Friday, April 29, 2016

Handicapper's Corner: San Francisco Mile (G3)

San Francisco Mile Belongs to Favorites

By: Reinier Macatangay (Lady and The Track)

Turf races are more susceptible to be won by the class choice. On dirt, speed types with less class can slip away and steal a race, but on turf class and late-pace figures become more important.

After looking through the San Francisco Mile (GIII) field, scheduled for this Saturday at Golden Gate Fields, the two “class” runners certainly look unstoppable. Bettors will need some creativity in order to profit from this race.

Below is a rundown of each horse.

1. Tamarando (20-1) - No wins in his last 10 starts. He really was exposed as an average horse.

2. Home Run Kitten (10-1) - Hey, this kitten owns one win out of his last 10 starts. Not seeing it.

3. Kenjisstorm (20-1) - Bal a Bali finishes several lengths ahead every time these two meet. Why would anything change in this spot?

4. Docs Legacy (15-1) - This one rallied nicely to win an allowance race over the same surface last time. He overcame a half mile in 49 seconds to close from behind, but fractions mean less on Tapeta.

5. Montego Bay (15-1) - Going from an open claiming race to a graded stakes event is always a difficult task.

6. Perfectly Majestic (15-1) - As a 4-year-old gelding, some upside exists. Note the second-place finish to Om four starts ago.

7. G.G. Ryder (10-1) - The defending champion has an outside chance, but overall, his class feels a step below the top horses for this edition.

8. P Club (30-1) - The winner of over $84,000 only cost $2k at auction last fall. He won two races since the sale to justify the purchase, but looks over his head in this spot.

9. Royal F J (30-1) - Old warriors attract a following, but this nine-year-old gelding lost by eight lengths in a Los Alamitos optional claimer, one race after a 15-length drubbing in another optional claimer on the track. Pass.

10. Terrys Tom Cat (20-1) - Although he won an optional claimer at Del Mar three starts ago, his class falls a bit below some of these.

11. Alert Bay (6-1) - Last year’s City of Hope Mile (GII) winner at Santa Anita Park tries hard and sometimes gets the job done. He lost five straight races though since his big win.

12. Bal a Bali (2-1) - Deserving favorite only ran a nose behind Bolo in his previous start. The South American star lands in a nice spot to pick up another graded stakes victory.

13. Gabriel Charles (3-1) - While the layoff may concern some, the six-year-old horse fired off a six-month break in the 2013 Oceanside Stakes at Del Mar. He will prove a formidable opponent to Bal a Bali.

14. Unusually Green (30-1) - The son of Unusual Heat shows several competitive races in his back form on the Southern California circuit, but Bal a Bali and Gabriel Charles will prove too much.

Closing Thoughts:

Bal a Bali and Gabriel Charles simply appear too much for these horses, unless a crazy pace scenario occurs. If longshots must be used, then Docs Legacy or Perfectly Majestic might be interesting.

$100 Handigambling:

$15 Exacta Wheel: Bal a Bali, Gabriel Charles / Docs Legacy, Perfectly Majestic

($60 in all)

$40 to win on Bal a Bali

1 comment:

  1. While this place gets a little crowded and you might have to push through occasionally, it's hard not to mention that a definite plus in venues in Los Angeles is that you'll rarely have to wait on line in their large bathrooms.