Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Fairgrounds Oaks

A Kentucky Oaks Stepping Stone

By: Alex Sausville, RTIP Podcast

Despite being the penultimate event on a fantastic day of racing down in the Big Easy, the importance of the Fair Grounds Oaks may succeed all on the first Friday in May. 

The horses who enjoyed success in this prestigious prep race have followed those performances with wins in the Kentucky Oaks. Horses like Silverbulletday, Ashado, Rachel Alexandra and most recently 2012 winner Believe You Can have proven the true value of running at the Fair Grounds.

This year’s race includes a heavy favorite out of the Tom Amoss barn who enjoyed a front running victory in the G2 Rachel Alexandra back in February. Serengeti Empress, a daughter of Alternation, has been at the peak of discussions for favoritism for the Kentucky Oaks, but first she will need to showcase her talent one more time in front of the Louisiana faithful.

At a 6/5 morning line and with a very impressive form, Serengeti Empress will be tough to beat. However, after getting the front to herself in the Rachel Alexandra and with a slew of speed horses shipping in for the Oaks, there is value to be found in race 12 at the Fair Grounds.

Race Analysis:

First things first, let's give Serengeti Empress her due. Romping in the Pocahontas at Churchill and the Ellis Park Debutante(Going 7 furlongs) were surely very impressive feats. This is a very talented horse and the win in the Rachel Alexandra continued to show that. With that being said, she has been able to set the pace all her own way in her last two wins, and the one win she did not, she was being pushed by Wakeeta, an 80-1 longshot at Ellis in which the horses behind her were not talented enough to close. Not taking any credit away from a great performance, but when the factors have not been ideal for Serengeti Empress, the performances have been where the weakness lies. With a 7th place finish in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies and a 4th in the Schuylerville, Serengeti Empress was in company with Catherinethegreat at Saratoga and trailing eventual winner Jaywalk in Kentucky. Those races were definitely much more talented fields than she will face this weekend, but that isn’t to say there isn’t some hidden talent waiting for her on Saturday.

With the number of shippers coming in and more importantly the number of pace setters that accompany the field, it's going to be a much tougher day to get an unaccompanied trip around the racetrack. A vast majority of these horses have shown speed, although several come out of the Rachel Alexandra and sat right behind Serengeti Empress anyway. Both Liora and Street Band sat good trips but had nothing to really close into.

If I had to guess one horse, I think that will push the pace, I am going to the Delta Downs shipper Crescentcitypretty, a horse that is extending her distance from 7 furlongs and has been on the lead in all three lifetime starts. Although the distance will be tough for this horse in such a big race, Crescentcitypretty could be the one who tosses the monkey wrench into the pace scenario.

With these factors, I will look right to the Peter Eurton trained Slewgoodtobetrue. This is a horse that has her best success just off the pace in two wins at Santa Anita. Although bumping up into stakes company, this horse was a winner at this distance last time out and 2 for 2 in route races. With Florent Geroux aboard, Slewgoodtobetrue should be in the right spot to pounce as they turn for home.

Another one who really needs to be closer to the front but has the ability to close is Eres Tu. The only horse in the field that would be considered a true closer, Eres Tu made up big ground in the Rachel Alexandra to get 3rd and re-rallied to do so. With a jockey change to Jose Ortiz, I would expect this horse to be in a much better position and with what should be a much more favorable pace for this horse’s running style.

And lastly, I will give Sweet Diane and Joe Bravo a chance to be in a similar spot to Slewgoodtobetrue. If you look back at her past races, they have included an ample amount of traveling. The 13 ½ length victory in MSW company at Penn National was on a good track and was impressive but the field was not up to par with these. Despite that, the horse has good races going a mile and has the ability to stalk this pace and if in the right spot can showcase a big effort.

My Plays:

$40 to win on 7 - Slewgoodtobetrue

$5 Ex Key Box - 7/2,4,6 = $30

$5 Ex Key Box - 6/2,4,7 = $30

Total: $100

Final Thoughts:

This race is Serengeti Empress’s race to lose and if everything goes like it did in the Rachel Alexandra, we will see a very similar result. However, this field has some new faces and what I feel to be some unproven talent at the stakes level. I truly believe that after seeing that last race, this field will not make it as easy for Serengeti Empress and will have a legitimate shot to dethrone the Oaks favorite.

Lastly, based on how much I am foreseeing to be wagered on Serengeti Empress, I'm expecting a lit up tote board at the Fair Grounds when the race goes official. 

Alex Sausville is a student in the University of ZA Race Track Industry Program. Check out their twitter at: @OffTheTurfRTIP