Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)

Tough Pace Scenario in QEII Challange

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

We have a fine field of three year old fillies all of whom have run in graded company, all have pace lines that say they like to close into a fast pace, and all but one, Kelsey’s Cross, has broken 90 Bris speed. This is a tough race as the pace scenario is muddied and all seem to be closers. Pace makes this race. 

Having said that someone will has to step up and take the lead. I’m looking for who attends the pace closer to the front or has run on the lead. 

#4 - Princesa Carolina has won a race on the lead. 

#9 – Regal Glory attends the pace closer than most and don’t be fooled about the speed in her last as it was a driving rain over softer ground and she dead heated with #8 – Verenka who closed from mid-pack.

#3 - Cambier Parc is certainly capable of going on the front and Johnny V may just do that and walk them through the first half mile but I think José is just as capable with #4 - Princesa Carolina. 

There are no pace lines for #5 – Castle Lady but having watched this one in her most recent GI win, she can attend close to the lead and win. She was not as close in her last at Ascot and that (and being somewhat blocked in the last two furlongs) may have cost her a placing. 

The remainder of the field like to move from well back or mid-pack.

#7 – Magnetic Charm showed real potential when losing by a neck in the Sandringham Stakes at Ascot while dodging and weaving through a field of 28 (an incredible feat). She’s no slouch and will come here displaying her owner’s royal colors which is a rare treat for this country. In her last race the jockey kept her well back and moved late to finish second to a very talented horse who moved at the eighth pole and drove home.

If someone does go to the lead and sets a hot pace, I believe #6 – Café Americano gets it done based on her last race. 

The others are very nice girls but appear to have limitations that don’t let them win in this company. 

#1 – Lady Prancealot is a dead closer and I don’t see that scenario presenting itself. 

#2 - Kelsey’s Cross is moving up in class and never won against graded company.

Analysis

It’s tough for me to pick a short priced horse for this race and the scenario that might develop so I’ll play a key trifecta that makes sense to me. #4 - Princesa Carolina is my key for this race. José Ortiz stays with her and her performance in her last race shows her strength over an undulating course and she has the most experience over the grass. And this grass in particular on the front going longer in April.

Handigambling

$2 Trifecta – 4 with 3,5,6,7 with 3,5,6,7,8,9 -$40

$3 Trifecta - 3,5,6,7 with 4 with 3,5,6,7,8,9 - $60

If you’re interested in a P3 here’s a hint:

R7 – 2,10

R8 – 2,3

R9 – 3,4,5,6,7,

$20