Rebel Stakes Showdown: American vs. Royal
By: Laurie Ross, Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds
Over
the last sixteen years, the Rebel Stakes
has produced a roll call of elite stars that figure prominently in the
Triple Crown events.Fans at Oaklawn
have seen the likes of American Pharoah, Smarty Jones, Curlin, Afleet Alex,
Lookin at Lucky, Oxbow and Creator compete in the 1 1/16 mile Grade 2 event. Steppenwolfer and Ride on Curlin, placed in
the Rebel, plus the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, respectively.
A
field of eleven 2017 Kentucky Derby
hopefuls are primed to contest the Rebel Stakes. The winner will earn 50
points towards a reservation in the Derby starting gate.
Oh say, can you see…
We all know that Bob
Baffert ships his best Derby hopefuls to Oaklawn. Since Baffert started
this practice, he’s won six of the last seven editions of the Rebel. The one
time his horse didn’t win, he placed third.
This
year, Baffert’s hopes lie with American Anthem (Bodemeister
- Indy's Windy, by A.P. Indy). Is American Anthem good enough to give
Baffert his fourth consecutive Rebel Stakes trophy? As much as I like this
horse, I’ll say not this time.
In January, American Anthem gave G1 Stakes hero Gormley all he could handle in the Sham
Stakes. Gormley’s experience earned him the victory by a short nose. The Grade 3 contest was essentially a one
mile match race over an uncharacteristically muddy track at Santa Anita. In in
the San Felipe Stakes last week, Gormely could manage no better than a tired,
distant fourth place against the tragically brilliant Mastery.
Warning signs for the Rebel favorite? I wonder how much the fight
with Gormley took out of American Anthem.
Additionally,
American Anthem is making his third career
start in the Rebel. His speed figure (Bris) jumped eight points from his maiden
win to the Sham Stakes. Yes, American Anthem has two sharp works, but his final
breeze with Mor Spirit was just so-so, and he was under pressure to stay with Mor
Spirit past the wire.
I love American Anthem’s pedigree, but his late pace speed figures
hit a sour note and there are too many warning signs that he may regress. Read American
Anthem’s pedigree
profile.
Eeny Meeny Miny…
Royal Mo (Uncle Mo - Royal Irish
Lass, by Saint Ballado) ruled his competition in the RB Lewis Stakes (G3) in
February, beating Grade 1 placed Irap by a widening 3 ½ lengths. There’s a lot
of speed in the Rebel. So, will Victor Espinoza
employ the same tactics in the Rebel against cheap speed or try to rate? Royal
Mo gets better with each start and he could be the one to beat.
Untrapped (Trappe Shot - Exit Three, by Giant's
Causeway) was second in the LeComte and Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. He’s
coming back in three weeks in an effort to gain more qualifying points for the
Derby. His speed figures have improved with each start and he owns the highest
late pace speed figure in the field.
Petrov (Flatter - Saracina, by Bertrando)
was beaten like a roan headed stepchild, first by Uncontested in the Smarty
Jones and then by One Liner in the
Southwest. Ron Moquett’s charge likes
to stalk the pace, but is developing a bad case of second-itis. Petrov’s speed figures are improving with every
start and he tries hard.
Speed Traps
Uncontested and Malagacy have speed to spare and may be winging it on the front
end. If they hook up in a speed duel, it could run the rest into the ground and
set the Rebel up for a one run closer.
Instigators
Silver Bullion (Pioneerof the Nile - Love Buzz, by
Silver Charm) regressed slightly in his first start against winners last time
out, and Silver Bullion hasn’t shown the speed to be competitive here.
Appalachian
Gem (Gemologist
- Briar Hill Dixie, by Dixieland Band) was a determined winner in his first try
around two turns, and he has the pedigree to improve with maturity and some
distance. Not much class in Appalachian Gem’s first two generations, but his
third dam won the Marion Van Berg Memorial Hcp. Guess who trains Appalachian
Gem? Jack Van Burg. And when was the
last time you saw Gary Stevens on a
30-1 shot? Call me nostalgic, but I’m rootin’ for the old timers.
Bringing up the rear..
Lookin At
Lee (Lookin
At Lucky - Langara Lass, by Langfuhr) is one of those horses who make a furious
rush from the back of the pack, but unlike Zenyatta or Victory Gallop, Lee
never gets there in time. Maybe Ricardo
Santana, Jr. needs to set the alarm clock for earlier in the race.
Sonneteer (Midnight Lute - Ours, by Half Ours)
is a career maiden. But don’t be so quick to dismiss him. Sonneteer owns the
second highest late pace speed figure in the field and his one-run style plays
against him on the California tracks. Could he be a live longshot or is he this
year’s Laoban?
Silver Dust (Tapit - Filare l'Oro, by
Hard Spun) ate a lot of dust in the Southwest. He spent most of his time in
traffic and passed tired horses to get a minor award a dozen lengths behind One
Liner. Maybe he shook some of the dust off in his first 3YO start, but I think
he’ll run into some dust busters here. He could step up for a minor award with
an easier trip. Silver Dust’s dam won the 1 1/8 mile Virginia Oaks over the
lawn and she’s a half-sister to the hard-knocking veteran handicap horse
Gouldings Green. Perhaps a surface
change will bring out the shine for Silver Dust.
Final
Thoughts
In
the last ten editions of the Rebel Stakes, four winners led the field on a
merry chase. Two pressed the pace, while three sat mid-pack early before making
their moves. Only one was a closer.
The Play:
$2 Super Box: #10, #7 #4, #5
$2 Super Box: #10, #11 #4, #5
$2 Super Box: #7, #10, #6, #11
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