Handicapper's Corner: Harlan's Holiday Stakes (G3)

Audible Deafening Favorite in Harlan's Holiday Stakes

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The one 1/16-mile Harlan’s Holiday Stakes contested at Gulfstream Park since 2011, attracted a small field of six older colts and geldings.  Todd Pletcher has saddled two winners in the Grade 3 event, Liam’s Map in 2014 and Stanford in 2016. 

This year, Pletcher sends out the swift Audible, and the lesser known Argentinean bred, Village King.   


Let’s review the field.

Contenders

AUDIBLE is a perfect two for two at Gulfstream. After taking the summer off, the bay son of Into Mischief reappeared in the seven-furlong Cherokee Run, besting the field by two lengths. He’ll be the overwhelming favorite and is the class of the field.

After a steady career as a turf router, VILLAGE KING proved to be adept over the fast Aqueduct dirt in the Red Smith Stakes, which was taken off the turf. True, my 95-year-old mother could have run the early fractions faster, and it was painful to watch a bunch of turf horses staggering home over the dirt, but Village King was determined and won by a nose, earning the second highest Brisnet late pace speed figure in the field.  Posts 4 through 7 are winning at 21%. 

APOSTLE gets back to dirt after a failed experiment on the lawn. The very well-bred son of Medaglia d’Oro is a half-brother to multiple G3 stakes winner Carve, and his dam Apt (A.P. Indy) is a half-sister to the champion and sire Blame. Apostle has a later—maturing pedigree and is rounding into form, and he should be forwardly placed.

SIR ANTHONY is looking to make it four in a row in the Harlan’s Holiday. He picks up a check more often than not and has won and placed in state-bred stakes. He’ll make a late run under Brian Hernandez, Jr. and could round out the exotics.

Pretenders

After nine tries this year, MINUTE MADNESS won his last race, a $16K optional claimer at Calder…er.. Gulfstream Park West, his first off the claim for Peter Walder. The last time the hardy five-year-old gelding won was July 2017. Minute Madness has some speed and may show early interest.

SIGHTFORSOREEYES may be winging it on the lead in a race that has little early speed. He sandwiched an allowance win at Thistledown between poor showings in the Vosburgh and Clark Handicaps. I’ve never seen a horse earn a late pace speed figure of “1” until I saw this guy’s past performances. There’s no place to go but up!

SELECTIONS

Did I mention there’s no confirmed pacesetter in here?  AUDIBLE could show speed from the rail, but Castellano will likely be content to track one of the long shots and take over in the stretch. Hard to look beyond him here, as his only losses have come in his debut and the Kentucky Derby, and he was third in both of those races.    

APOSTLE isn’t in Audible’s class – yet, but he’s starting to put it together, and there are no world beaters in this race. If for some reason Audible stubs a hoof, Apostle could be right there. 

SIR ANTHONY will be running late, and he’s been in the money eight of 13 lifetime.   

I’m not totally convinced that VILLAGE KING is a dirt horse. True, he got a triple-digit late pace speed figure in his last race, but it was painful to watch him stagger home in the 1 1/8 – mile race in 1:53. By comparison, Maximus Mischief’s final time in the Remsen was 1:51.34.

#1 AUDIBLE (2-5)

#5 APOSTLE (5-1)

#6 SIR ANTHONY (20-1)

#4 VILLAGE KING (4-1)

Handigambling

A short-priced favorite is beatable if there’s a chink in his armor.  We’ve seen overwhelming favorites come up short in the past, that’s why they run races. That being said, unless Audible is caught flat-footed coming out of the gate, is boxed in and can’t make a run, or just doesn’t feel like running, he’s the likely winner — no money to be made there.   

Either sit back and watch the race or toss your virtual ThoroFan funny money into a superfecta.

$4.00 Super box - #1, #5, #6, #4 = $96.00

The remaining $4 might get you a bottle of water or a program.