Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Pattison Canadian International (G1)

Canadian International a Global Affair

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

                   

A compact field of six runners representing the United States, Canada, Great Britain, France, Germany and Ireland converge Saturday in Toronto, Ontario for the Pattison Canadian International, the most-anticipated thoroughbred racing event of the Woodbine fall season. The Grade 1 showpiece for horses three years old and up encompassing the full 1 ½ miles on the gorgeous E.P. Taylor turf course carries a purse of $800,000.

Defending champion, Desert Encounter tops the list of turf specialists for the 82^nd edition. The David Simcock runner is seeking to be the first repeat winner of this race since Joshua Tree turned the trick in 2012-2013.

Post time is slated for 5:42 pm E.T.

Here is the field from the rail out.

1 - Ziyad (GB) - Maxime Guyon - Carlos Laffon-Parias – 1-1 - Bred in Great Britain, this French raced gelding has been pitted against some top competition since early June and exited with a win and two second-place finishes, narrowly missing a Group 1 win two back at St.Cloud. Owns a superb record at the distance, and if the course gets rain as expected on Saturday, he is one that will benefit from the soft ground.

2 - Pivoine (IRE) - Robert Hornby - Andrew Balding – 10 -1 - All but one of this Irish-bred runner’s races have been in England, with the lone exception being a start in the Arlington Million (G1) back in August where he finished fifth after a mild rally. His next race at Kempton can be excused as it came on the synthetic surface. Back on the turf he went for the Dubai Legacy Cup (G3) where he encountered significant traffic trouble, but still managed to run on for a second-place finish, one-length behind the winner who is also here. If you fancy that one, then this horse should merit your consideration too.

3 - Nessy - Chris Landeros - Ian Wilkes – 8 -1 The lone United States representative shipped north of the border last month and was a game second in the Northern Dancer (G1) over this course and distance. That event was his first attempt at the top level, and it was a huge performance from this six-year old, whose previous best effort was a Grade 3 win at Santa Anita last year. He’s on the improve and certainly has the pedigree for this race, as his full brother romped in the 2017 edition of this race.

4 - Desert Encounter (IRE) - Andrea Atzeni - David Simcock – 2-1 - The 2018 Canadian International winner has returned to the Woodbine turf for a chance to defend his title. The seven-year-old Irish-bred is riding a three-race winning streak. He enters this year’s edition in the same fashion as he did last season, by prepping in the Dubai Legacy Cup (G3). Has been consistent, not only this year, but throughout his career, sporting a record of 11-4-7 from 30 starts. Seems to be at his best from summertime onward, and he comes into this race in top form.

5 - Alounak (FR) - Clement Levoeuvre - Waldemar Hickst – 6-1 - French-bred runner has done practically all of his racing in Germany. He exits a narrow win by a head in a Group 3, the highest level he has attained. He didn’t threaten in a pair of Group 1 events over the summer, so questions remain as to whether he can make any type of impact, even in this small field.

6 - Pumpkin Rumble - Eurico Rosa Da Silva - Kevin Attard – 15 -1 – Eight-year old gelding is the local representative and tops the field in racing experience with 45 lifetime starts. Woodbine has been his home for the last two-and-a-half years after coming up from the U.S. after being claimed. Owner of 10 wins, split evenly between both countries with his latest coming in a restricted stake a few weeks ago on a road trip to Parx. Broke through in the graded ranks when scoring in the Valedictory stakes (G3) here last December. Faces quite the task here as hasn’t seen Grade 1 competition in two years.

ANALYSIS: At the time of this write-up, an 80% chance of rain is forecasted in the Toronto area on Saturday, which could leave the turf course less than firm, a determining factor which will bolster the chances of Ziyad, as he is highly proven on soft ground. He has good current form and an excellent record at the distance. He likes to be on the lead and in a race lacking speed, he can control the pace from his inside draw. Desert Encounter is rolling along with three consecutive wins. He is the lone G1 winner in the field and that award carries plenty of merit and must be respected. He too is proven at the distance, and it’s going to be tough to stop his winning momentum on good/firm turf.

WAGER: Either Ziyad or Desert Encounter should prevail. The two horses stand apart and are clearly superior and tower over the others on class, but the odds offered on each horse will be low. The tricky question is, which horse should be bet to win. If either?

Take the higher priced horse. Let the odds dictate your bet. In two-horse races, bet the overlays only, either to win or in exacta combinations.

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race.