Improbable vs. the rest in Rebel Stakes Div. I
By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
The
Rebel was split into two divisions in order to give the beleaguered California
horses a Kentucky Derby prep. Let’s take a look at Division I.
The Invaders
Improbable — There have been
comparisons made between this colt and Justify. Both are huge Chestnuts with
lots of chrome, and both have been unstoppable. As a juvenile, Improbable
looked like a much older horse in the Street Sense on Breeders’ Cup day, both
physically and in his demeanor. If he runs like he did last year, you’re
looking at the Rebel winner. Contender.
Galilean — Vote him most likely to
steal the race if Improbable stubs a hoof. Hollendorfer’s charge has been terrorizing the California
state-bred class his entire life and has the speed figures to handle this.
Beware California speed on the front end. Contender.
Extra Hope — It’s nice to see an old
timer like Mandella with
a Derby horse. Extra Hope wasn’t in the same class as Improbable and Mucho
Gusto last year, but this is a new year. They could be drag racing on the front
end early, which would benefit Extra Hope and Mike Smith. A finish in the top 3 wouldn’t surprise
me. Contender.
Easy Shot — The Desormeaux charge
didn’t embarrass himself in the RB Lewis Stakes. He wasn’t going to catch Mucho
Gusto, and just missed second to Gunmetal Gray by 3/4 length. A better start
could see him in with a shot. Exotics.
Local Hotshots
Long Range Toddy — Richard Eramia did a
nice job of getting Long Range Toddy over to the rail from post 10 in the
Southwest Stakes. The problem is that
they got stuck behind a wall of horses around the turn and Long Range Toddy was
stopped momentarily behind a tired Gray Attempt. Eramia sent Long Range Toddy between horses, and the colt responded, lengthening stride and
grabbing the third spot. Jock switch to Jon Court, from Long Range Toddy’s
regular jock Eramia, who jumps on Easy Shot. A good trip puts him right there. Contender.
Classy John — Here’s an interesting
colt. Never out of the money beating up on state-breds
and he’ll be winging it on the front end.
That last race at Delta Downs wasn’t bad, but (there’s always a but), his
pedigree and running style screams speed. He’ll liven things up early, and fold
like a lawn chair in the stretch. Maybe he can hang on for a minor award.
Creatively Placed
Corruze — Chis Hartman shakes
things up, switching from turf sprints to dirt routes with this son of Into
Mischief. No reason it won’t work. Corruze’s half-sister
Rugula placed in the Fantasy (G2), and
Honey Bee Stakes at Oaklawn and most of
his other half-siblings were best on dirt. Over the last five years, Hartman is
21% with the turf to dirt switch, but speed figures aren’t the best. Lower Exotics longshot, at best.
Ninth Street — Big horse in a small pond at Delta Downs. They had to send out a search party to find
him after the Southwest. Blinkers off might help him find the finish line
faster, but he’s gonna need a lot more
than that. Pass.
Proud Nation — Rumor has it they had
to hold up the start of the next race in order
to let Proud Nation find the finish line in his 3-year-old-debut. The
full brother to Golden Rod (G2) winner West Coast Belle is still a maiden and belongs
in either Race 1, 3 5 or 11. The race’s “why?” horse. Pass.
Track bias: Over the last ten years, we’ve seen a
transformation of the Rebel Stakes into a display of California speed, and Bob
Baffert’s charges have dominated six of the last eight editions. Pace pressers have won four of the last ten
Rebels, while pacesetters won three. Late
running closers have hit the board in the last three editions.
Selections:
I’m
not going to get creative and look for a long-shot winner. Baffert owns this race; he’s saddled six of the last ten winners. Improbable’s
outside post is to his benefit. He can get a clean trip settling off the pace
on the outside. The distance is well within his scope, so going wide shouldn’t
bother him, and there’s not much in here to challenge him, and just 80% fitness
would still get him the victory. Galilean to Improbable’s inside can go
to the lead or sit off what could be a
contentious pace. He’s Improbable’s biggest threat.
#9 IMPROBABLE
#8 GALILEAN
#1 EXTRA HOPE
#2 LONG RANGE TODDY
Handigambling
Your
best bet is to hope Improbable isn’t cranked for his best and a longshot
surprises. It happened last week in the Gotham when “can’t lose” Instagrand did
just that, in his first start off a long layoff. Use Improbable on some tickets,
and leave him off in a few others. Let’s
toss a few more horses into the mix for the exotics.
$0.20 Super
Key: 9/8,1,2,7,4,3 = $24
$0.20 Super
Key: 8/9,1,2,7,4,3 = $24
$0.20 Super
Key: 1/8,9,2,7,4,3 = $24
Total bet: $72
Note: If Improbable looks hot and bothered in the post parade, take
a look at the other listed contenders. If their odds are attractive, toss a few
dollars on them across the board.
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