust Rosario to deliver. He has been on a little hot streak as of late, though, not enough for me to trust he’ll see Sunna over the finish line. I like to see horses that have changes in distances, especially the last three races. There’s nothing wrong with a horse that likes one certain length of distance; however, they can eventually get bored. Sunna is jumping in class pretty big, too.
For these reasons, I am knocking those two from my picks. Let’s take a look further.
TOP PAIR: 3-6
I really love 3. Italian Soiree with Jockey Dylan Davis. She has the speed to beat the short field as well as experience in this class. Trainer Graham Motion brought her back from a six-month layoff to win and earn a 93 Beyer Speed figure. While she finished second by a length in her last race, I like that she was consistently moving every quarter. Her speed figures haven’t been consistent, but I think she has what it takes to get to the lead.
Of the Trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. horses in this field, I like 6. In Our Time the most. She could be the rabbit for 2. Movin’ On Up. In Our Time won coming back after a layoff and currently fits my “rested criteria”: off 30 days, paid under $4.80 last time out, at least 10% win rate of total lifetime starts, and has speed. The only reason I didn’t put her on top is that she will likely be the heavy favorite. It is better to put heavy favorites in the middle.
Lastly, to round out my trifecta, I have 5. Obstreperous. Jockey Jaime Rodriguez has been on fire in New York. Out of 17 starts in the Saratoga meet, he already has an 18% win rate and a 22% Jockey/Trainer combo win rate with Trainer Michael Simone. This horse has the speed capability to win; however, my only hesitation is bumping up significantly in class. Last year, Obstreperous raced in the Caress when it was downgraded to a G3 and placed ninth. Her workouts have been pretty good, so we’ll have to see if she can handle this short field.
Trifecta: 3,6,4
3. Italian Soiree (7-2)
6. In Our Time (5-2)
5. Obstreperous (15-1)
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