A Three-Peat or an Upset? How About Both?
By: Alex Sausville, Off The Turf Podcast
A race like most west coast Kentucky Derby preps in which its dominated by the likes of Bob Baffert, Saturday’s renewal of the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes looks to have that similar feel.
Baffert comes in with a slew of superstars heading towards the first Saturday in May, including a colt who narrowly trailed the trailblazing Life Is Good last time out. Medina Spirit looks to be a heavy favorite to capture the 10 derby points on the line, however with a talented field set to turn up; I’m far more interested in the Baffert runner lining up from the far outside.
It’s been quite the interesting early campaign for Spielberg, who started out at the sprinting distance, including a Grade 2 placing in the Del Mar Futurity. He then was extended out to a mile and a sixteenth to place 3rd in the Grade 1 American Pharoah. After that, it seemed connections were still a bit unsure of what the prime distance was for the $1 Million dollar Keeneland September yearling purchase, with attempts back at 7 Furlongs, one mile, and his coveted stakes victory at this same distance in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. When analyzing this horse, he has been very competitive at the various distances he competed, and with this race, it seems they may have found where he belongs. As an experienced three-year-old in this field and what should be a good price with an assumed underlay on Medina Spirit, Spielberg should be primed to find a nice stalking trip off the leaders and make a big run in the straight. Not saying he will win by open lengths, but in this game a win by a nose or neck pays just as well.
One horse who will definitely take some money in this spot is the Doug O’Neill trained Hot Rod Charlie. Following a massive effort at the Breeders’ Cup to finish just behind Godolphin’s Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie comes back to prove that his first effort in stakes company was no mere fluke. This horse has excelled since getting over the mile distance and seems to be progressing nicely; however he has been off since the Breeders' Cup and may need a run to get back to his top effort. In this case I can see him having some decent pace to close into and if he shows up could be there on the line, however I need to see how he backs up that last performance before he lands on my ticket.
With what looks to be the dominance of Baffert’s two contenders, I had my eye out for a price that could pick up the pieces late if anything crazy ensues up front. In this race, I didn’t have to look long as Rombauer looks picture perfect in that role. Now that he’s found a home on the dirt, Rombauer’s late closing style could end up working perfectly in this spot and despite his best effort coming in a weaker rendition of the Grade 1 American Pharoah, I thought his effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile would be good enough for a piece this weekend.
My Bets:
$40 Win: 8 - Spielberg = $40
$3 Tri: 8/1,2/All = $36
$2 Tri: 1/2,8/All = $24
Total: $100
Final Thoughts:
Once the right spot is found for Spielberg, I expect to see him really start to excel during his three year old campaign and possibly beyond. It’s been a lot of trial and tribulation so far, but I believe that spot has been found. This race should be a perfect start for Spielberg on his quest to the starting gate in Kentucky and although he may run into a barn mate who looks to take a world of beating, he should be up for the task. It’s going to be a thrilling rendition in the early stages of many derby campaigns and despite only having Grade 3 status, the honor roll of the Robert B. Lewis speaks for itself.
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