El Areeb the Smart Gotham Stakes Choice
By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Two
months of preparation, workouts, racing, and some fine tuning remain before the
first Saturday in May. Three-year olds with Kentucky Derby aspirations
hit the Big Apple this week to showcase their talents in the Gotham
Stakes at Aqueduct Race Track. Traditionally, the contest serves
as a prep for the Wood Memorial and over several decades, big-time
superstars such as Dr Fager (1967) and Secretariat (1973) have won
the Gotham.
Chad
Brown won last year with Shagaf and the trainer looks for a repeat as
he saddles up a pair of runners. A total of ten combatants
will clash on the inner dirt track at a distance of one-mile and a
sixteenth in this G3 event that has a purse of $300k
dollars. The race doles out Kentucky Derby points in a
50-20-10-5 allotment to the first four finishers. Let take a look at the
participants from the rail out.
PP Horse -
Jockey/Trainer
1 J Boys Echo - Albarado/Romans--Kentucky-bred
colt got his first journey over the inner strip last month in the Withers
and the 3rd-place effort was very commendable. He broke from the far outside
post that day and was wide because of it. Today he gets the extreme inside draw,
and must find a way to turn things around over the top two that handled him
pretty easily at Aqueduct. He stepped into stakes company for the first
time two starts back and finished fourth in the G3 Delta Downs Jackpot. Overall
record has been decent, but I'm not sure if he can make an impact here,
but figures in the exotics.
2 Gaetano - C
Velasquez/Preciado--Ships in from Parx with the most experience in the group,
having 10 career starts. Took this horse some time to figure things
out, plus last time out in a starter allowance, he was all-out to win by
a scant nose. He broke his maiden in maiden claiming company,
immediately throwing up a red flag to me about his ability. This is a massive
jump in class. For longshot dreamers only.
3 Miggsy - Arroyo/Rodriguez--Makes
his stakes debut and is one of two in here from this trainer who is
winning at a 22% clip at this meet. Colt has ran well in his brief three race
career, two of them on this track, but he barely held on to win against
maidens last time out. Pass.
4 El Areeb -
McCarthy/Lynch--In his current four race winning
streak, he announced himself as one of the leading contenders on the
Triple Crown trail with dominating wins in the G3 Jerome Stakes and Withers
Stakes, both on the inner track at the Big A. This guy has been
knocked unfairly because of the NY winter competition he's faced,
which has been moderate at best, but its not his fault he keeps winning.
He'll need tougher company to prove he belongs with the elite,
but that opportunity must wait at least another start, as the
opponents he tackles here are 0 for 5 collectively in graded stakes
attempts and don't appear to be any world beaters. His affinity
for the inner track is definitely a mighty advantage. Has worked fast in the
interim for this race. Drew well and is obvious favorite.
5 Glennrichment -
Cancel/Rodriguez--The other half of the Rodriquez duo. Has just one runner-up
finish in his three career starts, and that came last time out over this track
last month. Colt has shown steady improvement, but he's still a maiden and is
way over his head in this spot.
6 True Timber -
Carmouche/McLaughlin--Stumbled badly at the start of the Withers last out,
was rushed up to set the pace, and then put in a game effort to hold
second. Following a nice maiden score from off-the-pace in his second lifetime
race back in December, he was stretched out two-turns for the first time and
finished a well beaten third in the Jerome over a muddy track, in what was the
stakes debut for this colt. He broke his maiden on this inner surface last
year with a closing run from far back. Has a bit of upside and could
get a piece, but I don't envision him winning.
7 Apartfromthecrowd - Vargas,
Jr/Brown --One of two from the Chad Brown stable. He broke maiden
ranks in a sharp effort two starts back here at Aqueduct,
but was a somewhat disappointing fifth last out in the Withers. Colt has
raced okay in his brief career, and will garner some respect because of his
sensational trainer, but will need a career-defining performance to get it
done.
8 So Conflated -
Gutierrez/O'Neill--Last out, he was victorious in the 100k Cal Derby on
the synthetic surface at Golden Gate, and two starts back he was moved up
to first in a race where he finished second by a nose. Could have
stayed in California, but shipped to the Fairgrounds last week for the Risen
Star, but scratched due to a wide post draw. Now has been
shipped to New York for his first graded encounter, so trainer O'Neill, who is
trying to get this runner on the Derby trail, must think
his horse can handle the journey. Has talent and has faced quality
company in his races on the West Coast. If he can work out a good trip, he's a
major threat.
9 Cloud Computing -
Franco/Brown--Another runner sent out by trainer Chad Brown. Was well bet in
his 6-furlong debut and he sure did not disappoint with a smart looking maiden
win, after overcoming a poor start. His bloodline indicates he should get
better with extra ground. Colt looks to keep the momentum going and the
barn wins 26% with runners going from a sprint to a route. Not ignoring this
one.
10 Action Everyday -
Maragh/Pletcher--Colt has won both of his starts, including breaking his maiden
in fine fashion over 7-furlongs at Tampa against one of
his stablemates no less, and could even have more to offer. Takes
a major step up in class and gets equipped with blinkers for this,
his stakes debut.
ANALYSIS:
Having enough speed to establish good early
position could prove to be the key to victory in this renewal of the Gotham
Stakes. The pace shouldn't be inordinately slow like it was in the Withers, but it doesn't appear like it will
be blazing either. The race seems to set up well for El Areeb. The Cathal Lynch runner has flashed some of the best
early foot in the field, as well as the best speed figures and has
also displayed adaptability. Jockey Trevor McCarthy, if he chooses,
can control the pace, or rate in behind the
lead before asking his mount to do what he does best.
The Pick: I hate picking the favorite, but El Areeb is the choice. However,
betting on him at paltry win odds is out of the
question. He's looked very professional his last two races. Both
times receiving good trips and should benefit from another one out of post
four. It's not a tough group, and he is truly the class of the
field.
I
will use him in the win spot in my exactas and trifectas over: So Conflated - Cloud Computing - J Boys
Echo and True Timber.
Good
luck and as always, enjoy the race.
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