Friday, December 7, 2018

Handicapper's Corner: Los Alamitos Futurity (G1)

Baffert Aiming for Five Straight Futurity Wins

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power



The Los Alamitos Futurity (formerly known as the CashCall Futurity) is the last Grade One race of the year held for two-year-old colts, and the top four will earn points towards a berth in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. 


Since the race’s inception in 1981, 16 colts who hit the board in the Futurity have also run in the money in at least one of the Triple Crown races.  Six won the Kentucky Derby and three each the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. 2014’s Los Futurity hero Dortmund finished third in the 2015 Kentucky Derby.

Bob Baffert has dominated the Los Alamitos Futurity with a record ten victories and has won the last four editions of the 1 1/16-mile race.  This year, Baffert conditions two of the six contenders. IMPROBABLE and MUCHO GUSTO, are lightly raced undefeated stakes winners, both trained by Baffert, and will likely vie for betting favoritism.  



In the one mile Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs on Breeders’ Cup Friday, IMPROBABLE blew away a field of last out maiden winners by 7 1/4 lengths. The son of City Zip isn’t a need the lead type and can press or sit off the pace. The only drawback for the large Chestnut colt is the rail post and the potential of being blocked in by outside speed.

MUCHO GUSTO wired the field in both outings and was last seen defeating SAVAGERY and EXTRA HOPE in the seven-furlong Bob Hope Stakes (G3) at Del Mar. By Mucho Macho Man out of a daughter of Giant’s Causeway, Mucho Gusto should love the extra distance.

After wiring the field by 11 lengths in his maiden victory, SAVAGERY was dueled into submission by graded stakes placed Sparkyville in the Sunny Slope Stakes, then Mucho Gusto did same in the Bob Hope. This time around, trainer Peter Miller takes the blinkers off the son of Bellamy Road in hopes of getting him to relax, and Geroux Florent takes over from Bejarano.

After winning his maiden DUELING was tossed into the deep end of the kiddie pool in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The longshot ran pretty much as expected, checking in sixth, after being wide the entire way. The Hollendorfer trainee is back in a little bit easier spot and having Mike Smith as a pilot can’t hurt.


The late-running EXTRA HOPE found the Bob Hope Stakes a little too short and gets a chance to stretch back out to 1 1/6-miles. He and Dueling are the only colts in the field with experience at the distance. 

The ironically named KING OF SPEED is a one-run closer who, after a couple of bad beats on dirt at the beginning of his career, found success as a stakes-winning turf sprinter. This is clearly a “what is he thinking” moment for Jeff Bonde. Either that or the connections have caught an early case of Derby fever.

 Selections
78% of the races at Los Alamitos are won by pace setters or pressers, usually from the rail.  The blinkers off on Savagery may be an effort to get him to relax, and his sprint-oriented pedigree makes him vulnerable at the distance. That leaves Mucho Gusto as the lone early speed. Savagery and Improbable won’t be too far off the pace, with Dueling and Extra Hope right behind. King of Speed does his best running late.
I’m sensing a Baffert exacta unless one of his contenders stubs a hoof.

#1 IMPROBABLE (6-5)
#6 MUCHO GUSTO (3-1)
#3 DUELING (6-1)

HANDIGAMBING
Part of being a successful bettor is knowing when to skip a race. Neither of the early favorites seems to have weak spots, and there’s no logical longshot, except maybe for Dueling. Toss a couple of bucks on Dueling if you must bet and if the odds deem it worthwhile.

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