Pegasus World Cup Picks n' Plays
By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Gulfstream Park in South Florida is the place to be this Saturday as the fifth running of the 1 1/8-mile $3 million Pegasus World Cup, along with $1 million Pegasus World Cup Turf will be contested. Both races will be part of an extraordinary program featuring seven graded stakes.
Neither of trainer Bob Baffert’s two early Pegasus candidates, defending champion Mucho Gusto and Arkansas Derby winner, Charlatan, will make the Pegasus Cup race. The former was retired due to an injury, while the latter who also won the Malibu Stakes following a seven-month layoff, will wait for next month’s Saudi Cup.
Baffert, who won the inaugural Pegasus Cup running in 2017 with Arrogate also saddled West Coast to a second-place finish in 2018 edition.
In addition to the absence of the two California stablemates, the Pegasus Cup will be without four-time Grade 1 winner, Tiz the Law, who was being pointed to this spot following his sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but also had to retire because of an injury, and the unbeaten Godolphin runner, Maxfield, winner of the Breeders’ Futurity in 2019, who came down with a respiratory illness.
The void of the four marquee names certainly took plenty of horsepower (no pun intended) out of the $3 million event, however, a full field of 12 talented older horses, including a trio of bonafide G1 winners, are set to do battle.
Entry in both Pegasus races were by invitation only, and the horses must run free of all race-day medication.
The winner of the Pegasus World Cup receives an automatic entry into the next month’s $20-million Saudi Cup.
Fans were will be allowed on site, but attendance for this year’s Pegasus Day has been reduced by 20%. There will be strict social distancing protocols, as well as new health and safety guidelines in place for both spectators and riders.
NBC Sports will broadcast the two races live from 4:30-6:00 pm EST with scheduled post time for the Pegasus Cup Turf at 4:59 and Pegasus Cup at 5:44.
Here is a brief capsule of the horses for the Pegasus Cup from the rail out.
PP – Horse – Jockey/Trainer ML
1 - Sleepy Eyes Todd – Jose Ortiz/Miguel Angel Silva 8-1 - Won the Mr. Prospector Stakes over this track in December, and has been a model of consistency, winning eight of 15 lifetime starts while racing at 11 different tracks.
2 - Coastal Defense – Corey Lanerie/Dale Romans 15 -1 - Has recorded a pair of fourth-place finishes in his only two graded stakes appearances, which happened to be his last two starts, and he wasn’t beaten by much in either one.
3 - Independence Hall – Flavian Prat/Mike McCarthy 20-1 – He gets two-turns for the first time since last year’s appearance here in the Florida Derby. As a juvenile, he won the Nashua by over a dozen lengths.
4 - Knicks Go – Joel Rosario/Brad Cox 5-2 – Enters the Pegasus off three consecutive wins since moving into the Cox barn. He became a multiple Grade 1 winner with his impressive score last out in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.
5 - Jesus’ Team – Irad Ortiz, Jr/Jose D’Angelo 8-1 – Came out a winner in the Claiming Crown Jewel here in December, following a runner-up placing in the BC Mile one month prior. He was third in both the Preakness and Jim Dandy last year.
6 - Kiss Today Goodbye – Mike Smith/Eric Kruljak 10-1 – Lightly-raced runner pulled off the upset in the San Antonio last start when he closed from last to defeat, among others, Mucho Gusto, who certainly would have been among the top choices for this event.
7 - Tax – Luis Saez/Danny Gargan 5-1 – Came off a seven-month layoff in December to score a wire-to-wire win the Harlan’s Holiday. After stumbling at the start of last year’s Pegasus, he never got untracked and finished ninth.
8 - Harpers First Ride – Angel Cruz/Claudio Gonzalez 10-1 - Enters the Pegasus having won four of his last five starts, including a victory in the Pimlico Special. This will be his first attempt at the Grade 1 level.
9 - Last Judgment – Paco Lopez/Mike Maker 20-1 - Stretched out nicely in distance to win the Sunshine Classic over this surface one week ago. Waters gets much deeper now facing top-level competition.
10 - Code of Honor – Tyler Gaffalione/Shug McGaughey 9-2 – This race marks the 13th consecutive appearance in a graded stake for this 5-year-old and his ninth start in a Grade 1 contest. He is a multiple G1 winner conditioned by a Hall-of-Fame trainer.
11 - Mr Freeze – John Velazquez/Dale Romans 15-1 – Before winning a pair of Grade 2’s last year, he led the field for three-quarters in this race before being passed, but dug in and held for second. Unplaced in his last two outings, the BC Mile and Clark.
12 - Math Wizard – Edgard Zayas/Saffie Joseph 20-1 - Locally-based horse is a Grade 1 winner who was runner-up to the Breeders' Cup Classic show finisher, Global Campaign, in the Monmouth Cup last summer.
ANALYSIS:
All four previous winners of this race were forwardly placed (within two lengths of the lead at the first call) and were first or second choice in the wagering.
Those past statistics bode nicely for the speedy Knicks Go, who figures to be favored by the bettors, and who pace wise, appears to have this field over the ‘proverbial barrel”. The BC Mile winner is almost certain to go to the front with his dominating speed, forcing the others to try to catch him.
There are a couple of other horses in here that have displayed early foot in prior races, but none of them appear capable of matching strides with Knicks Go in the early stages.
Nicely drawn in gate four, Knick Go is in terrific form and red-hot since joining the Brad Cox barn. Although he is untested at the nine-furlong distance, the manner in which he won the BC Mile indicates the extra ground shouldn’t be an issue. He possesses all the credentials to win this race. In addition, the speed-favoring Gulfstream surface certainly will be beneficial to his early style.
Code of Honor would have been my top pick, but he faces an extremely difficult assignment after drawing wide in stall 10. To his credit, he is certainly no stranger to large fields. He’s consistent, has demonstrated good form over this surface and has faced the most advanced competition. Two things need to happen for him to overcome his post - A flawless trip, and plenty of pace help. That’s asking quite a lot, but with his class, I can’t see this horse finishing out of the top three positions.
Sleepy Eyes Todd changed up his racing strategy the last two races when coming from well off-the-pace. But with his inside draw here, it’s likely he will come out running to avoid getting trapped, and secure good position just behind Knicks Go and then hope that one gets leg weary in the final eighth. However, if connections have the rider employ the same racing tactics that have been successful recently, (if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it) he could rate nicely and his strong late kick is capable of picking up the pieces late if the pace weakens.
WAGER: I’ll construct superfecta tickets using my top three contenders above and mixing in Tax, Jesus’ Team, Kiss Today Goodbye, Mr Freeze and Coastal Defense.
Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!
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